Weekend Update - Archive

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    Posted: 22 June 2012 07:18 PM

    The bar is open!

    [ Edited: 26 June 2012 12:20 AM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 22 June 2012 07:45 PM #1

    Low implied volatility…low alpha per week…it’s a grind.

    Iced tea no lemon, bartender.  Free refills I hope, not much going on in the portfolio lately.

    [ Edited: 23 June 2012 12:15 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 22 June 2012 09:00 PM #2

    Still waiting patiently smile

         
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    Posted: 22 June 2012 09:44 PM #3

    I’m thrilled (and a bit surprised) that aapl is holding above a PE of 14 at this stage of the earnings “run up”.

    Mostly holding pat right now. Just watching the dealer and the other players at the table for any ‘funny business’.

      cheers to all
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 22 June 2012 11:34 PM #4

    http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/22/3111607/apple-v-motorola-judge-posner-dismisses-entire-patent-case

    Not great, but not awful.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 22 June 2012 11:50 PM #5

    Not likely to move AAPL next week.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 22 June 2012 11:54 PM #6

    HTC halts all phone sales in Brazil - pulling out of country altogether!

    Big win for apples locally brazil produced iPhone?

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/06/22/htc_halts_all_phone_sales_in_brazil.html

    [ Edited: 22 June 2012 11:57 PM by Burgess ]

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 03:15 AM #7

    Burgess - 23 June 2012 02:34 AM

    http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/22/3111607/apple-v-motorola-judge-posner-dismisses-entire-patent-case

    Not great, but not awful.

    I read this ruling. Not something I’ve done before. What I take from it is that Apple’s legal counsel screwed up some expert testimony or the expert did, so it was disallowed, so Apple couldn’t use it to prove the amount of damages even though Motorola did infringe Apple’s patents. No proof of damages, case dismissed. No chance for Apple to fix this screw up. Sucks.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 04:36 AM #8

    Some reading from T3Live:

    http://www.t3live.com/articles/market-analysis/3177-economic-events-to-watch-despite-summers-arrival.html

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 11:09 AM #9

    Burgess - 23 June 2012 02:34 AM

    http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/22/3111607/apple-v-motorola-judge-posner-dismisses-entire-patent-case

    Not great, but not awful.

    PED’s article on the dismissal.
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/23/why-judge-posner-pulled-the-plug-on-apple-v-motorola/?source=yahoo_quote

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    Striving to exceed the needs of the future.

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 04:18 PM #10

    From Anthony Caldaro’s blog:

    “If one examines the liquidity programs and their results they will discover a pattern. We are fairly certain the FED has as well. When the FED expanded QE1 to $1.4 tln the market closed that day at SPX 720. Before the program ended the SPX hit 1220, for a gain of 69%. When the FED introduced QE2 at $600 bln the market closed that day at SPX 1065. Before that program ended the SPX hit 1371, for a gain of 29%. Then when the FED introduced Op Twist for $400 bln the market closed that day at SPX 1167. The market was initially disappointed as it made a lower low. However before the program was recently expanded the SPX had hit 1422, for a gain of 22%. When the FED expanded the program this week by an odd $267 bln we figured they too had discovered the pattern.

    For every $20 bln the FED purchases in long term debt the stock market rises 1%. QE1 was $1.4 tln: expected rise 70%, actual rise 69%. QE2 was $600 bln: expected rise 30%, actual rise 29%. Op Twist was $400 bln: expected rise 20%, actual rise 22%. Op Twist expanded to $667 bln: expected overall rise 33%, actual rise yet to be determined. In summary, when the FED introduced Op Twist for $400 bln they were expecting the market to rise 20%. Despite the decline after the introduction at SPX 1167, the market rose 22% to SPX 1422. Now, with the expansion of the program to $667 bln they are likely expecting an overall rise of 33.3% from the time the program was first introduced. Or, a rise of 13.3 % from the time it was extended. A 33.3% rise from SPX 1167 equals SPX 1556. A 13.3% rise from SPX 1356 equals SPX 1536. The all time high for the SPX is 1576. Mission almost accomplished!”

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 04:33 PM #11

    johnG - 23 June 2012 12:44 AM

    I’m thrilled (and a bit surprised) that aapl is holding above a PE of 14 at this stage of the earnings “run up”.

    Mostly holding pat right now. Just watching the dealer and the other players at the table for any ‘funny business’.

      cheers to all
        JohnG

    John, please elaborate… Are you thinking at this stage in the cycle Apple should be trading lower than 14 PE?

