Q3 iPad estimates

  • Posted: 24 May 2012 06:09 PM

    Just read this article on iPad distribution:

    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/apples-new-ipad-is-on-a-springboard.html/

    If 67M units sold by end of Q2 and est. 10M sold to this point in Q3, this article implies 17.4M (20% of 77M) new iPads sold in last 2 months.  This is a 3 month rate of 26.1M units.  Taking out an initial surge of 6M units, this would imply sales of 20M units of iPads for Q3 is probable.

    Please feel free to offer an assessment as to credibility of this estimate and the supporting article.

         
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    Posted: 24 May 2012 06:29 PM #1

    i would be shocked if Q3 iPad units were less than 20 million.

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    Posted: 24 May 2012 06:39 PM #2

    Two points:

    1)  iPad ship times in the US are now 1-3 business days.  I guess this happened fairly recently.

    2)  iPad is STILL not shipping in China.  As an important reference though, the iPad 2 + 3G wasn’t introduced in China even as of September last year:  http://www.macrumors.com/2011/09/06/apple-to-soon-offer-3g-ipad-2-in-china-retail-stores-expand-to-hong-kong/

    Oppenheimer is no fool and bakes conservatism into every bit of guidance.  I don’t see much problem with Apple producing 18-20M iPads even without China - after all, China didn’t have full access to iPad this time of year last year anyway, and at the moment, Apple is still selling every iPad it can make if ship times are any indication.  18M iPads sold is 100% growth on an already large base, which I think would be just fine (sure it’s not 183%, but iPad 1 had huge demand and very little supply out of the gate (and it didn’t fully launch until fiscal Q3 2010), which skewed the Q3 2010 compare). 

    Going over 20M may be China-dependent, though.

    [ Edited: 24 May 2012 06:43 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 24 May 2012 06:56 PM #3

    18-20 million seems like a good estimate to me. I don’t think China matters at all this quarter. We still have a backlog…and more countries to add I believe.

         
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    Posted: 24 May 2012 06:58 PM #4

    I dare the Street to try and make some kind of FUD hay out of 18-20M friggin’ iPads sold in a non-holiday quarter.  The subsidy argument is an obvious nonstarter, so…“Apple overestimates the ultimate size of the tablet market at its own peril”?  The classic “iPad is a luxury item in an austerity world”?

    SELL!

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  • Posted: 24 May 2012 07:00 PM #5

    Mav - 24 May 2012 09:58 PM

    I dare the Street to try and make some kind of FUD hay out of 18-20M friggin’ iPads sold in a non-holiday quarter.  The subsidy argument is an obvious nonstarter, so…“Apple overestimates the ultimate size of the tablet market at its own peril”?  The classic “iPad is a luxury item in an austerity world”?

    SELL!

    Based on what I’ve seen, WS is estimating 14-15M. 18M is blowout. 20M is massive blowout.

         
  • Posted: 24 May 2012 07:15 PM #6

    Yup.  Maybe I’m conservative, but I hope to see more evidence before completely buying into 20M. 

    I am super-long AAPL.

         
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    Posted: 24 May 2012 08:11 PM #7

    adamthompson32 - 24 May 2012 10:00 PM
    Mav - 24 May 2012 09:58 PM

    I dare the Street to try and make some kind of FUD hay out of 18-20M friggin’ iPads sold in a non-holiday quarter.  The subsidy argument is an obvious nonstarter, so…“Apple overestimates the ultimate size of the tablet market at its own peril”?  The classic “iPad is a luxury item in an austerity world”?

    SELL!

    Based on what I’ve seen, WS is estimating 14-15M. 18M is blowout. 20M is massive blowout.

    Based on the comments in the last conference call, rollout dates this quarter, backlogs and a big dose of Kentucky Windage….I am at 19.8 million right now. And there is room for growth.

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    Posted: 24 May 2012 08:18 PM #8

    Apple is purely limited by iPad 3 production constraints for Q3, it is selling all it can make, and will still be trying to have 4-6 weeks inventory in channel fill by the end of the quarter, which it will likely not meet.

    I think with or without China, apple would ship the same amount of iPad 3.

