AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 02 July 2012 01:36 AM #16

    Things may be falling into place for our favorite stock. smile

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 02 July 2012 01:42 AM #17

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-settles-china-ipad-trademark-033727087.html

    http://9to5mac.com/2012/07/01/apple-settles-ipad-name-dispute-in-china-for-60-million/

    I would expect that without any impediments to iPad sales in China, Apple will guide more aggressively for the September quarter than I was originally factoring.

    My original belief was that Apple would guide $10.25-$10.75 for the September quarter with actual results between $15.00 and $16.00.  Used napkin calculations (look out for that mustard smudge) indicate that with the lid off, China iPad sales could increase EPS an additional 40?.

    I think this will have a greater impact on Monday trading than any EU banking plan.  I have an order in to BTO 140 July Wk1 $570/$575 BCSs at $3.60.  This requires AAPL to trade below $580 to get filled.  I don’t know what to think right now, other than I won’t get to sleep in (again) tomorrow morning (markets open at 6:30 AM on the west coast).

    [ Edited: 02 July 2012 01:45 AM by Gregg Thurman ]

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    Posted: 02 July 2012 01:56 AM #18

    I don’t see us moving much tomorrow.

    After big days aapl is moved by profit taking no matter the news.

    We did not move last week after the first favorable ruling regarding the Galaxy.

    Until Android is truly hurt and we see evidence of it, winning legal battles like this don’t mean much.

    The new iPad was not selling in China yet anyway.

         
  • Posted: 02 July 2012 01:57 AM #19

    Mav - 02 July 2012 04:36 AM

    Things may be falling into place for our favorite stock. smile

    I agree.  Patience should be rewarded.  Last year, Apple had a 20% run between June 30 and late July.  Let the fireworks begin…

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:00 AM #20

    omacvi - 02 July 2012 04:56 AM

    I don’t see us moving much tomorrow.

    After big days aapl is moved by profit taking no matter the news.

    We did not move last week after the first favorable ruling regarding the Galaxy.

    Until Android is truly hurt and we see evidence of it, winning legal battles like this don’t mean much.

    The new iPad was not selling in China yet anyway.

    But now it can, without legal impediment.  Thus we can assume Gregg’s revised numbers have a logical basis.

    Apple is clearing the decks nicely…. grin

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:01 AM #21

    Mercel - 02 July 2012 04:57 AM
    Mav - 02 July 2012 04:36 AM

    Things may be falling into place for our favorite stock. smile

    I agree.  Patience should be rewarded.  Last year, Apple had a 20% run between June 30 and late July.  Let the fireworks begin…

    I may add some calls this week.  smile. Just me, of course.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:04 AM #22

    Mav - 02 July 2012 05:01 AM
    Mercel - 02 July 2012 04:57 AM
    Mav - 02 July 2012 04:36 AM

    Things may be falling into place for our favorite stock. smile

    I agree.  Patience should be rewarded.  Last year, Apple had a 20% run between June 30 and late July.  Let the fireworks begin…

    I may add some calls this week.  smile. Just me, of course.

    Unhedged?  You wild devil.  :groucho:

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:08 AM #23

    Mercel - 02 July 2012 04:57 AM
    Mav - 02 July 2012 04:36 AM

    Things may be falling into place for our favorite stock. smile

    I agree.  Patience should be rewarded.  Last year, Apple had a 20% run between June 30 and late July.  Let the fireworks begin…

    Patience with our stock requires 12 months.wink

    I would love a 20% run up like last year.  Every year is different.I don’t see us get much past 630 in three weeks and that will only happen if the market is strong and we obviously get the dividend everyone expected.

    The iPad number will be strong but not over 20 million.  I think they had part issues again this year.

    Next quarter they will get over 20 million.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:09 AM #24

    From Bloomberg…..note the last paragraph on Samsung

    Asian stocks headed for their longest winning streak since March and credit risk fell as manufacturing indicators in Japan and China beat forecasts and European leaders agreed on measures to ease the debt crisis. The euro weakened and oil declined after rallying last week.
    The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index added 0.4 percent in its fourth day of gains as of 1:37 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor?s 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent. The euro dropped against most of its major peers after gaining 1.8 percent against the dollar June 29. Oil in New York sank 1.4 percent to $83.81 a barrel after surging the most in three years. Corn in Chicago rose to the highest since September. The Markit iTraxx indexes tracking credit-default swaps for Asia ex-Japan, Japan and Australia all fell.
    Japan?s Tankan index of large manufacturers? sentiment and China?s Purchasing Managers? Index exceeded economist estimates, while a reading today may show factory activity in the euro zone contracted for an 11th month. Equities rallied the most this year on June 29 as European leaders reduced aid requirements for Spain and Italy. Stocks rose the most in June since 1999 and more in the first-half than the dollar, bonds and commodities.
    ?We have been adding risk,? Hugh Young, who helps manage $70 billion in Asian equities at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Singapore, said. ?Nobody?s overly optimistic about economic growth but they are realistic. We are bumping along the bottom and this is quite healthy given where we?ve been.?
    Less Pessimistic
    Japan?s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average rose 0.3 percent and the Topix Index was up 0.2 percent. The nation?s quarterly Tankan index was minus 1 in June from minus 4 in March, the central bank said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected a reading of minus 4, and a negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists.
    South Korea?s Kospi index increased 0.2 percent after data yesterday showed exports growth in June snapped three months of declines. Australia?s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1 percent. China?s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1 percent after falling earlier, with more than three stocks gaining for every one that fell. The Hong Kong market is closed today for a holiday.
    China?s PMI fell to 50.2 in June from 50.4 in May, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported yesterday. That compares with the 49.9 median estimate in survey of 24 economists. A final PMI reading for June by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today was better than a preliminary level published last month.
    Galaxy Blocked
    BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world?s largest mining company, climbed 1.2 percent in Australia after commodity prices rallied last week. Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), the world?s top handset maker, fell as much as 2.4 percent in Seoul, the biggest decline in a week, after Apple Inc. won a court ruling blocking sales of the Galaxy Nexus smartphone in the U.S. The stock had the biggest negative impact on the MSCI Asia Pacific index.

