Elliott Wave Analysis

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    Posted: 24 June 2012 12:06 AM #181

    Where is that guy, indeed…

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 02:50 PM #182

    Mace is the only one (I know) who could confirm this:

    I’m thinking that if my EW count is correct, then this downwave either completed at 575.42, or IF we have another leg down, THEN it will retrace no lower than 566.70.

    This assumes (the labelling hierarchy hurts my head because the forest contains all these fractal trees):

    V.3.iv completed at 528.50*
    V.3.v = 528.50 to ...

    V.3.v(1)  = 528.50 to 581.50, length = 53
    V.3.v(2)  = 581.50 to 548.50, length = 33 (~ 61.8% retrace)
    V.3.v(3)i   = 548.50 to 588.50, length = 40
    V.3.v(3)ii = 588.50 to 566.70, length = 21.80 (~ 55% retrace)

    V.3.v(3)iii = 566.70 to ...

    wave 1 of above = 566.70 to 590.00, length = 23.30
    wave 2 ”  ” ”  = 590.00 to 575.42, length = 14.58 (~61.8% retrace)

    Right now, corrective wave 2 down is a 3-wave ABC zigzag (2 legs down).  It could also be a 5-wave zigzag (3 legs down).  Mace says, “wave 2 retraces 23.6% to 99% of length of wave 1, norm is 61.8%.”  Well, we’re sitting on the norm.  Importantly, wave 2 can’t retrace more than the low of wave 1, and that’s 566.70.

    So…if we go lower than 566.70, I have to scrap this count and go back to the drawing board.


    *I’m using 528.50 (which I observed intraday) versus the 100 shares that traded at 522.18 which seems more in the “misprint” category to me.

    [ Edited: 24 June 2012 02:57 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 02:54 PM #183

    lovemyipad - 18 June 2012 10:45 AM

    This count is similar to Mace’s and mine:

    AAPL EW

    Note: he’s showing both the bullish and the bearish forecasts, two mutually exclusive either/or outcomes, bullish (top right) OR bearish (bottom right).  And YES, we can all enumerate the plethora of fundamental reasons to support UP! smile

    I going to join this guy’s EW group because besides Mace, he’s the only EW guy I’ve seen whose EW counts for AAPL make sense; and without Mace here to tell me if I’m completely off-base, I don’t know if I’m getting better or worse at this!! :(

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 06:21 PM #184

    Maybe Mace doesn’t want anything to do with us anymore.

    Maybe he was the one getting those 1000%+ theoretical gains on the AAPL daily options casino floor the past three Fridays.  Now super-mega-rich, there’s no need to mingle with the small people.

    He still logs in now and then, but he’s not posting…

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 11:41 PM #185

    lovemyipad - 24 June 2012 05:50 PM

    This assumes (the labelling hierarchy hurts my head because the forest contains all these fractal trees):

    V.3.iv completed at 528.50*
    V.3.v = 528.50 to ...

    V.3.v(1)  = 528.50 to 581.50, length = 53
    V.3.v(2)  = 581.50 to 548.50, length = 33 (~ 61.8% retrace)
    V.3.v(3)i   = 548.50 to 588.50, length = 40
    V.3.v(3)ii = 588.50 to 566.70, length = 21.80 (~ 55% retrace)

    V.3.v(3)iii = 566.70 to ...

    wave 1 of above = 566.70 to 590.00, length = 23.30
    wave 2 ”  ” ”  = 590.00 to 575.42, length = 14.58 (~61.8% retrace)

    Right now, corrective wave 2 down is a 3-wave ABC zigzag (2 legs down).  It could also be a 5-wave zigzag (3 legs down).  Mace says, “wave 2 retraces 23.6% to 99% of length of wave 1, norm is 61.8%.”  Well, we’re sitting on the norm.  Importantly, wave 2 can’t retrace more than the low of wave 1, and that’s 566.70.

    This numbering system stuff is giving me a headache too, Ms. IPad.  But I like to believe that corrective wave 2 is 3-wave, with 2 down legs; and that Friday was the start of impulsive wave 3.  Can waves last more than 1 day, such that if we go up Monday and Tuesday, it would be considered part of wave 4?

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 11:58 PM #186

    rutgersguy92 - 25 June 2012 02:41 AM
    lovemyipad - 24 June 2012 05:50 PM

    This assumes (the labelling hierarchy hurts my head because the forest contains all these fractal trees):

    V.3.iv completed at 528.50*
    V.3.v = 528.50 to ...

