Elliott Wave Analysis

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    Posted: 28 February 2012 08:48 PM #61

    Below is Daneric’s count.  Ted Agubob thinks he is not a good Elloittician.  For one thing, he labels $526.29 to $486.63 as iii-iv which contradict what I know.  When decline is zigzag and so sharp, it is either a wave two or wave A of a flat.  Just like wave two can’t be a triangle, wave four can’t be a zigzag (can be a double zigzag or a combo that look like a zigzag).

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    Posted: 28 February 2012 09:03 PM #62

    Mace, YOU are the best AAPL Ellioittician—the other guys don’t know AAPL *and* EW like you do!

    We are fast approaching the level where we may need to relabel “A” as “ii,” which would put us in a “iii,” not B, right?

    [ Edited: 28 February 2012 09:37 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 28 February 2012 09:16 PM #63

    Since January 25, AAPL is up 18%.

    A total validation of Daneric!

    Other bits of hilarity: 

    Feb 13 “the market wants to sell off”

    Feb 08 “Apple for good measure.  The coming backlash against Apple will surprise many.  Steve Jobs is not around to steer Apple and corporations have a way of mucking things up when they are on top.  Its called greed, complacency, etc.” - See, this is why lack of objectivity gets in the way of analysis - monthly overbought indeed - at AAPL 476.68. 

    Jan 25 “Update 7:17PM: Updated Apple chart.  This is a very satisfying EW pattern. Mature in its waves, channeling and technicals.  Sentiment is so freaking high on Apple I cannot imagine it getting higher. Thats how a top is supposed to be where one cannot imagine any downside.

    Perhaps it has some Minute squiggles left in it, I don’t know. but I do know they are definitely the rage of the media at the moment surpassing everything before.”

    Sentiment representing a multiple of 15.8 (actually 12.4) is high?  I’d love to know what you think of AMZN.

    You’re entitled to your opinion, but if your opinion is bunk, your “analysis” - or is it your opinion mucking with your analysis? - will betray you. 

    I can’t wait until Daneric crows the first time AAPL inevitably does correct by a significant amount.

    Mace, consider dropping Daneric even as a contrarian read.  Here’s an example of where my “can’t you make the lines say whatever you want?” issues come from.

    [ Edited: 28 February 2012 09:29 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Posted: 28 February 2012 09:28 PM #64

    lovemyipad - 29 February 2012 01:03 AM

    We are fast approaching the level where we may need to relabel “A” as “ii,” which would put us in a “iii,” not B, right?

    Right.

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    Posted: 29 February 2012 08:30 PM #65

    Mace - 29 February 2012 01:28 AM
    lovemyipad - 29 February 2012 01:03 AM

    We are fast approaching the level where we may need to relabel “A” as “ii,” which would put us in a “iii,” not B, right?

    Right.

    iii?  Or end of B?

         
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    Posted: 29 February 2012 08:42 PM #66

    Mace - 12 February 2012 07:15 AM

    V.5.v.(1) = $419.55 to $454.45
    V.5.v.(2) = $454.45 to $443.14
    V.5.v.(3).(i) = $443.14 to $458.99, length of (i) = $15.85
    V.5.v.(3).(ii) = $458.99 to $453.98, 31.6% ret of (i)
    V.5.v.(3).(iii) = $453.98 to ...  ; This is a powerful rally, Elliotticians call it 3 of 3.
    (iii) = (i), = $469.83
    (iii) = 1.618 of (i), = $479.63
    (iii) = 2.618 of (i), = $495.48
    (iii) = 3.618 of (i), = $511.33
    ... (iii) can go up to 7 of (i), = $564.93

     

    3 of 3 version:

    (iii) = 5.618 of (i), = $543.03
    (iii) = 6.618 of (i), = $558.88

         
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    Posted: 06 March 2012 11:25 PM #67

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    Posted: 07 March 2012 02:53 AM #68

    Mace - why Daneric again?  Also, without context…it’s just a chart.  Though I can probably guess what he thinks the squiggles are telling him.

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    Posted: 07 March 2012 08:14 PM #69

    Mace, I can never decipher Daneric’s charts…and I’m a chart person! :(

    Would you pretty please update YOUR latest count?


    EDIT: Okay, I figured out his chart, but now I don’t trust his count—and I see where he’s going with his completion of a five wave.  You’re the only one who knows EW *and* AAPL whom I trust to give an INFORMED opinion.  What’s YOUR take?

    [ Edited: 07 March 2012 08:27 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 07 March 2012 09:01 PM #70

    Mace, no chart spam please.  Daneric has no credibility.  He’s not a market bear, he’s anti-Apple.  That destroys all his credibility, particularly when you consider that you can make certain trendlines (pick the worst ones) and waves (selectively “interpret” them as being the ones Before the Fall?) look like anything you want.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 07 March 2012 10:03 PM #71

    123.6% Fib projection from 2/16 low to 3/1 high = 563.53

    This is very close to 7 of (i), = $564.93

    Just saying… smile

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 01:24 PM #72

    wave one = $354.24 to $426.70, length = $72.46
    wave two = $426.70 to $363.32, ret = 87.5%
    wave three = $363.32 to ...
    $480, for three = 1.618 of one
    $508, for three = 2.000 of one
    $553, for three = 2.618 of one

    So may be one more burst to $553, then start wave four.  Wave four is likely to be completed at $486.63/lower bollinger band (daily, 20,2,0)/50-day EMA/SMA.  Ofc, could be in wave four already but it shouldn’t change the completion targets.

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 08:57 PM #73

    Thank you, Mace!! smile

         
  • Posted: 09 March 2012 12:33 PM #74

    Yikes - this from an Elliot Wave dude

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2012 01:17 PM #75

    roni - 09 March 2012 04:33 PM

    Yikes - this from an Elliot Wave dude

    EWI led by Robert Prechter is always perma-bearish.  I read S&P is in SuperCycle wave V but EWI/Robert insists that still in wave B of wave IV i.e. there would be a dreadful wave C that would bring S&P to below 666 (worse than hell?).  Having said that, there would be a Cycle wave II that could bring S&P to near 666 though, usually won’t decline that low.

    For AAPL, pretty clear that there would be a big correction once AAPL peaked.  Some1 suggested 20%-25% drop from the peak.  If $548.43 is the peak, 25% drop is $411.  But AAPL could peak at $550, $600 or much higher.

    Currently, real estate in Silicon Valley is hot because employment is good and inventory is at historical low.  Even though most SFHs in SV is worth over a million dollar, if you’re not bidding “no contingency, all cash”, please don’t bid, stand aside, you got no chance of winning.  Also, many out-of-town executives (VPs, SVPs) came to SV and paid top dollar for rental (I’m a landlord :wink: ).

    Edit:  Perma-bearish not bullish, typo.

    [ Edited: 09 March 2012 04:59 PM by Mace ]

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