AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 26 June 2012 02:27 AM #61

    Gregg Thurman - 26 June 2012 05:15 AM
    omacvi - 26 June 2012 12:51 AM

    2% drop with low volume is a good sign that this is retail investors cashing in after hitting 590 last week.

    We will see a 15 point move in the opposite direction this week.

    I was off on my 570 prediction from last week by one day.

    Not worried we will do fine this week by Friday.

    Last Friday was a painful day for me (financially). I hel June Wk4 $575/$589 BCS. AAPL Opened the session down about $9 putting me way under water, then went lower. Aargh, what to do. Well, I hung in there until my position was positive $5500 and Closed it.

    Now the deal is that I was in Portland OR for my 47th high school reunion, and we had an event that started at noon. This weighed on my mind as well as the weakness that AAPL had been showing all morning. So when I checked in to see how AAPL fared at the Close imagine my dismay when I saw AAPL had Closed above $580. Selling when I did cost me $21,000+.

    That’s twice now, in the last 3 weeks that AAPL has started Friday with me under water, only to finish well in the money.

    That is why I don’t trade options or even attempt to day trade common.

    I will trade options but it will be 1 and 2 year leaps.

    Much to unpredictable and volitale for me at this point to do monthlies let alone weeklies.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 02:28 AM #62

    willrob - 26 June 2012 05:16 AM

    Tuesday

    R4       601.94
      midpoint   597.22
    R3       592.51
      midpoint   587.79
    R2       583.08
      midpoint   580.00
    R1       576.92
      midpoint   575.29
    PP       573.65
      midpoint   570.57
    S1       567.49
      midpoint   565.86
    S2       564.22
      midpoint   559.50
    S3       554.79
      midpoint   550.07
    S4       545.36

    Thanks Will.

    OMCVI, here’s to your “feeling good about Friday” sentiment. Sunday evening I placed an order for 100 June Wk 5 $565/$570 BCSs anticipating a $7 drop in AAPL. I got the drop and the contracts only to watch AAPL drop another $3. My response was to pick up 40 June Wk 4 $560/$570 BCSs.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 09:13 AM #63

    I am long stock and play side bets with options.  My long options are usually months out and fairly deep in the money but I use weeklies to sell the out of the money either against my options or my stock to simply take in premium.  I’d like to think that I was really good at it and knew weeklies should be sold but the truth is that initially I was on the other side of the trade and bought weeklies twice and the premium got sucked out of them very, very quickly. 
    Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.  So I realized I should be a seller, not a buyer of the weeklies. I could not be happier with the results of the strategy up to now at least.  Even these last two Fridays with the slow sharp climb into the close - I am still out of the money.  I just keep hitting singles - and although they aren’t as exhilarating as hitting a home run…winning in the end is what it’s all about, right?!

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  • Posted: 26 June 2012 09:13 AM #64

    omacvi - 26 June 2012 05:27 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 26 June 2012 05:15 AM
    omacvi - 26 June 2012 12:51 AM

    2% drop with low volume is a good sign that this is retail investors cashing in after hitting 590 last week.

    We will see a 15 point move in the opposite direction this week.

    I was off on my 570 prediction from last week by one day.

    Not worried we will do fine this week by Friday.

    Last Friday was a painful day for me (financially). I hel June Wk4 $575/$589 BCS. AAPL Opened the session down about $9 putting me way under water, then went lower. Aargh, what to do. Well, I hung in there until my position was positive $5500 and Closed it.

    Now the deal is that I was in Portland OR for my 47th high school reunion, and we had an event that started at noon. This weighed on my mind as well as the weakness that AAPL had been showing all morning. So when I checked in to see how AAPL fared at the Close imagine my dismay when I saw AAPL had Closed above $580. Selling when I did cost me $21,000+.

    That’s twice now, in the last 3 weeks that AAPL has started Friday with me under water, only to finish well in the money.

    That is why I don’t trade options or even attempt to day trade common.

    I will trade options but it will be 1 and 2 year leaps.

    Much to unpredictable and volitale for me at this point to do monthlies let alone weeklies.

