MS at Crossroads

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    Posted: 28 June 2012 08:22 PM #46

    Cloud vs native apps deserve a separate thread. IMO, ubiquitous data connectivity is still many years away. Native apps will rule at least for this decade.

    Isn’t it interesting that cloud-centric Google decided to offer offline maps, email and voice dictation capabilities?

         
  • Posted: 28 June 2012 11:33 PM #47

    The telegraph replaced the Pony Express.  Quickly and all of it.  But that is not the only path for major disruptions to follow.

    How many radios did TV displace?  How many mainframes did PCs displace?  How many autos did airplanes displace? 

    If Cook is right, the tablet and the “computer” are hired for different jobs.  If the market for computers is x, the market for both products combined is not 1.1x or even 1.5x.  Within a short time it will surpass 2x.

    Computers will continue to do jobs that tablets are not better at.  Tablets will take over some computer jobs that computers are not better at.  But the big disruption comes from tablets doing new jobs and jobs being done with paper or cardboard (for example).

         
  • Posted: 28 June 2012 11:33 PM #48

    Drew Bear - 27 June 2012 01:28 AM

    FalKirk, how soon do you think this PC/iPad split will hit 50/50 in Enterprise use? When will we see Microsoft’s revenue from Windows and Office stall?

    I’m not Falkirk, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

    I think Windows and Office have already stalled. MSFT has not released a compelling upgrade to Windows since XP (12+ years?). The only reason we see increasing numbers of Win7 is through new computer sales, and in the PC world those sales, in absolute terms, are declining.

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  • Posted: 28 June 2012 11:39 PM #49

    FalKirk - 27 June 2012 02:19 AM
    Drew Bear - 27 June 2012 01:28 AM

    FalKirk, how soon do you think this PC/iPad split will hit 50/50 in Enterprise use? When will we see Microsoft’s revenue from Windows and Office stall?

    Since I’m just making these numbers up out of my head, I’ll say 2017 and 2015, respectively.

    If I had told you, in 2007, that by 2012, Palm and Windows Mobile would be gone and Nokia and RIM would be on their death beds, you would have (rightfully) called me nuts. What we’re seeing in tablets today is just as big, if not bigger, than the disruption we saw in phones in 2007.

    A great bid AGREE.  One thing we are not noting is that the iPad does not require a computer to sync with, and only 5% of the world’s population have access to a computer.  But they have cellular service, which means cellular data, and access to the Internet.

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  • Posted: 28 June 2012 11:45 PM #50

    FalKirk - 27 June 2012 03:04 AM
    Mav - 27 June 2012 02:55 AM

    Nice.  How’s that work?

    Ben Bajain of Tech.Pinons saw some of my work and asked me to write an article every other Thursday. I think they’re short handed this week and Ben is attending the I/O conference tomorrow, so they asked me, tonight, to write something for tomorrow. Yikes!

    As you know, I can write a mile a minute, but to write a good long piece, I need to have a theme and I’m still trying to come up with one. Suggestions?

    How about addressing the 95% of the world’s population that don’t have access to a computer or the Internet, and how an LTE equipped iPad can change that (with localized apps), and the emerging use case for iPads in the workforce that is not desk bound?

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2012 02:14 PM #51

    Gregg Thurman - 29 June 2012 02:45 AM
    FalKirk - 27 June 2012 03:04 AM

    As you know, I can write a mile a minute, but to write a good long piece, I need to have a theme and I’m still trying to come up with one. Suggestions?

    How about addressing the 95% of the world’s population that don’t have access to a computer or the Internet, and how an LTE equipped iPad can change that (with localized apps), and the emerging use case for iPads in the workforce that is not desk bound?

    Beyond my ken, but you’ve given me food for thought.

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2012 03:37 PM #52

    Drew Bear - 28 June 2012 11:22 PM

    Cloud vs native apps deserve a separate thread. IMO, ubiquitous data connectivity is still many years away. Native apps will rule at least for this decade.

    Isn’t it interesting that cloud-centric Google decided to offer offline maps, email and voice dictation capabilities?

    There are many facts and trends working against Cloud-only apps.

    1. Network ubiquity as mentioned.  Many people depend on 100% access to their apps.  90 or 95% availability will not cut it.  Cloud means that every time you don’t have network access including being on a plane, your work environment disappears.  WiFi is not ubiquitous enough, so cellular is a required component to make this concept work.  Cellular will not cut it.  See below.

