You are here: Home → Forum Home → The Mac Observer Forums → Apple Finance Board → Thread
AAPL Fiscal Q3 2012 Early Estimates
-
Whenever you’re ready…
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Here’s my very early ballpark estimate from April 24th:
So now we have some guidance & Q2 performance known, what are the early ballpark predictions for Q3?
Working from 43.50% GM (2% higher than guidance), iPad growth, and iPhone shrinkage (clearing the channel before iPhone 5 in Q4):
20 million ipads
28 million iphones
5.5 million macs
7 million ipodsEPS $12.00
I’m tempted to stick with that, even though I have a feeling I’m way low on iPads.
Signature
Full Disclosure:
- Long Apple
- Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics -
adamthompson32
- [ Ignore ]
Here’s my very early ballpark estimate from April 24th:
So now we have some guidance & Q2 performance known, what are the early ballpark predictions for Q3?
Working from 43.50% GM (2% higher than guidance), iPad growth, and iPhone shrinkage (clearing the channel before iPhone 5 in Q4):
20 million ipads
28 million iphones
5.5 million macs
7 million ipodsEPS $12.00
I’m tempted to stick with that, even though I have a feeling I’m way low on iPads.
Exceptionally low gross margin beat in relation to historical beats.
-
I stand at:
32.1M iPhones
19.9M iPads
4.72M Macs
6.15M iPods (like those even matter anymore
)$41.98B revs, $12.27 EPS, GM 44.5%. Seems a little high on revs, a little conservative in some areas such as GM, but it’s a bit of EPS insurance against a lower-than-expected iPhone number I guess.
[ Edited: 04 July 2012 01:23 PM by Mav ]Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
What is your share count?
Signature
-
947M
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
FY2012 Q3 July 3, 2010
__ Units ASP Revenue
Mac 4600 1288 5925
iPod 6200 155 961
iPhone 30900 642 19838
iPad 19500 562 10959
iTunes 2000
Peripherals 600
Software 700
Total 40983Gross Revenue 40983
COGS 22336
Gross Income 18647
GM 45.5 %
OpEx 3210
Operating Income 15437
OI & E 160
PreTax 15597
Taxes 3946 (25.3 %)
Net 11651
Shares 947
EPS $ 12.30Transcribed from spreadsheet.
-
947M
Thanks. I am using 948 million.
Real close to you on units, lower on revenues, 44.75% GM, EPS $12.05
[ Edited: 04 July 2012 01:27 PM by roni ]Signature
-
iPhone 33.5M
iPad 21.4M
Mac 4.7
iPod 6.5M
GM 44.5%
Rev 42,459,000 (cribbed ASP from Tetra)
EPS 12.94 (thanks Chas)Added Rev
[ Edited: 04 July 2012 02:18 PM by stkstalker ]Signature
Striving to exceed the needs of the future.
-
Need a revs number along with EPS for those estimates, people. Thanks!
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
iPhone 33.5M
iPad 21.4M
Mac 4.7
iPod 6.5M
GM 44.5%
Rev 42,459,000 (cribbed ASP from Tetra)
EPS 12.94 (thanks Chas)Added Rev
Those units #s will produce $13 plus.
-
I might have typo somewhere along the line for Mac ASP. 1280 I think is right.
-
Estimates from Sammy:
http://aaplorchard.tumblr.com/post/26588212323/aapl-3q12-estimate
Revenue: $41.3 billion
GM: 45.5%
EPS: $12.30 -
The Braeburn Group June Quarter AAPL Estimate
The consensus estimates from the 27 index participants are detailed in the table below. On average, the Braeburn Group Index participants expect revenue of $41.577 billion, representing a 45.52% year-over-year revenue rise and earnings per share of $12.32, representing a 58.09% year-over-year gain.
-
$12.20-12.30 is looking like the independent consensus.
Once again, my estimates are fairly closely in line with Cl4.
[ Edited: 08 July 2012 02:04 AM by Mav ]Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Thx Mav.
There was shoehorning to make all the numbers in the ballpark. I’ll try for a better gross margin estimate at the end of the week.
