AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 12:21 AM #16

    Here is timeline for the past several quarters:

    April 24, 2012 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, March 31st).  16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings.

    Jan 24, 2012 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, Dec 31).  15 trading days from end of quarter to earnings.

    Oct 18, 2011 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday Sep 24th).  17 trading days from end of quarter to earnings.

    July 19, 2011 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday June 25th).  16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings.

    April 20, 2011 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, March 26th).  16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings.  18 trading days from end of quarter to earnings.

    This quarter ends on Saturday, June 30th.  The shortest time frame above is 15 trading days after the quarter ends.  15 trading days is Monday, July 23rd.  I would be very surprised if Apple reported prior to that.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 12:24 AM #17

    JDSoCal - 25 June 2012 03:16 AM

    Yahoo Finance is listing it @ 7-16, a Monday. Probably just a typo or a wild-assed guess. Apple hasn’t held a Monday earnings release since Oct 2010. Typically Tuesday, occasionally Wed.

    Regardless, let’s get the run-up rolling!

    Agreed. 

    And interesting they’re picking July 16.  Yahoo is picking dates for other companies that report earnings this July as well.  It sounds early to me.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 12:34 AM #18

    Jon Gruber tags the NYT, calling them out on headline bait. 

    http://daringfireball.net/

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 12:38 AM #19

    bick - 25 June 2012 03:16 AM
    AAPLtini - 25 June 2012 12:59 AM

    What’s the best guess as to the timing of the earnings announcement? Before or after options expiration?

    No need to guess. Earnings call is after OpEx, which is better for making money anyway. Just look to last quarter for the playbook. Fiscal quarter always ends on the last Saturday of the month.

    How will your July options volatility premium change when the date is officially announced? It won’t change, because the market has already priced in the date for July 24th or 25th.

    It’s always good to keep an eye on the IV for front month options right before the earnings date is announced.  There are times when the market is unsure of the date and the IV does take a big drop when the date is officially announced.  January was a great example of this….

    Look at the below info on how Apple and a near the money Call and near the money Put traded this past Jan 3rd and 4th. 

    Date               Apple         Apple Jan 21 410 Call         Apple Jan 21 410 Put    
    Jan 3, 2012       $411.23             $10.80                   $9.70
    Jan 4, 2012       $413.44             $9.90                     $6.38

    As you can see, Apple moved up $2.21 but the Jan 410 call dropped by 8.33% and the 410 Put dropped by 34% in 1 day.  The implied volatility for the Apple 410 calls was 28.17% on Jan 3rd and dropped to 22.68% on Jan 4th. 

    The IV for the at the money July 580 calls is currently at 24.35%—not as high as the 28.17% in early January.  If it moved up significantly over the next week there could be an opportunity for a trade on the volatility drop once earnings were officially announced to be after op ex.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 12:40 AM #20

    Monday

    R4       600.21
      midpoint   596.83
    R3       593.44
      midpoint   590.06
    R2       586.67
      midpoint   585.53
    R1       584.39
      midpoint   582.15
    PP       579.90
      midpoint   578.76
    S1       577.62
      midpoint   575.38
    S2       573.13
      midpoint   569.75
    S3       566.36
      midpoint   562.98
    S4       559.59

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 01:23 AM #21

    Here is what I see this week.

    We should be stronger then overall market simply because we were weaker all of last week.  I don’t see the market doing much and aapl about the same.

    By Friday we should be 5 to 10 points higher then last Friday.

    I may be able to come up with a little cash and buy a very small batch of unripped Apples. grin

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 01:51 AM #22

    Mercel - 25 June 2012 03:34 AM

    Jon Gruber tags the NYT, calling them out on headline bait. 

    http://daringfireball.net/

    The annual cost to charge an iPad is just $1.36, according to the Electric Power Research Institute, a non-profit research and development group funded by electric utilities. By comparison, a 60-watt compact fluorescent bulb costs $1.61, a desktop PC adds up to $28.21 and a refrigerator runs you $65.72.

    But there?s an even cheaper way to go than the iPad. EPRI calculated the cost of power needed to fuel an iPhone 4 for year: just 38 cents.

