Apple’s Revenue Growth: A Dual-Track Bullet Train

  • Posted: 16 June 2012 06:00 PM

    Apple’s Revenue Growth: A Dual-Track Bullet Train

    Snippet: If Apple were a bullet train, it would be a bullet train powered by two parallel tracks. The first track is exceptional product design and the consequential product popularity. The second track is expansion of product sales into new and emerging markets.

    [ Edited: 16 June 2012 08:32 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 16 June 2012 06:01 PM #1

    Hello there, Robert!

    How’s everything over at Braeburn?

    One small part of the article I zeroed in on:

    The first six months of the current fiscal year represent the high point in the annual cycle for iPhone unit sales growth and includes only the first couple of weeks of sales for the new iPad.

    That’s probably going to be the case going forward, at least for iPhone 4S-type iPhones going forward.  Unit sales will peak as soon as the first quarter of availability.  The upcoming iPhone, which will probably be a significant redesign, we’ll have to wait until fiscal Q1 2013 for clues.

    [ Edited: 16 June 2012 06:06 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 06:02 PM #2

    This article updates the revenue growth trends by region for the first six months of the current fiscal year.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 06:11 PM #3

    Mav - 16 June 2012 09:01 PM

    Hello there, Robert!

    How’s everything over at Braeburn?

    Busy!  grin

    However, I will be lifting the new member moratorium this afternoon. Screening new members through the AAPL Independent Analysts group on Linkedin has proven to be an effective approach to manage membership growth.

    We are not actively soliciting new members from the AFB. This is a worthwhile and publicly available forum for AAPL traders. For those interested in a private community focused primarily on Apple analysis, please contact me inside Linkedin.

    I will be posting the Braeburn Group’s 12-month AAPL price target index this weekend. The index will be published on the Braeburn Group page at Posts At Eventide and on the Braeburn Group home page.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 06:14 PM #4

    Mav - 16 June 2012 09:01 PM

    Hello there, Robert!

    How’s everything over at Braeburn?

    One small part of the article I zeroed in on:

    The first six months of the current fiscal year represent the high point in the annual cycle for iPhone unit sales growth and includes only the first couple of weeks of sales for the new iPad.

    That’s probably going to be the case going forward, at least for iPhone 4S-type iPhones going forward.  Unit sales will peak as soon as the first quarter of availability.  The upcoming iPhone, which will probably be a significant redesign, we’ll have to wait until fiscal Q1 2013 for clues.

    Since I’m focusing on a six-month follow-up to my post titled Where Apple Makes It’s Money, mentioning the seasonality influences on the half-year period is important.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 06:15 PM #5

    Mav - 16 June 2012 09:01 PM

    That’s probably going to be the case going forward, at least for iPhone 4S-type iPhones going forward.  Unit sales will peak as soon as the first quarter of availability.  The upcoming iPhone, which will probably be a significant redesign, we’ll have to wait until fiscal Q1 2013 for clues.

    Unit sales *growth rate* may peak early and drop, but given the high double-digit growth rate y/y every quarter, units will not necessarily decline q/q. In fact, I think it will be very interesting to see whether actual units decline sequentially this quarter or next…

    Last year, the iPhone intro got pushed out a quarter, leaving the high-end model unchanged for about 15 months. This next time it will be just about a year between intros, and I think it will be very telling whether we get the same kind of sales blip as last time or not—was last year more because it was end-of-life and the seasonal slow period, or was it more because of the delay of the next model beyond the usual timeline.

         
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    Posted: 16 June 2012 06:21 PM #6

    It’s very likely that iPhone unit sales will drop sequentially this quarter.  There is “nothing” other than carrier expansion to sustain the popularity of a smartphone that met supply/demand balance in fiscal Q1 or Q2.  iPhone will get a little help from the expiring contract effect that had lots of 3GS owners becoming eligible for an upgrade right around now.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 07:31 PM #7

    Mav - 16 June 2012 09:21 PM

    It’s very likely that iPhone unit sales will drop sequentially this quarter.  There is “nothing” other than carrier expansion to sustain the popularity of a smartphone that met supply/demand balance in fiscal Q1 or Q2.  iPhone will get a little help from the expiring contract effect that had lots of 3GS owners becoming eligible for an upgrade right around now.

    I’ve yet to see an estimates that anticipates sequential iPhone unit sales growth. Apple added 2.6 million units to the channel last quarter and channel supply will be worked down prior to the release of the next flagship handset.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 07:33 PM #8

    Mav - 16 June 2012 09:21 PM

    It’s very likely that iPhone unit sales will drop sequentially this quarter.  There is “nothing” other than carrier expansion to sustain the popularity of a smartphone that met supply/demand balance in fiscal Q1 or Q2.  iPhone will get a little help from the expiring contract effect that had lots of 3GS owners becoming eligible for an upgrade right around now.

    I expect intra-carrier market share gains for iPhone to continue to drive iPhone demand as well. Sequential decline is definitely happening but iPhone, even without any new carriers, will continue to grow substantially. Market share gains vs. other smart phones and smart phone growth vs. dumb phones will provide huge growth going forward. Then we add new carriers and the growth gets us back to doubling iPhone sales this year and next.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 07:35 PM #9

    greedyn00b - 16 June 2012 09:15 PM
    Mav - 16 June 2012 09:01 PM

    That’s probably going to be the case going forward, at least for iPhone 4S-type iPhones going forward.  Unit sales will peak as soon as the first quarter of availability.  The upcoming iPhone, which will probably be a significant redesign, we’ll have to wait until fiscal Q1 2013 for clues.

    Unit sales *growth rate* may peak early and drop, but given the high double-digit growth rate y/y every quarter, units will not necessarily decline q/q. In fact, I think it will be very interesting to see whether actual units decline sequentially this quarter or next…

    Last year, the iPhone intro got pushed out a quarter, leaving the high-end model unchanged for about 15 months. This next time it will be just about a year between intros, and I think it will be very telling whether we get the same kind of sales blip as last time or not—was last year more because it was end-of-life and the seasonal slow period, or was it more because of the delay of the next model beyond the usual timeline.

    It was the first release of a new iPhone model on the three major domestic networks and the early Droid adopters had expiring contracts.

    While the initial release date is important, the schedule of international roll outs following initial release is also important. The rate of smartphone adoption has slowed in the States but the next iPhone handset may have a new form. A new form and advancements in the technologies used will spark consumer demand

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2012 08:32 PM #10

    Thank you all for taking the time to read my latest article. Now back to the hard work of posting the Braeburn Group 12-month AAPL price target index.