    2. Network quality.  Today, we still have situations in major cities, where email still hardly works at times.  This is not a rare event - it happens all the time.  The networks cannot deliver a quality thin client experience.  For certain hours of the day yes, but a great cell connection one minute can degrade to an unusable cellular network in the very next minute.  In our company, we are attempting to deliver a real-time video experience over cell, at very low bandwidths.  We live with this one every day. 

    3. Carriers who are ending unlimited data plans.  That is a huge disincentive to thin client computing from everywhere.

    4. Roaming charges.  Cross any border and you better be careful with cellular plans unless you want an outrageous bill.  Thin client would cost you a fortune.

         
  • Posted: 06 July 2012 08:08 PM #53

    “it’s safe to expect a “parity” of iOS+OS X vs. Windows within one or two years.

    “The consequences are dire for Microsoft. The wiping out of any platform advantage around Windows will render it vulnerable to direct competition. This is not something it had to worry about before. Windows will have to compete not only for users, but for developer talent, investment by enterprises and the implicit goodwill it has had for more than a decade.

    “It will, most importantly, have a psychological effect. Realizing that Windows is not a hegemony will unleash market forces that nobody can predict.”

    Horace Dediu, ASYMCO

    Here’s my argument:

    1) Microsoft Windows is trapped on the desktop.

    2) If Microsoft can’t break into tablets (and Windows) they will soon become a minority player in every way.

    3) Tablets will soon outnumber notebooks and desktops.

    4) Windows will lose its monopoly advantage.

    Conclusion: Once the computing center shifts to tablets, IT will stop asking “Does it work with Windows”. Instead, they’ll be looking for software that works across phones, tablets, notebooks and desktops. Windows will not fit the bill and Microsoft’s Personal computing empire will begin a rapid decline.

         
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    Posted: 01 August 2012 02:44 PM #54

    Wintel takes kicking from Apple, market share at all-time low
    iPad whacks life out of PC founding fathers

    Figures from industry box-counter Canalys show 73 per cent of the 108.7 million PCs - desktops, notebooks, netbooks and pads - sold worldwide in Q2 were running on Microsoft’s OS and had Intel inside.

    “The whole time that tablet sales are growing, Microsoft and Intel’s market share is moving in the opposite direction because they don’t have a foothold in that market,” Tim Coulling, analyst at Canalys told The Channel.

    http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2012/08/01/wintel_canalys/


    http://www.canalys.com/newsroom/2012-will-bring-new-world-record-pc-shipments

         
  • Posted: 01 August 2012 05:49 PM #55

    One of the reasons disruption is so effective is because the incumbents don’t see the disruptor as a threat. How many times have you heard some Microsoft Advocates say that:

    1) Tablets are toys;
    2) Tablets are niche;
    3) Tablets are consumption rather than creation devices;
    4) Tablets don’t do “real” work; or
    5) Tablets aren’t even personal computers at all!

    Classic disruption. it’s unstoppable because no one is even trying to stop it!

    Now, to be fair, Microsoft isn’t as moronic as all of these lazy Microsoft lounge chair analysts. Microsoft saw the danger long ago and they are doing everything in their power to stem the tide. Everything about Windows 8 for the desktop, Windows 8 for tablets, Windows RT, The Surface and Window 8 phones SCREAMS desperation. Microsoft knows that if they don’t move into tablets in a big way its over.

    Here is my argument - again.

    In 2006 everyone asked if their hardware and their software was compatible with Windows.

    Today people still THINK that is the question that IT should be asking itself. But…

    - There are now more Android devices sold each year than Windows devices;
    - By the end of 2012, there will be more iOS devices sold each year than Windows devices;
    - As of today, Windows is a complete no show on phones and tablets;
    - Phones are still growing nearly 75% a year. Tablets are still growing nearly 100% a year;
    - Meanwhile, desktop sales are diminishing; and
    - Windows only works on desktops.

    In the near future - the VERY near future - IT is going to start asking “What desktop hardware and software works with my phones and my tablets.” When that day happens - and its already happening:

    - Windows will not only lose its monopoly status, it will also lose almost all of its appeal; and
    - Office will be discarded as a dinosaur that only works on a small portion of one’s computing devices.

    It all comes down to this Fall. If Microsoft is right, then their products will move them into tablets and they will be reborn in the Personal Computing Space. If Apple is right and touch and horizontal screens are inherently incompatible then…

    ...BOOM!

