You are here: Home → Forum Home → The Mac Observer Forums → Apple Finance Board → Thread
How long until the next ATH?
-
44 points to go! :D
-
Tomorrow we break into the top 10 all time highs!
-
By the end of next week.
-
Using the Adjusted Closing price for AAPL from the Yahoo Finance page, I took a look at the long dry spells between instances of AAPL setting all time highs. The following shows the trading days between ATHs since AAPL set it?s most recent all time low (since the financial disruption of 2007-2009) of $78.20 on January 20, 2009.
April 9, 2012 - Present 59 trading days and counting
Oct. 19, 2011 - Jan. 6, 2012 55 trading days
July 27, 2011 - Sept. 16, 2011 37 trading days
Feb. 17, 2011 - July 15, 2011 103 trading days
Aug. 5, 2010 - Sept. 9, 2010 25 trading days
June 21, 2010 - Aug. 2, 2010 30 trading days
Apr. 26, 2010 - June 17, 2010 38 trading days
Jan. 20, 2010 - Mar. 4, 2010 31 trading days
Nov. 18, 2009 - Dec. 24, 2009 26 trading days
June 8, 2009 - July 15, 2009 27 trading days
Feb. 10, 2009 - Mar. 23, 2009 29 trading daysPick the date?
I think we will beat (lose?) the ATD (all time drought) of Feb-July 2011, setting our next ATH during the run-up to October earnings release. October 20, 2012. :(
Well that particular drought is over. I know it’s not the 644 that we are all waiting for, but we just set the ATH as defined by closing price. It ended up being 91 trading days. Wow. If we use the Wheel of Fortune method of picking the date without going over it looks like our winner is that seer of extraordinary ability, the Spongester. There were several folks picking the date of last earnings report which as I recall was July 24-ish. So it is pretty close between those estimates and sponge’s guess of “september.”
On second thought, I think Gregg was closest with July 25, 2012. Either way, I’m glad this particular contest ended.
[ Edited: 17 August 2012 08:48 AM by Wile E. Coyote ] -
By the end of next week.
Ha! Nice try past me.
-
Gregg Thurman
- [ Ignore ]
On second thought, I think Gregg was closest with July 25, 2012.
haha I KNEW is would happen in this quarter. I just didn’t see it happening in the manner it did.
We have ISM expansion (over FQ3) today. Next iPhone expectation has to be through the roof. Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?
Signature
You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.
-
15 multiple. Priced for disappointment?
“Nnnnno.” (/SJ)
Pullback, trying to look out for that. Retesting 600? Unlikely.
There is an upside to going higher. The retrace points under 100% move up too even as the potential drop in points from the top increases.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Gregg Thurman
- [ Ignore ]
15 multiple. Priced for disappointment?
“Nnnnno.” (/SJ)
Pullback, trying to look out for that. Retesting 600? Unlikely.
There is an upside to going higher. The retrace points under 100% move up too even as the potential drop in points from the top increases.
AAPL activity since July earnings has been utterly STRANGE. The August trading pattern for the prior three years was collectively negative. It didn’t matter if Apple missed or beat numbers, subsequent trading was downhill. Many like to call it the summer doldrums.
But Apple misses big time this past July, and the stock does anything but decline. Why? The popular notion is that AAPL’s recent rise is attributable to iPhone 5 anticipation. That’s a seductive thought, but I think its wrong.
AAPL surged today well above its 52 week high at about the same time that the Apple vs Samsung trial took the weekend off. I’m of the belief that the market (look at today’s volume) isn’t focused on the new iPhone near as much as it is on the trial. I think the rally, which began July 30 is all about the trial’s outcome, which the market is now believing (firmly) that Apple is going to prevail.
Prevailing means that any firm that wishes to challenge Apple, using Apple IP, is slated for the boneyard. It is very clear now, that at most there will be 3 major handset manufacturers and 1 tablet manufacturer. Apple is going to dominate both industries for some time. When I say dominate I mean dominate handsets the way Nokia/RIMM did, when I say tablets I mean the way MSFT dominated the desktop.
Given that Apple has established a reputation of entering/creating markets, then dominating, the market feels Apple is poised to continue growing 30+% per annum for quite some time.
Watch the oxygen being sucked out of competing technology firm’s equities over the next 5 years.
Signature
You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.
-
2 weeks. :D
Really?
You have become downright exuberant lately….....
My timing was off by a month. :D
-
15 multiple. Priced for disappointment?
“Nnnnno.” (/SJ)
Pullback, trying to look out for that. Retesting 600? Unlikely.
There is an upside to going higher. The retrace points under 100% move up too even as the potential drop in points from the top increases.
AAPL activity since July earnings has been utterly STRANGE. The August trading pattern for the prior three years was collectively negative. It didn’t matter if Apple missed or beat numbers, subsequent trading was downhill. Many like to call it the summer doldrums.
But Apple misses big time this past July, and the stock does anything but decline. Why? The popular notion is that AAPL’s recent rise is attributable to iPhone 5 anticipation. That’s a seductive thought, but I think its wrong.
AAPL surged today well above its 52 week high at about the same time that the Apple vs Samsung trial took the weekend off. I’m of the belief that the market (look at today’s volume) isn’t focused on the new iPhone near as much as it is on the trial. I think the rally, which began July 30 is all about the trial’s outcome, which the market is now believing (firmly) that Apple is going to prevail.
Prevailing means that any firm that wishes to challenge Apple, using Apple IP, is slated for the boneyard. It is very clear now, that at most there will be 3 major handset manufacturers and 1 tablet manufacturer. Apple is going to dominate both industries for some time. When I say dominate I mean dominate handsets the way Nokia/RIMM did, when I say tablets I mean the way MSFT dominated the desktop.
Given that Apple has established a reputation of entering/creating markets, then dominating, the market feels Apple is poised to continue growing 30+% per annum for quite some time.
Watch the oxygen being sucked out of competing technology firm’s equities over the next 5 years.
I actually don’t think it is that strange, and I don’t think the trial is the answer either. I believe that the so called miss in July removed one last psychological barrier to owning the stock. Many people believed that the incredible growth rates we have seen over the past few years could not continue. This led to fear about owning the stock when that growth streak finally ended. There was a large unknown about how bad the stock would react in the aftermath of a miss, when the inevitable finally happened, which it did in July.
Well the reaction was muted, but now the overhang was removed. This allows everyone to focus on all the positives that the rest of us understand. I believe we saw a similar psychological relief with Steve’s passing, as perverse as that sounds. Now all investors can simply compare Apple to every other company in the world, without that lingering fear causing them to stay away from the stock.
I have no empirical evidence about any of this, but this is how I felt right after the miss.
-
Big Money buys weakness and sells strength over and over and over…
-
Big Money buys weakness and sells strength over and over and over…
So is big money running to the sidelines? Profit taking?
-
Big Money buys weakness and sells strength over and over and over…
So is big money running to the sidelines? Profit taking?
When they start taking profits, we’ll know it. Prices will go down.
-
You better warn us, Fearless Leader & EO Watcher! :D
Lstream, when Apple reported one of the worst quarters it would ever report, investors thought…
“...oh. 20% YOY growth.
Oh. Apple is trading at an under 15 multiple. I guess 570 is as low as we go for now.
Oh hey! iPhone in September! And iPad mini rumors!”
...and then AAPL hit a new ATH.
Apple’s worst is still plenty great, and investors are starting to get the hang of Apple seasonality for now, meaning they’re increasingly aware that Apple’s “bad” quarters will be remedied by much better quarters in fiscal Q1 and Q2 around the bend.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve.