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 23 June 2012 04:51 PM #12

    We’ll need to keep an eye on this

    David Einhorn, a hedge fund manager from New York, has been confirmed as one of the entrants in next month’s $1 million buy-in Big One for One Drop at the World Series of Poker.

    Einhorn is the founder and President of Greenlight Capital, a $7.8 billion hedge fund in Manhattan. Bloomberg News reported Friday that Einhorn is one of at least 42 confirmed participants in the One Drop event, and he plans to donate all of his winnings in the tournament to City Year, a charity focused on keeping kids in school and on track to graduate.

    The prize pool for the Big One for One Drop sits at more than $37,000,000. The event is expected to meet its 48-player cap, with the winner receiving more than $16 million.

    You may remember Einhorn from his 18th-place finish at the 2006 WSOP Main Event when he donated all of his $659,730 in winnings to charity. Einhorn also landed on the sports media radar in 2011 when he attempted to buy a minority share in the New York Mets, but negotiations with the club ended after a few months.


    Read more: http://www.pokernews.com/news/2012/06/nightly-turbo-steve-zolotow-legal-battle-einhorn-big-one-12921.htm

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 06:12 PM #13

    jjjz - 23 June 2012 07:33 PM
    johnG - 23 June 2012 12:44 AM

    I’m thrilled (and a bit surprised) that aapl is holding above a PE of 14 at this stage of the earnings “run up”.

    Mostly holding pat right now. Just watching the dealer and the other players at the table for any ‘funny business’.

      cheers to all
        JohnG

    John, please elaborate… Are you thinking at this stage in the cycle Apple should be trading lower than 14 PE?

    Yes he is a real Bear.wink

    I thought for sure we would see a p/e of 12.58.  That did not happen

    Now I think we have seen the lows of the summer.

    We should move up from here I just don’t think we will get much more then 630 by earnings.

    Three weeks left.

         
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    Posted: 23 June 2012 07:03 PM #14

    jjjz - 23 June 2012 07:33 PM
    johnG - 23 June 2012 12:44 AM

    I’m thrilled (and a bit surprised) that aapl is holding above a PE of 14 at this stage of the earnings “run up”.

    Mostly holding pat right now. Just watching the dealer and the other players at the table for any ‘funny business’.

      cheers to all
        JohnG

    John, please elaborate… Are you thinking at this stage in the cycle Apple should be trading lower than 14 PE?

    The Q1 run up had the trailing PE at ~12 and for Q2 it was ~14. I’m of the opinion that aapl will likely be have a pre Q3 earnings release PE range of 12-14. So, the current PE (14.19) is a pleasant surprise to me. The run from here to July 17/24 will likely be determined by overall market bias.

    New rethink: The recent fed announcement has me rethinking the near/medium term market bias and I now think it’s very possible the overall market will trend up. If that comes to pass I expect aapl to “follow” along and trend higher into the EC.

      cheers
        JohnG

    [ Edited: 23 June 2012 07:06 PM by johnG ]      
  • Posted: 23 June 2012 07:17 PM #15

    johnG - 23 June 2012 10:03 PM
    jjjz - 23 June 2012 07:33 PM
    johnG - 23 June 2012 12:44 AM

    I’m thrilled (and a bit surprised) that aapl is holding above a PE of 14 at this stage of the earnings “run up”.

    Mostly holding pat right now. Just watching the dealer and the other players at the table for any ‘funny business’.

      cheers to all
        JohnG

    John, please elaborate… Are you thinking at this stage in the cycle Apple should be trading lower than 14 PE?

    The Q1 run up had the trailing PE at ~12 and for Q2 it was ~14. I’m of the opinion that aapl will likely be have a pre Q3 earnings release PE range of 12-14. So, the current PE (14.19) is a pleasant surprise to me. The run from here to July 17/24 will likely be determined by overall market bias.

    New rethink: The recent fed announcement has me rethinking the near/medium term market bias and I now think it’s very possible the overall market will trend up. If that comes to pass I expect aapl to “follow” along and trend higher into the EC.

      cheers
        JohnG

    TTM earnings after Q4 2011 was $27.66.

    The low close in November, 2011 was 363.57, for a TTM of 13.14.

    The high close in November was 406.23

    The run actually started from the low of $378.94 on December 15. 2011.  At that price the TTM P/E was 13.7, not ~12.

    Jan 24, the day that earnings was reported, AAPL closed at $420.41, a TTM P/E right before earnings was announced of 15.2