How many iPhones did apple sell in Q3?

• PEGisTHEkey

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  Posted: 24 July 2012 03:11 PM #46

  Adding to India as well, just this month.  Wonder how much of an addressable market was introduced to the iphone this past quarter. 

  http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/20/indias_aircel_carrier_begins_selling_iphone_3gs_with_annual_data_plan_for_236.html

  PEGisTHEkey - 24 July 2012 05:49 PM

  Tetrachloride - 19 July 2012 03:22 PM

  Thx for the spreadsheet.    Anybody else have iPhone sales dissection insight or even wags ?

  http://www.cultofmac.com/166506/apples-iphone-clobbers-samsung-in-japan/

  Wasn’t aware that apple was still adding carriers in Japan.  Wonder how big the new Japan carrier is?

       

• PEGisTHEkey

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  • Member Since: 2012-07-24
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  Posted: 24 July 2012 10:33 PM #47

  Wow, tried my hardest to nail down European Iphone sales estimates prior to the call.  Had hope we’d be in the clear with this little UK report, so went ahead with a very bullish position…..  Slam

  Try again next time

  PEGisTHEkey - 24 July 2012 05:38 PM

  Speaking of Europe, here is a very relevant article about UK iphone sales being down 5%.  I’m more than happy with that #.  Anyone else have any good articles re: Germany, France, etc…

  http://blog.rightmobilephone.co.uk/uk-iphone-sales-slow-as-galaxy-siii-gains-ground/

  
  Will any of the ipad 3 sales for china be included in this qtr’s report ?

   

   

  PEGisTHEkey - 24 July 2012 04:20 PM

  Love your math !

  Lets be slightly more conservative for Europe in the face of Galaxy SIII and an awful macroeconomic picture there.  Lets then say 30-31 million to be sure. 

  Ipad estimates of 20 million also seem a bit high given the lack of Chinese access until only recently.  By the way, how many days of Chinese IPAD sales will go into this earnings report, if any ? 

  What is our estimated average gross margin on ipads ?  If I remember well it was around 40%...

  Don’t forget to add in the incremental income from the new Macbook refresh as well.

  Lets put this all together and see what we get for EPS

  orneryjeff - 24 July 2012 02:55 PM

  Quick and dirty estimate based on tidbits of info:

  Looks like domestic is down 15% QoQ based on VZ and T results.  Assume Sprint follows suit and we have 7.7M domestic iPhones.

  Gene Munster and Horace Dediou presentation says 7M in China last Q and 10M this Q.  This is assumed to be accurate.  This means US domestic and China sold 7+9=16M last Q.

  Last Q was 35.1M with 2.5M channel fill. Excluding channel fill we have 32.6M sold.  Subtract China and domestic from that and we get 32.6-16=16.6 sold in the rest of the world. 

  Multiply 16.6X(1-0.15)=14.1 and get rest of world, including Europe (3rd Q of sales same decline rate as US).

  China + US Domestic + Rest of World = 10+7.7+14.1=31.8M.  Taking 2.5M out for channel fill to re-distributors may be conservative, causing this number to exceed 32M.

  Without showing my upgraded analysis for iPad, I estimate 21.67M iPads.  Could be an awesome quarter if “tidbits of info” are accurate.