The Omnibus AFB Surface Topic

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    Posted: 24 June 2012 06:44 PM #256

    FalKirk - 24 June 2012 09:22 PM

    In 2007 there were approximately 400 million computing devices sold and 95% or more of them ran Windows.

    In 2011 there were 650 million smart phones, 50 million tablets and 400 million traditional PCs sold. About 40% of those devices were running Windows. See the pattern?

    I think the definition of “computing devices” is rapidly changing. Microsoft knows this, which is why you often hear their fans perpetuate the “iPad is for content consumption” meme.

    My only disagreement with the 2011 statistics quoted above is that many of those 650 million “smartphones” were probably pretty dumb. But that doesn’t make the clear trend any less obvious.

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 06:54 PM #257

    Zune and Kin still count.  They still count, same as the TouchPad.  We’re not mixing with commercial viability with shipping product.

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  • Posted: 24 June 2012 06:57 PM #258

    Lstream - 24 June 2012 07:53 PM

    My main point above is that the iPad and PC’s are distinct markets, and therefore the iPad cannot be held responsible for declining PC sales.  At least not without some more convincing evidence, which we do not appear to have.  I think what Tim and Tony are saying is consistent with this point of view.

    Here, in my opinion, is the problem with your thinking. You’re making the same mistake that all the anti-tablet people were making when the iPad first arrived. You’re thinking that tablet and desktops (and notebooks) are distinct and are different and therefore you’re assuming that desktop markets will be safe from tablet incursion.

    Just because the tablet cannot replace the desktop does not mean that the tablet cannot replace the job that the desktop was doing. Examples abound:

    - There are probably 500 million small retail stores that use ancient PCs to handle their accounting, store inventory or act as a cash register. Cheaper, simpler, smaller, more mobile, more versatile tablets can replace them with aplomb.

    - Tens of millions of people need to do their computing while standing up. Realtors, inventory managers, maitre d’s, order takers and sales people of every kind come readily to mind. Many of them used to shoe horn notebooks into their tasks. No more.

    - The President of the United States, the Queen of England, the entire British Parliament now use iPads for tasks that were formally done with desktops and notebooks.

    Stop thinking in terms of computers and start thinking in terms of jobs to be done.

    - A backhoe is a lot more powerful than a shovel but a shovel is more useful in most instances.

    - An oven is more powerful and more versatile than a Microwave but the Microwave does the job faster and more efficiently 95% of the time.

    - A train can move a mountain of stuff quickly and efficiently but a fleet of trucks can take that stuff right to your door.

    The desktop computer is moving to niche status because, like the backhoe, oven and train, we only need them for the really big jobs. Right now 90% of our computers (not counting phones) are notebooks or desktops but 80% of our jobs can be done and done better on a tablet. Tomorrow, that balance is going to redress itself. In the very near future, most people will be buying tablets because tablets will be the tool best suited for the job it is being hired to do.

    I know that you have a very different point of view on this than I do and if you can see logical holes in my argument, I encourage you to (gently) show me the error of my ways. I feel pretty confident about this and I’dl like to know if there’s something I’m missing or if I’m somewhere made a misstep. I look forward to your (and to all of your) response(s).

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 07:04 PM #259

    Growth is one metric - installed base is another.

    As far as the viability of the PC itself longer-term, installed base takes on greater importance.  Don’t forget that “want it all” group that Tim described, I believe at the D10 interview.  They own tablets and PCs - but one will get “replaced” more often (sure helps there’s such a great market for “pre-owned” iOS devices, huh) - while another may very likely have its replacement cycle extended, partly because of the tablet expense, partly because today’s systems will be more than fine for light-duty computing 5+ years from now.  We’re basically at a point where many are buying new traditional computers just because their old ones broke.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 June 2012 09:42 PM #260

    Mav - 24 June 2012 09:54 PM

    Zune and Kin still count.  They still count, same as the TouchPad.  We’re not mixing with commercial viability with shipping product.

    Check out this video running on YouTube that claims the Touch Cover demo was faked. 

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdokeR3PRX0

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 09:54 PM #261

    Via Thurrott. It’s Windows 8 beta on an Intel-based slate tablet, but is the Surface Pro version really going to be very different? I think Surface Pro will end up competing with Tablet PCs rather than Ultrabooks.

    I’ve been using a prototype Samsung 700T slate PC, also on loan from Microsoft, exclusively for Windows 8 testing and for writing my next book, Windows 8 Secrets. This machine features an 11.6-inch (1366 x 768) widescreen, multi-touch display, a 1.6 GHz Intel Core i5 i5-2467M processor, 4 GB of RAM, and 64 GB of SSD storage plus a 32 GB micro-SD card I added. Battery life is not exceptional (it’s in the 3 hour range), and while it works well, it can be bit loud thanks to a noisy fan. Not recommended.

    http://www.winsupersite.com/article/commentary/june-2012-143518

    I’ve lost some respect for Paul after this:

    Lots of changes in a short time, thanks in part to an overdue decision to remove Apple products from my home.

         
  • Posted: 24 June 2012 10:03 PM #262

    Drew Bear - 25 June 2012 12:54 AM

    I’ve lost some respect for Paul after this:

    Lots of changes in a short time, thanks in part to an overdue decision to remove Apple products from my home.