    And this is why I don’t dwell I.e. do the calculations on what could have been.  My thoughts are you don’t have to buy at the low nor sell at the high and it’s impossible with any predictive system today.  You just have to be partly right.  You preserve capital and go on to the next trade.  I was telling my sons yesterday, there are plenty of good companies out there but the timing of the investment can mean a significant difference so be patient.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 10:13 AM #65

    Phoebear611 - 26 June 2012 12:13 PM

    I am long stock and play side bets with options.  My long options are usually months out and fairly deep in the money but I use weeklies to sell the out of the money either against my options or my stock to simply take in premium.  I’d like to think that I was really good at it and knew weeklies should be sold but the truth is that initially I was on the other side of the trade and bought weeklies twice and the premium got sucked out of them very, very quickly. 
    Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.  So I realized I should be a seller, not a buyer of the weeklies. I could not be happier with the results of the strategy up to now at least.  Even these last two Fridays with the slow sharp climb into the close - I am still out of the money.  I just keep hitting singles - and although they aren’t as exhilarating as hitting a home run…winning in the end is what it’s all about, right?!

    Phoebear611,

    With selling weekly calls, how far OTM do you go with the options?

    many thanks.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 10:18 AM #66

    usually about 2 or 3 strikes ....last two weeks I sold the 595s and 590s - rule of thumb is I like to sell premium over $1 to make it worth while. 
    Truth is that I HATE what weeklies have done to the stock and wish they would remove them but while they are here I need to use them to my advantage and it seems to be working out for me for now.

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 10:38 AM #67

    Phoebear611 - 26 June 2012 01:18 PM

    usually about 2 or 3 strikes ....last two weeks I sold the 595s and 590s - rule of thumb is I like to sell premium over $1 to make it worth while. 
    Truth is that I HATE what weeklies have done to the stock and wish they would remove them but while they are here I need to use them to my advantage and it seems to be working out for me for now.

    Thanks for the prompt reply! Do you usually sell on Thurs/Fri when the new weeklies come out or wait till Mon/Tues/Weds to see where open interest is?

         
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    Posted: 26 June 2012 10:53 AM #68

    Bought some July calls 560 and 600s.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 11:02 AM #69

    Nevyn - 26 June 2012 01:53 PM

    Bought some July calls 560 and 600s.

    same here, 590’s

         
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    Posted: 26 June 2012 11:08 AM #70

    Would like to see AAPL go and stay above the 50-day MA.

    AMZN price action is just insane…

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    “Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” Albert Einstein

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 11:19 AM #71

    Expected a QE window dressing pop this week followied by earnings run after July 4th next week. Dont think any of this is happening.We have become the red headed step child of the market.

         
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    Posted: 26 June 2012 11:25 AM #72

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    Won’t not be surprised for us to lose a few more points today.

    Not happy that we continue to be weaker then the nasdaq.  Volume has picked up a little and I suspect margin calls are kicking in soon.

    I am starting to thing we will experience the long dull summer I had suspected since April earnings.

    We should get a pop into earnings and post, but if the numbers are soft in anyway we will sell off again.

    Just more time to buy up more the shares at a discount until sept.

    I should point out that I think a p/e of 13 would be the low of the summer post earnings.

    [ Edited: 26 June 2012 11:28 AM by omacvi ]      
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 11:49 AM #73

    omacvi - 26 June 2012 02:25 PM

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    Won’t not be surprised for us to lose a few more points today.

    Not happy that we continue to be weaker then the nasdaq.  Volume has picked up a little and I suspect margin calls are kicking in soon.

    I am starting to thing we will experience the long dull summer I had suspected since April earnings.

    We should get a pop into earnings and post, but if the numbers are soft in anyway we will sell off again.

    Just more time to buy up more the shares at a discount until sept.

    I should point out that I think a p/e of 13 would be the low of the summer post earnings.

    Well, Sponge, they may mock you but you’ve been the most accurate predictor here for the last couple of weeks. I seem to remember you claiming we’d revisit $570. I wish you were wrong but I need to give you credit.

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 12:31 PM #74

    joel90069 - 26 June 2012 02:49 PM

    Well, Sponge, they may mock you but you’ve been the most accurate predictor here for the last couple of weeks. I seem to remember you claiming we’d revisit $570. I wish you were wrong but I need to give you credit.

    Probably the funniest (and unintentional) post in awhile.

    In unrelated news, it was revealed that Omacvi and Joel are the same person, ala Tony Clifton.

    Nice ruse!  LOL

         
  • Posted: 26 June 2012 12:41 PM #75

    Hardly, Mercel, though we do live fairly close to each other.