    Combine with the extra iPad 2 demand from Schools & enterprise, and I can’t seriously consider anything under 20 million unless there has been some sort of bottleneck on the production end.

    as an anecdote, I know several people who ordered the ipad 3 from apples online store during the wave of 2nd country launches in Q2, and none of them had their units shipped until Q3 - my point being is there may be a considerable amount of iPad 3 launch orders that ended up being bumped into this quarter.

    [ Edited: 24 May 2012 08:22 PM by Burgess ]

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    Posted: 24 May 2012 08:22 PM #9

    orneryjeff - 24 May 2012 09:09 PM

    Just read this article on iPad distribution:

    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/apples-new-ipad-is-on-a-springboard.html/

    If 67M units sold by end of Q2 and est. 10M sold to this point in Q3, this article implies 17.4M (20% of 77M) new iPads sold in last 2 months.  This is a 3 month rate of 26.1M units.  Taking out an initial surge of 6M units, this would imply sales of 20M units of iPads for Q3 is probable.

    Please feel free to offer an assessment as to credibility of this estimate and the supporting article.

    Not sure how you arrive at your numbers, but the metrics are US only and the article equates the first week sales in US as 14% and 3 M.  How does your 67M number relate.  Are you assuming a constant percentage worldwide.  The US share of iPad new was up 50% since the launch weekend in the US but Apple is still selling both iPad 2 and iPad New at some ratio.

    the Chitika Tracker shows just under 14%

    [ Edited: 24 May 2012 08:27 PM by pats ]      
  • Posted: 24 May 2012 10:05 PM #10

    I tallied all iPad sales (67M) from Posts at Eventide database (add 11.8M for last quarter):

    http://www.postsateventide.com/p/apple-unit-sales.html

    I assumed worldwide rather than US based as the wallstreetcheatsheet article states.  This would make my estimate incorrect. You could assume worldwide sales are the same (or some %) of US and go from there.  It becomes a guess at that point.

    I also couldn’t interpret the “first week sales in US as 14% and 3 M.”

         
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    Posted: 24 May 2012 11:44 PM #11

    orneryjeff - 25 May 2012 01:05 AM

    I tallied all iPad sales (67M) from Posts at Eventide database (add 11.8M for last quarter):

    http://www.postsateventide.com/p/apple-unit-sales.html

    I assumed worldwide rather than US based as the wallstreetcheatsheet article states.  This would make my estimate incorrect. You could assume worldwide sales are the same (or some %) of US and go from there.  It becomes a guess at that point.

    I also couldn’t interpret the “first week sales in US as 14% and 3 M.”

    I guess my point is if I have any, is the web statistics have a lot of noise.  I use them as a trend indicator, but try not to project sales based on a US trend.  On the production side, I’m around 18M per qtr base on the numbers I’ve seen from the three factories I’m aware of.  I’m not linking but I have confidence that they are in the ball park.  the first iPad factory did 2.5M per month.  the Chengdu factory was producing 40M per year and expanding to 100M in 2013. the Brazil plant is producing at pilot production which I estimate at 200K per qtr. I think 20M is doable but that assumes a flawless ramp, and the rumor mill was complaining about screen production and it doesn’t fix itself overnite.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2012 01:22 AM #12

    We’re on the same page.  Apple will sell what they can produce.  I think 20M is a stretch for this qtr, but my assumptions from the article said 20M. 

    I have seen 65M estimated for FY12.  That means they need 38M over next 2 qtrs.  That suggests that they produce at least 20M in one of the qtrs.  I don’t know what is planned for 1Q FY13, but I think they will be shooting for 25M.

    Huge numbers estimated for iPhones coming up.  Apple is a humongous logistical operation.  Kind of a miracle they keep pulling this off.

    Thanks for everyone’s input.

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2012 02:52 AM #13

    20 M iPads would fit in with my projectons derived from Peter Oppenheimer’s sandbagging.

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2012 05:17 AM #14

    I would guess over 20 million. I have 24 million in mind right now.

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    Posted: 25 May 2012 05:35 AM #15

    That would be a stunning number.

    But are you thinking in the $43B revenue range for fiscal Q3, or higher?  Even that revenue number - which would demolish the WS consensus and would be extremely impressive by any measure - could imply an iPhone number in the 30M range.  I’m not thinking iPhone will have a middling 50% YOY growth rate in its second full quarter.

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