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  • Posted: 02 July 2012 02:13 AM #25

    My magic eight ball (ran out of coins) says tomorrow is going to be very good. Our best contra indicator (won’t name him here for fear of the ignore button:) is bearish too so I’m putting a lot of stock in my 8 ball’s prediction.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:17 AM #26

    Once again.  These lawsuits don’t give Apple extra cash.

    Winning them two years after the damage has been done now makes them simply about fairness.

    Samsung can’t afford not to sell an extra tablet or phone.  Losing to Apple after cheating for so long will rattle investors.  Let’s give it three more years when we have their latest items banned or Android becomes so full of legal issues Google will be forced to change it radically and charge money for it.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:21 AM #27

    They do if the Galaxy S III is next in Apple’s sights.  Just a comment, I don’t know how similar the Galaxy Nexus is to the S III in terms of Apple’s next legal moves.

    I see the Proview settlement lifting a cloud from the stock.

    And Red, calls used to be 100% of my trading.  These days, they aren’t looking too bad in the proper doses, for my particular kind of trading.  If I’m playing shorter-term, it’ll probably be BCSes at least until near earnings, when I’m near my most stupid.  And legging in is a powerful, if tricky, mitigation strategy.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:29 AM #28

    Mav - 02 July 2012 05:21 AM

    They do if the Galaxy S III is next in Apple’s sights.  Just a comment, I don’t know how similar the Galaxy Nexus is to the S III in terms of Apple’s next legal moves.

    I see the Proview settlement lifting a cloud from the stock.

    And Red, calls used to be 100% of my trading.  These days, they aren’t looking too bad in the proper doses, for my particular kind of trading.  If I’m playing shorter-term, it’ll probably be BCSes at least until near earnings, when I’m near my most stupid.  And legging in is a powerful, if tricky, mitigation strategy.

    The galaxy III concerns me.  I think this time Samsung beat Apple to the market with a similar design.  It will be hard to sue on looks.  However it is the operating system and multi touch patents they are after and I think Appke has plenty of ammo for those.

    And for the record I think we will be red tomorrow.

         
  • Posted: 02 July 2012 02:45 AM #29

    Red Shirted Ensign - 02 July 2012 05:00 AM
    omacvi - 02 July 2012 04:56 AM

    I don’t see us moving much tomorrow.

    After big days aapl is moved by profit taking no matter the news.

    We did not move last week after the first favorable ruling regarding the Galaxy.

    Until Android is truly hurt and we see evidence of it, winning legal battles like this don’t mean much.

    The new iPad was not selling in China yet anyway.

    But now it can, without legal impediment.  Thus we can assume Gregg’s revised numbers have a logical basis.

    Apple is clearing the decks nicely…. grin

    Thanks Red.  Investors buy the future, not the past.

    Samsung has been shackled to some unknown degree, and China has been opened to iPad sales.  Those are two pretty significant catalysts for future sales/revenue/earnings.  Plug your favorite multiple into the increased earnings and you have a higher price for AAPL.

    Apple has already announced a major increase in cap/ex for this year.  Could that be in anticipation of favorable decisions against Proview and Samsung?  I think it is that and the declining relevance of RIMM, Nokia, HTC, Sony, Motorola and MSFT in the smartphone/tablet market.

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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:53 AM #30

    omacvi - 02 July 2012 04:56 AM

    I don’t see us moving much tomorrow.

    After big days aapl is moved by profit taking no matter the news.

    We did not move last week after the first favorable ruling regarding the Galaxy.

    Until Android is truly hurt and we see evidence of it, winning legal battles like this don’t mean much.

    The new iPad was not selling in China yet anyway.

    Injunctions on Samsung smartphones will have a real impact on US iPhone marketshare in the coming quarter.

    The galaxy nexus was in the top 3 selling smartphones on Verizon for at least the last 4 months, and Samsung is the only other manufacturer other than apple that features in the top 3 smartphones on Sprint & AT&T (see the link below).

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