iPhone Launch Month

  • Posted: 03 July 2012 06:25 PM

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/03/winteks_plummeting_sales_hint_at_apples_switch_to_in_cell_iphone_touch_panels.html

    Obviously my June/July launch timeframe did not pan out.

    June:  Vendors begin production for new iPhone components.
    July:  Foxconn begins assembly for process and component testing/QA.
    August:  Production ramp begins.
    September:  New iPhone launch. Typically, Apple likes to launch during latter part (last weekend) of the quarter.

    According to publically available data, and AT&T sources, the December quarter is the best of the calendar year for handset sales.  Could we be looking at a Sept 21, or 28, iPhone launch?

    There will be 13 weeks in this year’s December quarter, unlike last year’s December quarter (14). However, the iPhone 4S did not ship for a full THIRTEEN weeks last years, so I’m expecting significant YoY unit growth this year.

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    Posted: 03 July 2012 06:29 PM #1

    Gregg, didn’t I tell ya?

    Until the trend is otherwise, it’s three letters and a number.

    iOS (number).

    One will not launch without the other.  Hopefully Maps, arguably the most important “can’t screw it up” element of iOS, won’t slow any iOS gold master release down.

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    Posted: 03 July 2012 06:44 PM #2

    If it’s going to be a Sept. third week launch what will Apple guidiance be on July 24th for Q4?

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2012 06:45 PM #3

    I am thinking a Sept launch for the new iPhone. Although I would like to get the sales recorded for the 4th quarter, I am leaning toward Sept 28 for the launch.

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    Posted: 03 July 2012 06:50 PM #4

    Effects of a Sept 20-ish launch day

    1. The bigger the month of December.  Early Adopters take Sept, October.  November rounds up some AWOL early adopters.  December brings out the gift-season buyers

    2. August-September iPhone sales will plummet, unless Apple comes up with a discount program.

    3. Some traders like this predictability.

    4. I think Apple has tried the early September launch day and they didnt like it.  September PR campaign fermentation starts after Labor Day.

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2012 06:59 PM #5

    I am thinking mid to late September launch but I think Pats can tell us pretty closely based on previous years’ numbers of iOS betas. He knows pretty well how that development cycle works.

    This holiday quarter is going to be insane whether some sales hit this quarter or not (September or October launch). Bigger installed base now than last year (roughly double in size) ready for upgrade. Smartphones taking share like crazy from dumbphones on every carrier on the planet. Carrier base expanding in key markets and all over the world. I’m thinking iPhone can double (or close to it) again in fiscal ‘13. Maybe I’m wrong but 50% growth would absolutely shatter all estimates I’ve seen from the WS analysts.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2012 03:22 AM #6

    Infohunter - 03 July 2012 09:44 PM

    If it’s going to be a Sept. third week launch what will Apple guidiance be on July 24th for Q4?

    Using historical change in QoQ iPhone unit sales as a reference, I think Apple is going to guide $10.50 (resulting in actual earnings of $15.30) for the September quarter.

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 03:43 AM #7

    Gregg Thurman - 04 July 2012 06:22 AM
    Infohunter - 03 July 2012 09:44 PM

    If it’s going to be a Sept. third week launch what will Apple guidiance be on July 24th for Q4?

    Using historical change in QoQ iPhone unit sales as a reference, I think Apple is going to guide $10.50 (resulting in actual earnings of $15.30) for the September quarter.

    Wow! If that happens $700 will come and go quickly.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2012 03:53 AM #8

    stkstalker - 03 July 2012 09:45 PM

    I am thinking a Sept launch for the new iPhone. Although I would like to get the sales recorded for the 4th quarter, I am leaning toward Sept 28 for the launch.

    I’m interpreting your “4th quarter” reference as being the December quarter.  December quarter sales volume will be a function of how fast Apple can ramp production.  If Apple is able to go live in late September (28th?), ramp will actually be ahead of last year (93 days of sales in 2012 vs 79 days of sales in 2011).  Just the average daily sales rate of the December quarter of 2011 puts us at 43.6 million units for the December quarter of 2012.  If the rate goes up I would install extra seat belts on your desk chair.

    Increasing December quarter sales will be Apple’s goal, so launching on the 28th makes more sense, as it gives Apple an extra 7 days to stockpile pre-launch (think of all last year’s backlog that was filled in January).  Currently I’m forecasting 45 million iPhones in the December quarter, which, in reality, is a 4.7% YoY increase in the average daily run rate, but will appear as a 22% YoY increase in unit sales for the quarter.  If historical December quarter QoQ growth rates prevail, we could see 58 million iPhones in the December quarter.  I’m struggling with that number.

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 03:59 AM #9

    Tetrachloride - 03 July 2012 09:50 PM

    Effects of a Sept 20-ish launch day

    2. August-September iPhone sales will plummet, unless Apple comes up with a discount program.

    Yes and no.  Unit growth rate will plummet with unit sales not quite reaching December quarter levels.

    4. I think Apple has tried the early September launch day and they didnt like it.  September PR campaign fermentation starts after Labor Day.

    Apple has never launched the iPhone in September.  Past launch months were June, July and October.

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 04:01 AM #10

    adamthompson32 - 03 July 2012 09:59 PM

    This holiday quarter is going to be insane whether some sales hit this quarter or not (September or October launch). Bigger installed base now than last year (roughly double in size) ready for upgrade. Smartphones taking share like crazy from dumbphones on every carrier on the planet. Carrier base expanding in key markets and all over the world. I’m thinking iPhone can double (or close to it) again in fiscal ‘13. Maybe I’m wrong but 50% growth would absolutely shatter all estimates I’ve seen from the WS analysts.

    Historical QoQ unit sales growth rate puts iPhone units at ~53 million.

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 04:03 AM #11

    adamthompson32 - 04 July 2012 06:43 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 04 July 2012 06:22 AM
    Infohunter - 03 July 2012 09:44 PM

    If it’s going to be a Sept. third week launch what will Apple guidiance be on July 24th for Q4?

    Using historical change in QoQ iPhone unit sales as a reference, I think Apple is going to guide $10.50 (resulting in actual earnings of $15.30) for the September quarter.

    Wow! If that happens $700 will come and go quickly.

    If that happens AAPL will blow right past $800.

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 04:13 AM #12

    Gregg Thurman - 04 July 2012 07:01 AM
    adamthompson32 - 03 July 2012 09:59 PM

    This holiday quarter is going to be insane whether some sales hit this quarter or not (September or October launch). Bigger installed base now than last year (roughly double in size) ready for upgrade. Smartphones taking share like crazy from dumbphones on every carrier on the planet. Carrier base expanding in key markets and all over the world. I’m thinking iPhone can double (or close to it) again in fiscal ‘13. Maybe I’m wrong but 50% growth would absolutely shatter all estimates I’ve seen from the WS analysts.

    Historical QoQ unit sales growth rate puts iPhone units at ~53 million.

    I put little to no stock in historical QoQ growth rates now that the launch window has shifted and we don’t have much history with it. We also have carrier base expansion and overall market growth to deal with.

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 04:59 AM #13

    I think that they will launch it in mid-late September. Maybe on Sep. 21st with an announcement on Sep. 12th?

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