    V.3.v(1)  = 528.50 to 581.50, length = 53
    V.3.v(2)  = 581.50 to 548.50, length = 33 (~ 61.8% retrace)
    V.3.v(3)i   = 548.50 to 588.50, length = 40
    V.3.v(3)ii = 588.50 to 566.70, length = 21.80 (~ 55% retrace)

    V.3.v(3)iii = 566.70 to ...

    wave 1 of above = 566.70 to 590.00, length = 23.30
    wave 2 ”  ” ”  = 590.00 to 575.42, length = 14.58 (~61.8% retrace)

    Right now, corrective wave 2 down is a 3-wave ABC zigzag (2 legs down).  It could also be a 5-wave zigzag (3 legs down).  Mace says, “wave 2 retraces 23.6% to 99% of length of wave 1, norm is 61.8%.”  Well, we’re sitting on the norm.  Importantly, wave 2 can’t retrace more than the low of wave 1, and that’s 566.70.

    This numbering system stuff is giving me a headache too, Ms. IPad.  But I like to believe that corrective wave 2 is 3-wave, with 2 down legs; and that Friday was the start of impulsive wave 3.  Can waves last more than 1 day, such that if we go up Monday and Tuesday, it would be considered part of wave 4?


    For corrective wave 2 to be a five leg (with 3 downlegs), it would mean that we switched to a downtrend, and that the single red line (in lieu of a more familiar 5 step) from 588.58 to 566.70 would have been the switchover from uptrend to downtrend.  However, the next upward 3-leg gave us a higher high, which isn’t how downtrends go in EW. 

    So, I’m of the mind that the two movements I described above are “random” (they form a pretty good-looking “W”, and start and end at virtually the same number), and that, if you remove them and fudge the 588.58 and 590 as being the same number, you could see that we just finished a wave 2, and have started a wave 3 up. 

    A little simplistic, but it gets the job done.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 12:12 AM #187

    rutgersguy92 - 25 June 2012 02:41 AM
    lovemyipad - 24 June 2012 05:50 PM

    ...
    V.3.v(3)iii = 566.70 to ...

    wave 1 of above = 566.70 to 590.00, length = 23.30
    wave 2 ”  ” ”  = 590.00 to 575.42, length = 14.58 (~61.8% retrace)

    Right now, corrective wave 2 down is a 3-wave ABC zigzag (2 legs down).  It could also be a 5-wave zigzag (3 legs down).  Mace says, “wave 2 retraces 23.6% to 99% of length of wave 1, norm is 61.8%.”  Well, we’re sitting on the norm.  Importantly, wave 2 can’t retrace more than the low of wave 1, and that’s 566.70.

    This numbering system stuff is giving me a headache too, Ms. IPad.  But I like to believe that corrective wave 2 is 3-wave, with 2 down legs; and that Friday was the start of impulsive wave 3.  Can waves last more than 1 day, such that if we go up Monday and Tuesday, it would be considered part of wave 4?

    Okay, if it hurts your MIT brain, maybe I don’t feel quite so badly. wink  Yes, waves can last more than 1 day, and yes, it will be tricky figuring out whether additional upside from here is the start of our impulse wave 3 or continuation of our corrective wave 2. 

    I *think* the way we go about it is: minimally, wave 3 needs to take out 590, then after that, we need to see a retrace that doesn’t go lower than xxx (566?).  Have to read up to double-check, but I remember Mace giving me guidelines post-earnings when I hoped we were starting a new 1-2 (we weren’t) versus the ABC corrective wave continuing (it did), and he nailed it.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 12:16 AM #188

    rutgersguy92 - 25 June 2012 02:58 AM

    For corrective wave 2 to be a five leg (with 3 downlegs), it would mean that we switched to a downtrend, and that the single red line (in lieu of a more familiar 5 step) from 588.58 to 566.70 would have been the switchover from uptrend to downtrend.  However, the next upward 3-leg gave us a higher high, which isn’t how downtrends go in EW. 

    So, I’m of the mind that the two movements I described above are “random” (they form a pretty good-looking “W”, and start and end at virtually the same number), and that, if you remove them and fudge the 588.58 and 590 as being the same number, you could see that we just finished a wave 2, and have started a wave 3 up. 

    A little simplistic, but it gets the job done.

    RG, I like it!!!  I have to noodle on it a bit more, but I like it!!!  And thanks so much for playing in the EW sandbox with me…it was getting very lonely in here… smile

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 05:14 PM #189

    Updated guess:

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 11:19 PM #190

    AAPL-EW DAILY CHART: (with latest guess on wave count)