AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 25 June 2012 06:50 PM #46

    Bit of a dead zone in here today?

    Not a good day for the overall markets, but like last week I’m hoping for a rebound tomorrow.

    Thanks for the X&0’s charts LMiPD, nice & easy way to view those all important resistance levels!

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 06:59 PM #47

    It’s a very low-visibility market right now.  Right now I’m in wait-and-see mode.  The markets _should_ move from this level this week, just a question of direction.

    Quite a bit of economic data and news still on tap.  I think that’ll predominate over any “quarter-end window dressing” or whatever - though it could help AAPL a little bit if there’s any “we need to have AAPL on the books before the divvy” institutional “laggards” still out there. 

    No real “news” from Apple ‘til next week, when we probably find out when the earnings release is scheduled.

    [ Edited: 25 June 2012 07:02 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 07:16 PM #48

    lovemyipad - 25 June 2012 09:17 PM

    AAPL HUGS & KISSES CHART:

    Resistance levels in red.  Support levels in green.  Yellow is a flip-flopper at the moment.

    Break through one, target the next one.  Fail to break, turn around and repeat in the other direction.

    Some people like to buy at support and sell at resistance.  Others like to buy on breakouts above resistance.  Others sell on breakdowns below support.  Use this roadmap to figure out where YOU would buy and sell.

    .....

    I bought 6 Jan 14 780/800 BCSs on the initial down turn around 10am. Sadly, they are now quite under water, but I feel comfortable with a year and a half left before expiration.  I was tempted to buy 20 July 12 650 calls at $0.39, but chickened out, I’m too much a novice at this point.  they’re still hovering around $0.39, oh the Sirens are singing the song of quick profits still in my ear. Could end up being a $780 lesson, must resist.

    I’m down to a little over $2000 left to invest before earnings, all long stuff, I’ve got my orders saved, if they don’t fill I won’t care at this point.  Will hold the rest of my cash for any after earnings WTF sales. 

    I still see the danger of AAPL getting down into the $550s after earnings if the TTEs only gets to $44.76 if Horace Dediu’s $11.54 earnings is correct. I don’t expect it, but am trying to plan for if it happens.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 08:31 PM #49

    I may be wrong but it seems to me that AAPL reports the first Tuesday after monthly OPEX.  If that’s the case then it should be 7/24th.

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 08:42 PM #50

    I’m pretty sure it’s just a practical function of when the fiscal quarter ends…

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 09:19 PM #51

    rickag - 25 June 2012 10:16 PM
    lovemyipad - 25 June 2012 09:17 PM

    AAPL HUGS & KISSES CHART:

    Resistance levels in red.  Support levels in green.  Yellow is a flip-flopper at the moment.

    Break through one, target the next one.  Fail to break, turn around and repeat in the other direction.

    Some people like to buy at support and sell at resistance.  Others like to buy on breakouts above resistance.  Others sell on breakdowns below support.  Use this roadmap to figure out where YOU would buy and sell.

    .....

    I bought 6 Jan 14 780/800 BCSs on the initial down turn around 10am. Sadly, they are now quite under water, but I feel comfortable with a year and a half left before expiration.  I was tempted to buy 20 July 12 650 calls at $0.39, but chickened out, I’m too much a novice at this point.  they’re still hovering around $0.39, oh the Sirens are singing the song of quick profits still in my ear. Could end up being a $780 lesson, must resist.

    I’m down to a little over $2000 left to invest before earnings, all long stuff, I’ve got my orders saved, if they don’t fill I won’t care at this point.  Will hold the rest of my cash for any after earnings WTF sales. 

    I still see the danger of AAPL getting down into the $550s after earnings if the TTEs only gets to $44.76 if Horace Dediu’s $11.54 earnings is correct. I don’t expect it, but am trying to plan for if it happens.

    Horace was one of the first to observe a cash per share vs share price ratio of approximately 1:5 for AAPL.

