Weekend Updates

  • Posted: 26 May 2012 03:53 PM #31

    This post will wander.  Apologies to those of you who are focused.

    I’ll be drinking coffee.  Holiday weekends just mean I drink more of it.

    CNBC: Mark Haines and Art Cashin were/are the exceptions.  CNBC is worthless to the knowledgeable investor/trader and pernicious to the naive.  Always has been.

    Tech Sector: An ill-defined glob.  Apple does not belong in it.  If one must put this unique company in a sector, it should be Consumer Discretionary.

    Gene Munster: He is near the best of a bad lot.  I like him and respect his work ethic.  He reminds me of a poor man’s David Einhorn.

    Facebook:  I swore after the crash of ‘08 that I would never again invest in a company with a CEO whose character I distrusted.  My small “safe” investments back then (to give a small bit of balance to my huge position in AAPL) in AIG and GE taught me this lesson. For the same reasons, I would not buy GOOG, GM, or CHK.

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 04:21 PM #32

    rob_london - 26 May 2012 02:00 PM

    Gene Munster on Bloomberg TV yesterday, talking about the Apple TV, Ive and the iPhone 5.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93462039-apple-to-release-tv-in-2013-1st-half-munster-says.html

    The guy interviewing him is named Jon Erlichman.  He has a very sharp resemblance to one of Nixon’s Watergate cronies by the same name, except I believe his first name was spelled John.  Wonder if he is the son.

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 04:23 PM #33

    Mercel - 26 May 2012 03:55 PM

    I like Gene.  I don’t understand why some are down on this Apple bull full of snort.  His price targets are better than his EPS estimates, probably because there’s more accountability with EPS #s vs. one year price targets. 

    I agree his EPS #s are LOW.  Consistently.  It’s part of the Wall Street game of UPOD w/client expectations.  Clients are far more forgiving w/estimates out a year.  Gene’s not alone here.

    Who would you have on CNBC?  Zabitsky? (it’s a rhetorical question; I’m not trying to provoke).

    Plus, Gene’s RIGHT on the Apple HDTV coming.  :wink:

    Yes, I don’t understand it either, and calling a well-known Apple bull - with a $1000 price target - silly names comes off childish and doesn’t reflect on the board well, IMO.

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  • Posted: 26 May 2012 04:24 PM #34

    JDSoCal - 26 May 2012 07:23 PM
    Mercel - 26 May 2012 03:55 PM

    I like Gene.  I don’t understand why some are down on this Apple bull full of snort.  His price targets are better than his EPS estimates, probably because there’s more accountability with EPS #s vs. one year price targets. 

    I agree his EPS #s are LOW.  Consistently.  It’s part of the Wall Street game of UPOD w/client expectations.  Clients are far more forgiving w/estimates out a year.  Gene’s not alone here.

    Who would you have on CNBC?  Zabitsky? (it’s a rhetorical question; I’m not trying to provoke).

    Plus, Gene’s RIGHT on the Apple HDTV coming.  :wink:

    Yes, I don’t understand it either, and calling a well-known Apple bull - with a $1000 price target - silly names comes off childish and doesn’t reflect on the board well, IMO.

    +1

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 05:23 PM #35

    I like Gene more than I don’t.

    Some of us still remember his astoundingly wrong 45M iPhones in 2009 call though.  Remember, he’s the one who gets paid to analyze AAPL.

    He mostly gets Apple.  I agree that most criticism should be saved for the idiots like Zabitsky.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2012 06:26 PM #36

    I haven’t seen much yet re:  predictions for Q3 earnings, but did a little googling to see what I could find and came across the article posted on SeekingAlpha from earlier this week.

    The reasoning and estimates seem pretty sound IMO.  Wonder what people here think.  If these predictions come true - would certainly make for a strong Q3 - going into even stronger quarters ahead.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/607961-apple-initial-projections-for-q3

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 07:34 PM #37

    amsk - 26 May 2012 09:26 PM

    I haven’t seen much yet re:  predictions for Q3 earnings, but did a little googling to see what I could find and came across the article posted on SeekingAlpha from earlier this week.

    The reasoning and estimates seem pretty sound IMO.  Wonder what people here think.  If these predictions come true - would certainly make for a strong Q3 - going into even stronger quarters ahead.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/607961-apple-initial-projections-for-q3

    The 15 million iPad prediction is far too low.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 08:21 PM #38

    amsk - 26 May 2012 09:26 PM

    I haven’t seen much yet re:  predictions for Q3 earnings, but did a little googling to see what I could find and came across the article posted on SeekingAlpha from earlier this week.

