How long until the next ATH?

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    Posted: 03 July 2012 09:24 PM #16

    44 points to go! :D

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 11:40 PM #17

    Tomorrow we break into the top 10 all time highs!  smile

    http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2012 11:47 PM #18

    By the end of next week.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 08:41 AM #19

    Wile E. Coyote - 02 July 2012 01:58 AM

    Using the Adjusted Closing price for AAPL from the Yahoo Finance page, I took a look at the long dry spells between instances of AAPL setting all time highs. The following shows the trading days between ATHs since AAPL set it?s most recent all time low (since the financial disruption of 2007-2009) of $78.20 on January 20, 2009.

    April 9, 2012     -    Present           59 trading days and counting
    Oct. 19, 2011   -    Jan. 6, 2012       55 trading days
    July 27, 2011   -    Sept. 16, 2011   37 trading days
    Feb. 17, 2011   -    July 15, 2011   103 trading days
    Aug. 5, 2010     -    Sept. 9, 2010     25 trading days
    June 21, 2010   -    Aug. 2, 2010     30 trading days
    Apr. 26, 2010   -    June 17, 2010     38 trading days
    Jan. 20, 2010   -    Mar. 4, 2010       31 trading days
    Nov. 18, 2009   -    Dec. 24, 2009     26 trading days
    June 8, 2009   -    July 15, 2009     27 trading days
    Feb. 10, 2009   -    Mar. 23, 2009     29 trading days

    Pick the date?

    I think we will beat (lose?) the ATD (all time drought) of Feb-July 2011, setting our next ATH during the run-up to October earnings release. October 20, 2012.  :(

    Well that particular drought is over. I know it’s not the 644 that we are all waiting for, but we just set the ATH as defined by closing price. It ended up being 91 trading days. Wow. If we use the Wheel of Fortune method of picking the date without going over it looks like our winner is that seer of extraordinary ability, the Spongester. There were several folks picking the date of last earnings report which as I recall was July 24-ish. So it is pretty close between those estimates and sponge’s guess of “september.”

    On second thought, I think Gregg was closest with July 25, 2012. Either way, I’m glad this particular contest ended. smile

    [ Edited: 17 August 2012 08:48 AM by Wile E. Coyote ]      
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 09:16 AM #20

    AppleDoc - 10 July 2012 02:47 AM

    By the end of next week.

    Ha! Nice try past me.

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 11:12 AM #21

    Wile E. Coyote - 17 August 2012 11:41 AM

    On second thought, I think Gregg was closest with July 25, 2012.

    haha I KNEW is would happen in this quarter.  I just didn’t see it happening in the manner it did.  LOL

    We have ISM expansion (over FQ3) today.  Next iPhone expectation has to be through the roof.  Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 03:00 PM #22

    15 multiple.  Priced for disappointment?

    “Nnnnno.” (/SJ)

    Pullback, trying to look out for that.  Retesting 600?  Unlikely. 

    There is an upside to going higher.  The retrace points under 100% move up too even as the potential drop in points from the top increases.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 06:07 PM #23

    Mav - 17 August 2012 06:00 PM

    15 multiple.  Priced for disappointment?

    “Nnnnno.” (/SJ)

    Pullback, trying to look out for that.  Retesting 600?  Unlikely. 

    There is an upside to going higher.  The retrace points under 100% move up too even as the potential drop in points from the top increases.

    AAPL activity since July earnings has been utterly STRANGE.  The August trading pattern for the prior three years was collectively negative.  It didn’t matter if Apple missed or beat numbers, subsequent trading was downhill.  Many like to call it the summer doldrums.

    But Apple misses big time this past July, and the stock does anything but decline.  Why?  The popular notion is that AAPL’s recent rise is attributable to iPhone 5 anticipation.  That’s a seductive thought, but I think its wrong.

    AAPL surged today well above its 52 week high at about the same time that the Apple vs Samsung trial took the weekend off.  I’m of the belief that the market (look at today’s volume) isn’t focused on the new iPhone near as much as it is on the trial.  I think the rally, which began July 30 is all about the trial’s outcome, which the market is now believing (firmly) that Apple is going to prevail.

    Prevailing means that any firm that wishes to challenge Apple, using Apple IP, is slated for the boneyard.  It is very clear now, that at most there will be 3 major handset manufacturers and 1 tablet manufacturer.  Apple is going to dominate both industries for some time.  When I say dominate I mean dominate handsets the way Nokia/RIMM did, when I say tablets I mean the way MSFT dominated the desktop.

