How long until the next ATH?

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    Posted: 01 July 2012 10:58 PM

    Using the Adjusted Closing price for AAPL from the Yahoo Finance page, I took a look at the long dry spells between instances of AAPL setting all time highs. The following shows the trading days between ATHs since AAPL set it?s most recent all time low (since the financial disruption of 2007-2009) of $78.20 on January 20, 2009.

    April 9, 2012     -    Present           59 trading days and counting
    Oct. 19, 2011   -    Jan. 6, 2012       55 trading days
    July 27, 2011   -    Sept. 16, 2011   37 trading days
    Feb. 17, 2011   -    July 15, 2011   103 trading days
    Aug. 5, 2010     -    Sept. 9, 2010     25 trading days
    June 21, 2010   -    Aug. 2, 2010     30 trading days
    Apr. 26, 2010   -    June 17, 2010     38 trading days
    Jan. 20, 2010   -    Mar. 4, 2010       31 trading days
    Nov. 18, 2009   -    Dec. 24, 2009     26 trading days
    June 8, 2009   -    July 15, 2009     27 trading days
    Feb. 10, 2009   -    Mar. 23, 2009     29 trading days

    Pick the date?

    I think we will beat (lose?) the ATD (all time drought) of Feb-July 2011, setting our next ATH during the run-up to October earnings release. October 20, 2012.  :(

         
  • Posted: 01 July 2012 11:09 PM #1

    We are going to see a huge run when 20M+ iPads are announced for the quarter. we will be at an all time high before this run starts.

         
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    Posted: 01 July 2012 11:23 PM #2

    I did not realize it has been that long.

    I am still thinking we will have to wait until Sept.

    I say end of Sept.

         
  • Posted: 01 July 2012 11:33 PM #3

    Reposting this here from the weekend thread as it’s pretty topical, my timing was poor as I posted right before iPad created the new weekly thread.  I’m thinking September, but as AT said, a huge quarter for iPad & Macs could see some movement this Summer.

    I’m sure this hasn’t escaped the notice of many of you, but our stock seems to move based on fairly consistent periods of consolidation—I tried to illustrate here (there’s some rounding so in some cases the highlighted periods of consolidation aren’t a full 6 months):

    If this trend holds true, it seems that we could see the current period of consolidation complete around mid-Aug or mid-Sept and staircase toward the next plateau?

    [ Edited: 01 July 2012 11:37 PM by Jordan D ]      
  • Posted: 02 July 2012 12:05 AM #4

    I don’t care about Macs. I don’t care about iPhone this Q. I only care about iPad being over 20M units. Will really open some eyes when it happens. People will realize this market is much bigger and growing much faster than current industry estimates. This will be huge for AAPL. Nothing else this Q will matter much.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 12:25 AM #5

    Jordan D - 02 July 2012 02:33 AM

    Reposting this here from the weekend thread as it’s pretty topical, my timing was poor as I posted right before iPad created the new weekly thread.  I’m thinking September, but as AT said, a huge quarter for iPad & Macs could see some movement this Summer.

    Thanks for moving. Nice graph btw.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 12:46 AM #6

    Jordan D - 02 July 2012 02:33 AM

    Reposting this here from the weekend thread as it’s pretty topical, my timing was poor as I posted right before iPad created the new weekly thread.  I’m thinking September, but as AT said, a huge quarter for iPad & Macs could see some movement this Summer.

    I’m sure this hasn’t escaped the notice of many of you, but our stock seems to move based on fairly consistent periods of consolidation—I tried to illustrate here (there’s some rounding so in some cases the highlighted periods of consolidation aren’t a full 6 months):

    If this trend holds true, it seems that we could see the current period of consolidation complete around mid-Aug or mid-Sept and staircase toward the next plateau?

    Historical patterns are interesting but NOT predictive. Aapl will move in the way that most baffles the most.

    Sorry, no ATH date prediction from me. Too many aapl/market variables to account for. Good luck to all near/mid term players. NO luck is needed for long term players!  LOL

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 01:13 AM #7

    2 weeks. :D

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:01 AM #8

    lovemyipad - 02 July 2012 04:13 AM

    2 weeks. :D

    Really?

    You have become downright exuberant lately….....

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:12 AM #9

    Red Shirted Ensign - 02 July 2012 05:01 AM
    lovemyipad - 02 July 2012 04:13 AM

    2 weeks. :D

    Really?

    You have become downright exuberant lately….....

    She loves us all.

    I think she is on drugs:)

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 02:23 AM #10

    Someone has to nominate that as a quote

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 02 July 2012 03:00 AM #11

    Wile E. Coyote - 02 July 2012 01:58 AM

    Pick the date?

    July 25, 2012 at 10:23 AM EST   LOL

    “It’s the Guidance, Stupid”?

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 03:43 AM #12

    I’ll use Gregg’s date, but 110 minutes earlier or so.

         
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    Posted: 02 July 2012 06:58 AM #13

    omacvi - 02 July 2012 05:12 AM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 02 July 2012 05:01 AM
    lovemyipad - 02 July 2012 04:13 AM

    2 weeks. :D

    Really?

    You have become downright exuberant lately….....

    She loves us all.

    I think she is on drugs:)

    ROFLMAO!!!  Priceless, Spongie! smile

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2012 04:22 AM #14

    Gregg Thurman - 02 July 2012 06:00 AM
    Wile E. Coyote - 02 July 2012 01:58 AM

    Pick the date?

    July 25, 2012 at 10:23 AM EST   LOL

    “It’s the Guidance, Stupid”?

    If we are talking about when will AAPL next TRADE above 644, I think a logical bet is after hours on July 24.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2012 05:10 AM #15

    I will side with lovemyipad on this one, and call it two weeks.  I’m pretty certain we can reach $620+ before OE, since we were already there back in April.  It seems to me like we’re at the bottom of a multi-month AAPL rally, topping out somewhere in 1Q2013 in the $700+ range, based on new iPhone and potentially a new product line (Apple iTV?). From current price, that’s only a ~20% move, on a company that’s still generating boatloads of cash, and whose market share gets even stronger every quarter.

    Although most of my position (over 90%) is on JAN13s, I’ve already started to sell a few JAN14 960/950s for ~10x.  If AAPL keeps it up, and competitors keep missing the boat, $1,000 in 18 months will seem ridiculously cheap.  Getting close to 7 digits, and might get there before the October earnings announcement.