    There is no plausible explanation for why this is (other than it being a coincidence), but the shareprice has in the last few years followed this pattern approximately from quarter to quarter.

    Apple should have approx $125.00 per share after July earnings are announced , which would imply a share price next quarter of about $625 per share if the pattern holds.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 09:51 PM #52

    2% drop with low volume is a good sign that this is retail investors cashing in after hitting 590 last week.

    We will see a 15 point move in the opposite direction this week.

    I was off on my 570 prediction from last week by one day.

    Not worried we will do fine this week by Friday.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 10:04 PM #53

    omacvi - 26 June 2012 12:51 AM

    2% drop with low volume is a good sign that this is retail investors cashing in after hitting 590 last week.

    We will see a 15 point move in the opposite direction this week.

    I was off on my 570 prediction from last week by one day.

    Not worried we will do fine this week by Friday.

    I hope your right. At this point I would be happy with a close on friday over 580.

    When I sell my apple stock then it keeps going up, but when i buy then it goes down. Trading apple is difficult as it is very difficult to predict the next day if its going up or down.

    Back in Febuary it was easy, go all in on full margin and apple will be up most of the time, nowadays its tough as nails to trade apple.

    I lost s lot of money today.

    [ Edited: 25 June 2012 10:07 PM by nate010203 ]      
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    Posted: 25 June 2012 10:22 PM #54

    Burgess - 26 June 2012 12:19 AM
    rickag - 25 June 2012 10:16 PM
    lovemyipad - 25 June 2012 09:17 PM

    AAPL HUGS & KISSES CHART:

    Resistance levels in red.  Support levels in green.  Yellow is a flip-flopper at the moment.

    Break through one, target the next one.  Fail to break, turn around and repeat in the other direction.

    Some people like to buy at support and sell at resistance.  Others like to buy on breakouts above resistance.  Others sell on breakdowns below support.  Use this roadmap to figure out where YOU would buy and sell.

    .....

    I bought 6 Jan 14 780/800 BCSs on the initial down turn around 10am. Sadly, they are now quite under water, but I feel comfortable with a year and a half left before expiration.  I was tempted to buy 20 July 12 650 calls at $0.39, but chickened out, I’m too much a novice at this point.  they’re still hovering around $0.39, oh the Sirens are singing the song of quick profits still in my ear. Could end up being a $780 lesson, must resist.

    I’m down to a little over $2000 left to invest before earnings, all long stuff, I’ve got my orders saved, if they don’t fill I won’t care at this point.  Will hold the rest of my cash for any after earnings WTF sales. 

    I still see the danger of AAPL getting down into the $550s after earnings if the TTEs only gets to $44.76 if Horace Dediu’s $11.54 earnings is correct. I don’t expect it, but am trying to plan for if it happens.

    Horace was one of the first to observe a cash per share vs share price ratio of approximately 1:5 for AAPL.

    There is no plausible explanation for why this is (other than it being a coincidence), but the shareprice has in the last few years followed this pattern approximately from quarter to quarter.

    Apple should have approx $125.00 per share after July earnings are announced , which would imply a share price next quarter of about $625 per share if the pattern holds.

    You make a good point about Horace’s analysis, which is impeccable.  And yes there is no plausible explanation because I think Wall Street in implausible.

    I’m not saying that AAPL will drop into the $550s after earnings, but that a chance exists if Wall Street punishes Apple for earnings they do not like.

    AAPL has seen some pretty wild swings, as in the recent drop into the $530s in the middle of the current quarter.  I am trying to prepare for it, if it happens, by holding a ~ 40 - 50% cash position, just in case.  I hope it doesn’t drop that far, as my current positions will benefit greatly.  If it doesn’t drop in a WTF sale then I will deploy more of my cash after the July earning based on the new data.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 10:39 PM #55

    Maybe I’m being too simplistic but I really don’t think WS is thinking AAPL is going to report some incredible earnings this quarter.  Don’t you think it will all be about the guidance?...in particular if they are more positive than the conservative way they normally tend to be?  But what do I know.