    Given that Apple has established a reputation of entering/creating markets, then dominating, the market feels Apple is poised to continue growing 30+% per annum for quite some time.

    Watch the oxygen being sucked out of competing technology firm’s equities over the next 5 years.

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 06:22 PM #24

    Red Shirted Ensign - 02 July 2012 05:01 AM
    lovemyipad - 02 July 2012 04:13 AM

    2 weeks. :D

    Really?

    You have become downright exuberant lately….....

    My timing was off by a month. :D

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 06:43 PM #25

    Gregg Thurman - 17 August 2012 09:07 PM
    Mav - 17 August 2012 06:00 PM

    15 multiple.  Priced for disappointment?

    “Nnnnno.” (/SJ)

    Pullback, trying to look out for that.  Retesting 600?  Unlikely. 

    There is an upside to going higher.  The retrace points under 100% move up too even as the potential drop in points from the top increases.

    AAPL activity since July earnings has been utterly STRANGE.  The August trading pattern for the prior three years was collectively negative.  It didn’t matter if Apple missed or beat numbers, subsequent trading was downhill.  Many like to call it the summer doldrums.

    But Apple misses big time this past July, and the stock does anything but decline.  Why?  The popular notion is that AAPL’s recent rise is attributable to iPhone 5 anticipation.  That’s a seductive thought, but I think its wrong.

    AAPL surged today well above its 52 week high at about the same time that the Apple vs Samsung trial took the weekend off.  I’m of the belief that the market (look at today’s volume) isn’t focused on the new iPhone near as much as it is on the trial.  I think the rally, which began July 30 is all about the trial’s outcome, which the market is now believing (firmly) that Apple is going to prevail.

    Prevailing means that any firm that wishes to challenge Apple, using Apple IP, is slated for the boneyard.  It is very clear now, that at most there will be 3 major handset manufacturers and 1 tablet manufacturer.  Apple is going to dominate both industries for some time.  When I say dominate I mean dominate handsets the way Nokia/RIMM did, when I say tablets I mean the way MSFT dominated the desktop.

    Given that Apple has established a reputation of entering/creating markets, then dominating, the market feels Apple is poised to continue growing 30+% per annum for quite some time.

    Watch the oxygen being sucked out of competing technology firm’s equities over the next 5 years.

    I actually don’t think it is that strange, and I don’t think the trial is the answer either.  I believe that the so called miss in July removed one last psychological barrier to owning the stock.  Many people believed that the incredible growth rates we have seen over the past few years could not continue.  This led to fear about owning the stock when that growth streak finally ended.  There was a large unknown about how bad the stock would react in the aftermath of a miss, when the inevitable finally happened, which it did in July.

    Well the reaction was muted, but now the overhang was removed.  This allows everyone to focus on all the positives that the rest of us understand.  I believe we saw a similar psychological relief with Steve’s passing, as perverse as that sounds.  Now all investors can simply compare Apple to every other company in the world, without that lingering fear causing them to stay away from the stock.

    I have no empirical evidence about any of this, but this is how I felt right after the miss.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 06:48 PM #26

    Big Money buys weakness and sells strength over and over and over…

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:02 PM #27

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 09:48 PM

    Big Money buys weakness and sells strength over and over and over…

    So is big money running to the sidelines?  Profit taking?

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 08:01 PM #28

    aapl4kiki - 17 August 2012 10:02 PM
    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 09:48 PM

    Big Money buys weakness and sells strength over and over and over…

    So is big money running to the sidelines?  Profit taking?

    When they start taking profits, we’ll know it.  Prices will go down.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 09:52 PM #29

    You better warn us, Fearless Leader & EO Watcher! :D

    Lstream, when Apple reported one of the worst quarters it would ever report, investors thought…

    “...oh.  20% YOY growth.

    Oh.  Apple is trading at an under 15 multiple.  I guess 570 is as low as we go for now.

    Oh hey!  iPhone in September!  And iPad mini rumors!”

    ...and then AAPL hit a new ATH.

    Apple’s worst is still plenty great, and investors are starting to get the hang of Apple seasonality for now, meaning they’re increasingly aware that Apple’s “bad” quarters will be remedied by much better quarters in fiscal Q1 and Q2 around the bend.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.