    The reasoning and estimates seem pretty sound IMO.  Wonder what people here think.  If these predictions come true - would certainly make for a strong Q3 - going into even stronger quarters ahead.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/607961-apple-initial-projections-for-q3

    I’m with Burgess: iPad #‘s too low. That said, I think the iPhone #‘s are a bit high. His comment regarding mac sales is spent on. Will see lackluster Mac sale UNLESS new MBP’s are delivered in volume for this quarter. Only have a few more weeks until the window closes on that play.

    His EPS is pretty close to my current estimate of $11.85 with NO new MBP deliveries. I’m usually low so that bodes well for an upside surprise in the low 12 range.

      cheers
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 08:27 PM #39

    Hardly.  A June 11 release of new Macs is more than enough time to satisfy pent-up demand.  They won’t need nearly the kinds of volumes they need for iPhones and iMacs.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2012 09:27 PM #40

    Mercel - 26 May 2012 03:55 PM

    I like Gene.  I don’t understand why some are down on this Apple bull full of snort.  His price targets are better than his EPS estimates, probably because there’s more accountability with EPS #s vs. one year price targets. 

    I agree his EPS #s are LOW.  Consistently.  It’s part of the Wall Street game of UPOD w/client expectations.  Clients are far more forgiving w/estimates out a year.  Gene’s not alone here.

    Who would you have on CNBC?  Zabitsky? (it’s a rhetorical question; I’m not trying to provoke).

    Plus, Gene’s RIGHT on the Apple HDTV coming.  :wink:

    Gene is fine with me too, he may be lower than the independents but he still gets closer than 90% of all other analysts do and consistently. I thought that link was good, lots of good info there.

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 11:29 PM #41

    Mav - 26 May 2012 11:27 PM

    Hardly.  A June 11 release of new Macs is more than enough time to satisfy pent-up demand.  They won’t need nearly the kinds of volumes they need for iPhones and iMacs.

    I wasn’t aware that June 11’th was a confirmed delivery date.

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2012 11:35 PM #42

    It’s not, obviously rolleyes.  But I think it’s a very safe bet that the key new Macs to be refreshed will ship and/or be in stores almost immediately. 

    This isn’t an iOS launch.  Apple should have a “trivial” time ramping up the new Macs.

    The one possible holdup:  If Apple decides to preload all new Macs with Mountain Lion.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2012 12:14 AM #43

    Mav - 27 May 2012 02:35 AM

    It’s not, obviously rolleyes.  But I think it’s a very safe bet that the key new Macs to be refreshed will ship and/or be in stores almost immediately. 

    This isn’t an iOS launch.  Apple should have a “trivial” time ramping up the new Macs.

    The one possible holdup:  If Apple decides to preload all new Macs with Mountain Lion.

    Yes, I’m very concerned about this issue. i.e. Apple delaying MBP’s due to the “retina” display driver in ML. I’ve seen a couple online comments/blogs indicating such. It’s just a WAG right now so that’s why I asked about the June 11 date.

      cheers
        JohnG

    [ Edited: 27 May 2012 12:16 AM by johnG ]      
  • Posted: 27 May 2012 12:37 AM #44

    v10king - 27 May 2012 12:27 AM
    Mercel - 26 May 2012 03:55 PM

    I like Gene.  I don’t understand why some are down on this Apple bull full of snort.  His price targets are better than his EPS estimates, probably because there’s more accountability with EPS #s vs. one year price targets. 

    I agree his EPS #s are LOW.  Consistently.  It’s part of the Wall Street game of UPOD w/client expectations.  Clients are far more forgiving w/estimates out a year.  Gene’s not alone here.

    Who would you have on CNBC?  Zabitsky? (it’s a rhetorical question; I’m not trying to provoke).

    Plus, Gene’s RIGHT on the Apple HDTV coming.  :wink:

    Gene is fine with me too, he may be lower than the independents but he still gets closer than 90% of all other analysts do and consistently. I thought that link was good, lots of good info there.

    No, he doesn’t. He’s pretty consistently among the worst.

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2012 12:41 AM #45

    Red Shirted Ensign - 26 May 2012 06:39 PM

    I like Mr. Munster too.  His awareness of Apple’s strengths and willingness to pound the table for the stock is o.k. By me.  Sure he gets stuff wrong, but not as wrong as most of the lemmings.

    Actually, he does. Check PED’s smackdown rankings. He is terrible. Super low estimates with a price target that requires huge P/E expansion. His estimates SUCK.