How many iPhones did apple sell in Q3?

  • Posted: 19 July 2012 08:43 PM #31

    adamthompson32 - 19 July 2012 11:18 PM

    I almost hope you’re right. 28 million iPhones means we’ll get ~22 million iPads (far more important than iPhone for the June Q).

    Can you explain your logic on this?  Is it based on a ratio of iPhones/iPads assumed in the guidance, then applying a percentage beat and assuming the same ratio?

         
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    Posted: 19 July 2012 08:46 PM #32

    adamthompson32 - 19 July 2012 11:18 PM
    Burgess - 19 July 2012 11:08 PM

    I’m sticking with a 28 million target.

    Verizon iphone sales were good, but Apple faced less competition in the states than it did internationally in June - in particular the Galaxy S3 was available internationally from the end of May and sold very well.

    I almost hope you’re right. 28 million iPhones means we’ll get ~22 million iPads (far more important than iPhone for the June Q).

    Im thinking 24 million ipads smile

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  • Posted: 19 July 2012 10:17 PM #33

    I feel like time and again, iPhones come in higher than expected while iPads come in lower than expected.  I’m thinking 33.5M iPhones, 17.5M iPads.

         
  • Posted: 19 July 2012 10:58 PM #34

    mcharliem - 20 July 2012 01:17 AM

    I feel like time and again, iPhones come in higher than expected while iPads come in lower than expected.  I’m thinking 33.5M iPhones, 17.5M iPads.

    Good observation.  I’m at 31M iPhones and 19.5 iPads.  Room for upside on both.

         
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    Posted: 19 July 2012 11:10 PM #35

    Gregg Thurman - 19 July 2012 07:02 PM
    Mercel - 19 July 2012 05:29 PM
    JDSoCal - 19 July 2012 04:40 PM

    Video of Jeffries’ Peter Misek talking about the iPhone 5, but warning about China’s recession and its impact on consumer electronics.

    Thinner? Wider? Details on the iPhone 5 Emerge

    I think he’s an empty suit.  At a minimum, he’s glib.

    Can’t argue with that sentiment.  A recession means (among other things) 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth.  Uh uh.  Not happening.

    Not that I am endorsing his comments (i.e., don’t shoot the messenger), but I do like to hear opposing viewpoints and not keep my head in the sand and only listen to Pollyannas.

    Additionally, if y’all really believe in China’s official GDP numbers, I have Kim Jong-Il’s golf handicap I’d like to sell you.

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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 10:58 AM #36

    bsilent - 19 July 2012 03:03 PM

    The Verizon number is out, 2.7M, and it means 31.3M iphones according to my horrible math,  a total guess on regional sales, and assuming the US share of sales remains the exact same (which is probably wrong since it’s been falling over time)

    Wow. My math is on track. ATT announced 3.7M iphones this AM

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 11:20 AM #37

    Not really… 3.63 and 3.7 are off by 70,000.    smile

    There are 3 parts to this equation in my view.  America, Europe, and China.  Looks like America is in line with expectations of a 15-20% sequential decrease in sales.

    I think its safe to say that Chinese sales will meet or beat based on the fact that this will be the 1st full full quarter having iphone4S for one of their carriers, combined with the fact that sales in China have been growing much faster than the developed world over the past year.  Even with a chinese overall economic growth slowdown, the iphone sales growth rate will still likely match previous quarters. 

    So that leaves us with the final portion of our equation:  What is going on with smartphone sales in Europe?  Based on the american data, I assume that if overall smartphone sales in europe increased substantially this quarter, iphone sales will beat current expectations.  So, how can we get an estimate for europe iphone sales over the past 3 months ?  Unfortunately, since Galaxy S3 sales came in to play this quarter, we can’t say much here about changes versus last quarter.

    Any ideas ?

     

     

    bsilent - 24 July 2012 01:58 PM
    bsilent - 19 July 2012 03:03 PM

    The Verizon number is out, 2.7M, and it means 31.3M iphones according to my horrible math,  a total guess on regional sales, and assuming the US share of sales remains the exact same (which is probably wrong since it’s been falling over time)

    Wow. My math is on track. ATT announced 3.7M iphones this AM

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 11:23 AM by PEGisTHEkey ]      
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 11:55 AM #38

    Quick and dirty estimate based on tidbits of info:

    Looks like domestic is down 15% QoQ based on VZ and T results.  Assume Sprint follows suit and we have 7.7M domestic iPhones.

    Gene Munster and Horace Dediou presentation says 7M in China last Q and 10M this Q.  This is assumed to be accurate.  This means US domestic and China sold 7+9=16M last Q.

    Last Q was 35.1M with 2.5M channel fill. Excluding channel fill we have 32.6M sold.  Subtract China and domestic from that and we get 32.6-16=16.6 sold in the rest of the world. 

    Multiply 16.6X(1-0.15)=14.1 and get rest of world, including Europe (3rd Q of sales same decline rate as US).

    China + US Domestic + Rest of World = 10+7.7+14.1=31.8M.  Taking 2.5M out for channel fill to re-distributors may be conservative, causing this number to exceed 32M.

