Elliott Wave Analysis

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    Posted: 22 February 2012 12:16 PM #46

    Looking at the chart, there is an alternative count (which I forgot after reading Tony count but did mention here before):

    wave one = $354.24 to $426.70
    wave two = $426.70 to $363.32 (which is a clear zigzag, not sure why Tony said is an impulse)
    wave three = $363.32 to $526.29
    wave four = $526.29 to ... which is usually a flat or a triangle, seldom zigzag.  This count is consistent with your intuition.  If this is true, the sideways movement could last one to three months.

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    Posted: 22 February 2012 09:59 PM #47

    Mace - 22 February 2012 04:16 PM

    Looking at the chart, there is an alternative count (which I forgot after reading Tony count but did mention here before):

    wave one = $354.24 to $426.70
    wave two = $426.70 to $363.32 (which is a clear zigzag, not sure why Tony said is an impulse)
    wave three = $363.32 to $526.29
    wave four = $526.29 to ... which is usually a flat or a triangle, seldom zigzag.  This count is consistent with your intuition.  If this is true, the sideways movement could last one to three months.

    Mace, I like this count.  Agree on clear zigzag for wave two.  Let’s do this count instead.  The numbering is easier on my brain this way too. smile

    wave 1 = $354.24 to $426.70
    wave 2 = $426.70 to $363.32
    wave 3 = $363.32 to $526.29
    wave 4 = $526.29 to ...

    4.A   = $526.29 to $486.63
    4.B.a = $486.63 to $515.49
    4.B.b = $515.49 to x (down: higher low?)
    4.B.c = x to y (up: lower high)
    4.C   = y to z (down)


    I will have to look to see which EW books I have.  I have two of them, but both were Permanent Head Damage level to me. wink  I liked the pamphlet link that you posted earlier (EW for trading)...that’s more my level. smile

         
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    Posted: 23 February 2012 07:05 PM #48

    517.83 is roughly 76.4% retrace of the move from 526.29 to 486.63.

    Mace, 76.4% usually/ often(?) means full retest probable, right?

         
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    Posted: 23 February 2012 08:18 PM #49

    A: 526.29 to 486.63, length = 39.66
    B: 486.63 to…

    506.46 = 50.0% Fib retrace of A, length = 21.14
    511.10 = 61.8% Fib retrace of A, length = 24.47
    516.93 = 76.4% Fib retrace of A, length = 30.30 (currently 517.83)

    Darn, off by .90 wink

         
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    Posted: 24 February 2012 07:47 PM #50

    Mace, count invalidated above 526?  Maybe we are still in wave 3 from 363?  The 4th fractal retrace (within wave 3) was 526 to 486, and the 5th fractal (within wave 3) impulse is 486 to…?

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2012 03:11 PM #51

    lovemyipad - 24 February 2012 11:47 PM

    Mace, count invalidated above 526?  Maybe we are still in wave 3 from 363?  The 4th fractal retrace (within wave 3) was 526 to 486, and the 5th fractal (within wave 3) impulse is 486 to…?

    Wave B of an expanded flat can be 1.382 of length of wave A i.e. peak of wave B is higher than wave three.  Surprisingly, expanded aka irregular flat is more common than regular flat (those where wave B is between 0.764 to 1.000 of length of wave A).  Expanded flat can lead to truncated wave five.

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    Posted: 25 February 2012 03:16 PM #52

    YAY!  There you are—I missed you. smile  Thanks for the insight, as always! smile

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2012 05:57 PM #53

    You guys might as well be speaking…I dunno, Kryptonian or something.

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    Posted: 25 February 2012 06:42 PM #54

    Mav - 25 February 2012 09:57 PM

    You guys might as well be speaking…I dunno, Kryptonian or something.