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2012 11:59 PM #56

    Phoebear611 - 26 June 2012 01:39 AM

    Maybe I’m being too simplistic but I really don’t think WS is thinking AAPL is going to report some incredible earnings this quarter.  Don’t you think it will all be about the guidance?...in particular if they are more positive than the conservative way they normally tend to be?  But what do I know.

    WS is playing a game by its rules that are made up as they go along.  If only valuation was based on eps and guidance (that would be too easy).  I’m certainly not valuing Apple at a multiplier of cash.

    People can be forgiven for trying to unlock the black box, but it’s a fool’s game.  For myself, I’m just buying longer term LEAPS.  Weeklies are gambling, pure and simple.  At least with Vegas, one knows the odds going in.  With WS, one doesn’t know if the game is craps, blackjack or baccarat.

         
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    Posted: 26 June 2012 12:03 AM #57

    Phoebear611 - 26 June 2012 01:39 AM

    Maybe I’m being too simplistic but I really don’t think WS is thinking AAPL is going to report some incredible earnings this quarter.  Don’t you think it will all be about the guidance?...in particular if they are more positive than the conservative way they normally tend to be?  But what do I know.

    WS expectations are somewhat subdued (rightly so) for this quarter. This sentiment will work in aapl’s favor only if Apple reports >=$11.50 and guidance similar or greater to this quarter. Next quarter’s guidance will pivot on the ip5 release schedule.

      cheers
        JohnG

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 01:52 AM #58

    rickag - 25 June 2012 03:48 PM
    rickag - 25 June 2012 12:55 AM

    Clueless.  A $46 earnings @ a P/E of 13 makes AAPL about $600, and @ 13.5 makes AAPL about $620.

    At $600 with the TTE of $41 the P/E would run up to 14.6, and @ $620 the P/E would have to run up to 15.1 before earnings.

    I’m new to this but would put the highest run up to earnings @ $620, with a chance of a short pull back before the run up.

    On further review, if I use Horace Dediu’s earning estimate of $11.54 for this quarter then TTE earnings becomes $44.76 after earnings report.
    Then
    At $44.76 earnings a P/E of 13 would mean AAPL would be about $581 and @ 13.5 = APPL about $605. 

    If Apple reports $11.54 in earnings, I could see Wall Street punish AAPL back down to a P/E of 12.5 or even 12 and we revisit the $530s or $550s.

    I sure hope Horace Dediu is wrong, but just in case I am saving about 50% of my account in cash and stock to weather any storm.

    If AAPL reports less than $12.50 I’m running to the nearest bomb shelter.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 02:15 AM #59

    omacvi - 26 June 2012 12:51 AM

    2% drop with low volume is a good sign that this is retail investors cashing in after hitting 590 last week.

    We will see a 15 point move in the opposite direction this week.

    I was off on my 570 prediction from last week by one day.

    Not worried we will do fine this week by Friday.

    Last Friday was a painful day for me (financially). I hel June Wk4 $575/$589 BCS. AAPL Opened the session down about $9 putting me way under water, then went lower. Aargh, what to do. Well, I hung in there until my position was positive $5500 and Closed it.

    Now the deal is that I was in Portland OR for my 47th high school reunion, and we had an event that started at noon. This weighed on my mind as well as the weakness that AAPL had been showing all morning. So when I checked in to see how AAPL fared at the Close imagine my dismay when I saw AAPL had Closed above $580. Selling when I did cost me $21,000+.

    That’s twice now, in the last 3 weeks that AAPL has started Friday with me under water, only to finish well in the money.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 02:16 AM #60

    Tuesday

    R4       601.94
      midpoint   597.22
    R3       592.51
      midpoint   587.79
    R2       583.08
      midpoint   580.00
    R1       576.92
      midpoint   575.29
    PP       573.65
      midpoint   570.57
    S1       567.49
      midpoint   565.86
    S2       564.22
      midpoint   559.50
    S3       554.79
      midpoint   550.07
    S4       545.36