    Without showing my upgraded analysis for iPad, I estimate 21.67M iPads.  Could be an awesome quarter if “tidbits of info” are accurate.  wink

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 12:14 PM #39

    orneryjeff - 24 July 2012 02:55 PM

    Looks like domestic is down 15% QoQ based on VZ and T results.  Assume Sprint follows suit and we have 7.7M domestic iPhones.

    Don’t forget iPhone launched on 9 regional carriers in the US this quarter.  I think that puts us over 8M domestic.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 12:48 PM #40

    I am optimistic on both top and bottom line.  grin

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 01:20 PM #41

    Love your math !

    Lets be slightly more conservative for Europe in the face of Galaxy SIII and an awful macroeconomic picture there.  Lets then say 30-31 million to be sure. 

    Ipad estimates of 20 million also seem a bit high given the lack of Chinese access until only recently.  By the way, how many days of Chinese IPAD sales will go into this earnings report, if any ? 

    What is our estimated average gross margin on ipads ?  If I remember well it was around 40%...

    Don’t forget to add in the incremental income from the new Macbook refresh as well.

    Lets put this all together and see what we get for EPS

    orneryjeff - 24 July 2012 02:55 PM

    Quick and dirty estimate based on tidbits of info:

    Looks like domestic is down 15% QoQ based on VZ and T results.  Assume Sprint follows suit and we have 7.7M domestic iPhones.

    Gene Munster and Horace Dediou presentation says 7M in China last Q and 10M this Q.  This is assumed to be accurate.  This means US domestic and China sold 7+9=16M last Q.

    Last Q was 35.1M with 2.5M channel fill. Excluding channel fill we have 32.6M sold.  Subtract China and domestic from that and we get 32.6-16=16.6 sold in the rest of the world. 

    Multiply 16.6X(1-0.15)=14.1 and get rest of world, including Europe (3rd Q of sales same decline rate as US).

    China + US Domestic + Rest of World = 10+7.7+14.1=31.8M.  Taking 2.5M out for channel fill to re-distributors may be conservative, causing this number to exceed 32M.

    Without showing my upgraded analysis for iPad, I estimate 21.67M iPads.  Could be an awesome quarter if “tidbits of info” are accurate.  wink

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 02:20 PM #42

    My 31M # is looking better every minute. 

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/24/31m_iphone_sales_projected_after_apples_strong_showing_at_att.html

    On the other hand, if WS is projecting 31M iPhones, I’m probably low.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 02:22 PM #43

    JDSoCal - 20 July 2012 02:10 AM

    Not that I am endorsing his comments (i.e., don’t shoot the messenger), but I do like to hear opposing viewpoints and not keep my head in the sand and only listen to Pollyannas.

    Additionally, if y’all really believe in China’s official GDP numbers, I have Kim Jong-Il’s golf handicap I’d like to sell you.

    I prefer Pollyannas.  :-D

    Seriously, I like to hear credible counter-arguments about the Apple story.  Problem is, they’re not very credible.  LOL

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 02:38 PM #44

    Speaking of Europe, here is a very relevant article about UK iphone sales being down 5%.  I’m more than happy with that #.  Anyone else have any good articles re: Germany, France, etc…

    http://blog.rightmobilephone.co.uk/uk-iphone-sales-slow-as-galaxy-siii-gains-ground/


    Will any of the ipad 3 sales for china be included in this qtr’s report ?

     

     

    PEGisTHEkey - 24 July 2012 04:20 PM

    Love your math !

    Lets be slightly more conservative for Europe in the face of Galaxy SIII and an awful macroeconomic picture there.  Lets then say 30-31 million to be sure. 

    Ipad estimates of 20 million also seem a bit high given the lack of Chinese access until only recently.  By the way, how many days of Chinese IPAD sales will go into this earnings report, if any ? 

    What is our estimated average gross margin on ipads ?  If I remember well it was around 40%...

    Don’t forget to add in the incremental income from the new Macbook refresh as well.

    Lets put this all together and see what we get for EPS

    orneryjeff - 24 July 2012 02:55 PM

    Quick and dirty estimate based on tidbits of info:

    Looks like domestic is down 15% QoQ based on VZ and T results.  Assume Sprint follows suit and we have 7.7M domestic iPhones.

    Gene Munster and Horace Dediou presentation says 7M in China last Q and 10M this Q.  This is assumed to be accurate.  This means US domestic and China sold 7+9=16M last Q.

    Last Q was 35.1M with 2.5M channel fill. Excluding channel fill we have 32.6M sold.  Subtract China and domestic from that and we get 32.6-16=16.6 sold in the rest of the world. 

    Multiply 16.6X(1-0.15)=14.1 and get rest of world, including Europe (3rd Q of sales same decline rate as US).

    China + US Domestic + Rest of World = 10+7.7+14.1=31.8M.  Taking 2.5M out for channel fill to re-distributors may be conservative, causing this number to exceed 32M.

    Without showing my upgraded analysis for iPad, I estimate 21.67M iPads.  Could be an awesome quarter if “tidbits of info” are accurate.  wink

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 02:49 PM #45

    Tetrachloride - 19 July 2012 03:22 PM

    Thx for the spreadsheet.    Anybody else have iPhone sales dissection insight or even wags ?

    http://www.cultofmac.com/166506/apples-iphone-clobbers-samsung-in-japan/

    Wasn’t aware that apple was still adding carriers in Japan.  Wonder how big the new Japan carrier is?