         
  • Posted: 01 August 2012 06:05 PM #56

    Drew Bear - 01 August 2012 05:44 PM


    http://www.canalys.com/newsroom/2012-will-bring-new-world-record-pc-shipments

    I think you might have buried the lead, Drew. Note the text I bolded, below:

    Perhaps the biggest talking point of the quarter was Microsoft?s decision to launch its own pads ? the Surface and Surface Pro. ?The information available to date suggests the prices of both will be too high to capture significant market share, and a direct sales approach will prove inadequate. We expect the Surface pads to have a similar impact on the PC industry as the Zune did in portable music players,? commented Canalys Analyst Tim Coulling.

    Canalys has advised PC vendors (Microsoft?s OEMs) to postpone launches of Windows RT pads until Microsoft rethinks the high license fee. Chris Jones, Canalys VP and Principal Analyst, added, ?Microsoft has upset some partners by bringing its own hardware to market. Marketing, distributing and servicing such hardware profitably is hard. Once the Surface makes a material dent in Microsoft?s P&L, it will need to repair relationships with PC vendors, who are already preparing lists of demands.?

         
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    Posted: 01 August 2012 06:16 PM #57

    Good catch, FalKirk. I admit I did not read the Canalys report. I just wanted to grab the graphic.

         
  • Posted: 01 August 2012 06:26 PM #58

    Drew Bear - 01 August 2012 09:16 PM

    Good catch, FalKirk. I admit I did not read the Canalys report. I just wanted to grab the graphic.

    Thanks. I can’t read all that stuff either. I was just looking for a good quote when I stumbled upon the above about seven-eighths of the way down the page. Apparently Canalysis didn’t think it was important enough to lead with either.

         
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    Posted: 01 August 2012 07:52 PM #59

    Nice catch indeed.

    Its hard to imagine Microsoft on ANY upward trend.  Surface, Windows 8.  The revenues might go up as some fools take a useless bet on Windows 8. 

    Windows 8 has been RTM (Released to Manufacturing).  Good luck.

    http://windowsteamblog.com/windows/b/bloggingwindows/

    EDIT: to add thanks to Falkirk—very informative set of recent posts.

    [ Edited: 01 August 2012 11:32 PM by Tetrachloride ]      
  • Posted: 01 August 2012 11:19 PM #60

    FalKirk - 01 August 2012 08:49 PM

    One of the reasons disruption is so effective is because the incumbents don’t see the disruptor as a threat. How many times have you heard some Microsoft Advocates say that:

    1) Tablets are toys;
    2) Tablets are niche;
    3) Tablets are consumption rather than creation devices;
    4) Tablets don’t do “real” work; or
    5) Tablets aren’t even personal computers at all!

    Classic disruption. it’s unstoppable because no one is even trying to stop it!

    Now, to be fair, Microsoft isn’t as moronic as all of these lazy Microsoft lounge chair analysts. Microsoft saw the danger long ago and they are doing everything in their power to stem the tide. Everything about Windows 8 for the desktop, Windows 8 for tablets, Windows RT, The Surface and Window 8 phones SCREAMS desperation. Microsoft knows that if they don’t move into tablets in a big way its over.

    Here is my argument - again.

    In 2006 everyone asked if their hardware and their software was compatible with Windows.

    Today people still THINK that is the question that IT should be asking itself. But…

    - There are now more Android devices sold each year than Windows devices;
    - By the end of 2012, there will be more iOS devices sold each year than Windows devices;
    - As of today, Windows is a complete no show on phones and tablets;
    - Phones are still growing nearly 75% a year. Tablets are still growing nearly 100% a year;
    - Meanwhile, desktop sales are diminishing; and
    - Windows only works on desktops.

    In the near future - the VERY near future - IT is going to start asking “What desktop hardware and software works with my phones and my tablets.” When that day happens - and its already happening:

    - Windows will not only lose its monopoly status, it will also lose almost all of its appeal; and
    - Office will be discarded as a dinosaur that only works on a small portion of one’s computing devices.

    It all comes down to this Fall. If Microsoft is right, then their products will move them into tablets and they will be reborn in the Personal Computing Space. If Apple is right and touch and horizontal screens are inherently incompatible then…

    ...BOOM!

    Excellent, FalKirk. This is why they pay you the big bucks.

    So it would seem that this is coming down to a two horse race, IOS and Android. What is your view about who will triumph, in what ways and by how much, in say five years time?