    You seem to like Thurrott a lot more than I do. I can’t peg the man. For a smart guy he writes some of the dumbest link bait imaginable. He seems much better on Windows Weekly but he still says things that set my teeth on edge. A smart man who can be both insightful and yet so purposefully disingenuous all the in the span of a single paragraph. Can’t figure him out.

    I like May Jo Foley. Has great sources. Haven’t read or heard enough of her stuff to really know much about her. Clearly a Microsoft advocate but she seems like a straight shooter.

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2012 10:05 PM #263

    [deleted]

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    Posted: 24 June 2012 10:09 PM #264

    Mr. YouTuber has a point.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 12:15 AM #265

    Mav - 25 June 2012 01:09 AM

    Mr. YouTuber has a point.

    The fact that it didn’t crash during the demo almost proves it was faked and taped.  LOL

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 12:20 AM #266

    FalKirk - 25 June 2012 01:03 AM

    A smart man who can be both insightful and yet so purposefully disingenuous all the in the span of a single paragraph.

    I just figured the link bait rhetoric is part of his shtick. He definitely plays to his audience by bashing Apple unfairly, but he also can look at Microsoft with a critical eye. With most proponents of a single system, he has blind spots. I scream aloud at many of the pundits that I force myself to read. Life would be more pleasant if I stuck to reading folks I agree with. For some reason I find him one of the least annoying of the Microsoft pundits. Mary Jo is even better, but she focuses on the Enterprise.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 12:36 AM #267

    Acer: Microsoft’s Surface Will Fail

    Keep in mind Acer is Microsoft’s 4th largest Windows PC OEM globally and 4th largest Windows PC OEM in the United States.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 12:37 AM #268

    Mercel - 25 June 2012 12:42 AM

    Check out this video running on YouTube that claims the Touch Cover demo was faked.

    Why is pressure sensitivity important on a keyboard? It makes sense for graphics tablets and musical keyboards, but what variable can you control by pressure on a typing keyboard? Tap harder to make a louder click? Click. Click.

    They’re making a big deal about these keyboard covers. They better live up to the hype. My guess is people who spend a lot of time on keyboards will not be happy with anything less than a full-size keyboard with full-travel keys.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 12:38 AM #269

    DawnTreader - 20 June 2012 06:44 PM

    This morning PED took apart Gartner’s forecasts of Microsoft gaining market share in the mobile market at Apple’s expense.

    Please read today’s Apple 2.0 column and the associated comments.

    Rarely do I go on a rant. But the Surface isn’t just awful. It’s breathtakingly awful.In my view this week’s announcement about the Surface represents Microsoft’s “Appomattox moment.” It’s a total capitulation the company can not effectively compete with Apple in the mobile product environment.

    The Surface isn’t a solution. It’s a big fat question market instead. I see it as ill-designed and nothing more than a Windows OS crammed into a form intended to mimic the iPad’s enclosure.

    Not only will it not create market share, Microsoft may have kicked its own PC OEMs in the shins. It’s the clearest indication yet the Windows PC era is over.

    What’s described as the device’s intended functionality is similar to what Microsoft described about a Windows-based tablet two and three years ago. There’s nothing here but an ill-fated effort to extend what remains of the Microsoft monopoly in desktop operating systems into the mobile environment. This hasn’t work in smartphones and it won’t work in the tablet market.

    I’m quite surprised Microsoft is intending to bring this product to market in its current form.

    The original topic post for context.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 01:32 AM #270

    Drew Bear - 25 June 2012 03:37 AM

    They’re making a big deal about these keyboard covers. They better live up to the hype. My guess is people who spend a lot of time on keyboards will not be happy with anything less than a full-size keyboard with full-travel keys.

    Microsoft has no confidence in the tablet. Think about their presentation. First, they show us a tablet. Then they try to turn the tablet into a notebook.

    - They make a big fuss about the integrated keyboards. Keyboards are great, but if they were essential, then people wouldn’t be buying tablets in the first place.

    - They have a kickstand. They think its important enough that they build it in and spend tremendous amounts of resources on it in order to make it feel and sound just right. A kickstand implies that that the device is sitting on a table. Tablets are occasionally propped on tables. But their primary purpose is to be held. The kickstand is trying to make the tablet into a desktop device.

    - The camera on the back of the Surface angles up an 22 degrees. This means that it works great when the Surface is on a table leaning back on its kickstand. But its pretty awkward to use when you’re holding the tablet in your hands. Again, Microsoft wants this to be sitting on a table, not held in your hands.

    Think what we’re talking about here. Microsoft has taken its focus off the tablet and they’ve put all their focus on making the tablet into a hybrid by adding a kickstand, a pen and a keyboard. These are peripherals, not the main product. They’re the garnish, not the meal. It would be like Apple creating a new iPod and then spending all of their presentation time on the the smart cover. Take a look at how Microsoft displays the Surface. You will never see it without it leaning back on its kickstand with the keyboard in front. They want you to think of it as a notebook resting on a flat surface first and foremost.

    Microsoft is not selling a tablet. They’re selling a light, portable notebook that you can use as a tablet, in a pinch.