    If The New York Times had run this story, the headline would have been, ?iPads Cost Four Times More to Charge Than iPhones?.

    Reminds me of an LBJ quote. “If one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River, the headline that afternoon would read:

    “President Can’t Swim.”“

    Signature

    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 02:00 AM #23

    Bear in mind, Apple has a little more to account for than it did back then LOL :

    http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2006/07/19Apple-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results.html

    For future reference, the PR library goes back to 2000.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 02:51 AM #24

    I hope some of you are writing the New York Times over its “and-the-hits-just-keep-coming” coverage of Apple, Inc.

    Here’s a link to make it especially easy:

    http://www.nytimes.com/content/help/site/editorial/letters/letters.html

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 03:20 AM #25

    If you can’t report fairly on the the quintessential (and, it may yet be, biggest by annual revenue) American success story - and you haven’t even been denied access to Apple keynotes because you didn’t do something like purchase a stolen iPhone prototype - well, you just can’t report fairly.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 10:29 AM #26

    Just a line from Apple insider

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/06/22/china_mobile_3g_user_growth_slow_carrier_is_in_need_of_an_iphone.html

    “In all, China had 166.9 million 3G subscribers at the end of May, up 4.8 percent from a month prior”

    That’s roughly 8 million more 3G customers per month. First , that’s like adding a country like Canada every 2,3 months. Second, when they start upgrading after 2/ 3 years of use of the same phone..watch out. Finally, that’s still only about 16% of overall mobile subscribers in china.
    with 100% YOY growth, it still leaves over 2 years of time before market sees any time of slowdown.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 10:36 AM #27

    Mav - 25 June 2012 06:20 AM

    If you can’t report fairly on the the quintessential (and, it may yet be, biggest by annual revenue) American success story - and you haven’t even been denied access to Apple keynotes because you didn’t do something like purchase a stolen iPhone prototype - well, you just can’t report fairly.

    Sadly, fair reporting no longer matters to even supposedly credible news sources like the Times.  Even they have abandoned their principles in return for page hits.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 June 2012 10:45 AM #28

    mstefa - 25 June 2012 01:29 PM

    Just a line from Apple insider

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/06/22/china_mobile_3g_user_growth_slow_carrier_is_in_need_of_an_iphone.html

    “In all, China had 166.9 million 3G subscribers at the end of May, up 4.8 percent from a month prior”

    That’s roughly 8 million more 3G customers per month. First , that’s like adding a country like Canada every 2,3 months. Second, when they start upgrading after 2/ 3 years of use of the same phone..watch out. Finally, that’s still only about 16% of overall mobile subscribers in china.
    with 100% YOY growth, it still leaves over 2 years of time before market sees any time of slowdown.

    I think this quote puts it right out there….

     

     

    “Noting that China Mobile’s total 3G subscribers grew just 3.9 percent month over month in May, analyst Brian White with Topeka Capital Markets said in a note to investors on Friday that the world’s largest carrier is “in need of the iPhone.” With 677.5 million total subscribers in May, China Mobile had 65 percent of all wireless subscribers in China, but with just 61.9 million 3G customers, it accounted for only 38 percent of 3G users in the nation.

    It’s not a coincidence to White that the iPhone-less China Mobile continues to struggle in adding 3G subscribers while its smaller rivals, China Mobile and China Unicom, both offer the iPhone and are adding 3G subscribers at a faster clip.

    In May, China Unicom had 54.5 million 3G subscribers, up 2.73 million users and 5.3 percent month over month from April. And China Telecom added 2.6 million 3G subscribers in May, growing 5.7 percent month over month.”

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 11:42 AM #29

    Incorrect info retracted

    :(

    [ Edited: 25 June 2012 12:18 PM by tradervic21 ]      
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 11:50 AM #30

    tradervic21 - 25 June 2012 02:42 PM

    Incorrect.

    This quarter ends Sat June 23rd.

    Earning will probably be released Tuesday July 17th, before option expiration.

    95% sure…

    What is your source for this?  I’ve posed the question to Investor Relations.  Thanks.