    I’m sure I sound like a half-wit to Mace, but I’m learning! smile  And I like it! smile 

    The visual aspects (charts) are easier and more instinctive for me to comprehend versus the quantitative.  The way my brain is wired, I’ve never had an intuitive understanding of math…it’s always been like code-breaking to me.  I’ve always had to work at it with repetition, after which glimmers of insight *might* appear; but it’s never been “natural” for me.  So in school, given enough practice, I excelled in math, but the truth: more monkey brain, doing it by rote.

    That’s why I get all excited when I get even a brief, fleeting glimmer of understanding.  I’m trying to mesh the parts I get with the parts I don’t get, and I’m hoping with repetition, I’ll have more of those rare glimmers of insight.  Like, right now, I’m thrilled because I actually UNDERSTOOD Mace’s last reply!!!!!!!! :D

    [ Edited: 25 February 2012 06:52 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 25 February 2012 06:55 PM #55

    Love - Nice job learning this sh…. shtuff smile

    Sounds interesting but I have not the time to learn.  Maybe one day ...

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    Posted: 25 February 2012 07:00 PM #56

    lovemyipad - 25 February 2012 10:42 PM
    Mav - 25 February 2012 09:57 PM

    You guys might as well be speaking…I dunno, Kryptonian or something.

    I’m sure I sound like a half-wit to Mace, but I’m learning! smile  And I like it! smile 

    The visual aspects (charts) are easier and more instinctive for me to comprehend versus the quantitative.  The way my brain is wired, I’ve never had an intuitive understanding of math…it’s always been like code-breaking to me.  I’ve always had to work at it with repetition, after which glimmers of insight *might* appear; but it’s never been “natural” for me.  So in school, given enough practice, I excelled in math, but the truth: more monkey brain, doing it by rote.

    That’s why I get all excited when I get even a brief, fleeting glimmer of understanding.  I’m trying to mesh the parts I get with the parts I don’t get, and I’m hoping with repetition, I’ll have more of those rare glimmers of insight.  Like, right now, I’m thrilled because I actually UNDERSTOOD Mace’s last reply!!!!!!!! :D

    If you can distill it to a more pre-school level - say “the EW 3-a-2-4-z-5-g-x-98 wave pattern is suggesting a pullback/upwave to such-and-such a price range” - that’d be great. wink

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    Posted: 25 February 2012 07:43 PM #57

    incorrigible, thank you. wink

    Mav, it’s kinda like a scavenger hunt with a ripped up, incomplete treasure map where you aren’t entirely certain you’ve arranged the pieces of the map properly, but clues lead to more clues and more map pieces.  The way we’ve currently arranged the map pieces (which may or may not be correct): this upwave completes between 522.90 - 541.44.  IF/THEN statement reads like this: IF we go over 541.44, THEN we haven’t arranged the map pieces properly, so back to the drawing board.  (I was asking Mace if going above 526.29 meant we botched the map layout, and he said no, only above 541.44.)

    Mace, hope I got that ^^^ right. smile

    [ Edited: 25 February 2012 07:54 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 25 February 2012 10:55 PM #58

    I made this visual of the current layout of our treasure map (not drawn to scale—point labelled B shows max, with min already achieved):

    So, A was that drop from 526 to 486.

    Now, we’re in B, which started at 486.  If B completes anywhere between 522.90 and 541.44, we’ll keep using this map.  Otherwise, we’ll need to reconfigure our map.

    [ Edited: 25 February 2012 10:58 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 25 February 2012 11:15 PM #59

    lovemyipad - 26 February 2012 02:55 AM

    I made this visual of the current layout of our treasure map (not drawn to scale—point labelled B shows max, with min already achieved):

    So, A was that drop from 526 to 486.

    Now, we’re in B, which started at 486.  If B completes anywhere between 522.90 and 541.44, we’ll keep using this map.  Otherwise, we’ll need to reconfigure our map.

    Lovey, this is great. For some of us, (me :wink: ) this visualization, explanation and targets help understanding a great deal.

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    Posted: 27 February 2012 01:19 AM #60

    Yay!!  Thanks, Red—you made me smile!! smile