AAPL Fiscal Q3 2012 Early Estimates

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    Posted: 03 July 2012 11:06 PM

    Whenever you’re ready…

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    Posted: 04 July 2012 04:08 AM #1

    Here’s my very early ballpark estimate from April 24th:

    Burgess - 24 April 2012 10:42 PM

    So now we have some guidance & Q2 performance known, what are the early ballpark predictions for Q3?

    Working from 43.50% GM (2% higher than guidance), iPad growth, and iPhone shrinkage (clearing the channel before iPhone 5 in Q4):

    20 million ipads
    28 million iphones
    5.5 million macs
    7 million ipods

    EPS $12.00

    I’m tempted to stick with that, even though I have a feeling I’m way low on iPads.

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 04:15 AM #2

    Burgess - 04 July 2012 07:08 AM

    Here’s my very early ballpark estimate from April 24th:

    Burgess - 24 April 2012 10:42 PM

    So now we have some guidance & Q2 performance known, what are the early ballpark predictions for Q3?

    Working from 43.50% GM (2% higher than guidance), iPad growth, and iPhone shrinkage (clearing the channel before iPhone 5 in Q4):

    20 million ipads
    28 million iphones
    5.5 million macs
    7 million ipods

    EPS $12.00

    I’m tempted to stick with that, even though I have a feeling I’m way low on iPads.

    Exceptionally low gross margin beat in relation to historical beats.

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 05:34 AM #3

    I stand at:

    32.1M iPhones
    19.9M iPads
    4.72M Macs
    6.15M iPods (like those even matter anymore raspberry)

    $41.98B revs, $12.27 EPS, GM 44.5%.  Seems a little high on revs, a little conservative in some areas such as GM, but it’s a bit of EPS insurance against a lower-than-expected iPhone number I guess.

    [ Edited: 04 July 2012 01:23 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 11:35 AM #4

    What is your share count?

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 12:10 PM #5

    947M

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    Posted: 04 July 2012 12:31 PM #6

    FY2012 Q3  July 32010

    __         Units  ASP  Revenue       
           
    Mac        4600   1288    5925
    iPod       6200    155     961
    iPhone    30900    642   19838
    iPad      19500    562   10959
    iTunes                    2000
    Peripherals                600
    Software                   700

    Total                    40983 
    Gross Revenue            40983
    COGS                     22336
    Gross Income             18647

    GM                        45.5 
    %

    OpEx                      3210
    Operating Income         15437
    OI 
    E                     160
    PreTax                   15597  
    Taxes                     3946  
    (25.3 %)
    Net                      11651

    Shares                     947

    EPS                    
    12.30 

    Transcribed from spreadsheet.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2012 01:13 PM #7

    Mav - 04 July 2012 03:10 PM

    947M

    Thanks. I am using 948 million.

    Real close to you on units, lower on revenues, 44.75% GM, EPS $12.05

    [ Edited: 04 July 2012 01:27 PM by roni ]      
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 01:55 PM #8

    iPhone 33.5M
    iPad 21.4M
    Mac 4.7
    iPod 6.5M
    GM 44.5%
    Rev 42,459,000 (cribbed ASP from Tetra)
    EPS 12.94 (thanks Chas)

    Added Rev

    [ Edited: 04 July 2012 02:18 PM by stkstalker ]

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    Posted: 04 July 2012 02:03 PM #9

    Need a revs number along with EPS for those estimates, people.  Thanks!

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  • Posted: 04 July 2012 03:59 PM #10

    stkstalker - 04 July 2012 04:55 PM

    iPhone 33.5M
    iPad 21.4M
    Mac 4.7
    iPod 6.5M
    GM 44.5%
    Rev 42,459,000 (cribbed ASP from Tetra)
    EPS 12.94 (thanks Chas)

    Added Rev

    Those units #s will produce $13 plus.

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 04:49 PM #11

    I might have typo somewhere along the line for Mac ASP.    1280 I think is right.

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2012 10:23 PM #12

    Estimates from Sammy:

    http://aaplorchard.tumblr.com/post/26588212323/aapl-3q12-estimate

    Revenue: $41.3 billion
    GM: 45.5%
    EPS: $12.30

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 01:30 AM #13

    The Braeburn Group June Quarter AAPL Estimate

    The consensus estimates from the 27 index participants are detailed in the table below. On average, the Braeburn Group Index participants expect revenue of $41.577 billion, representing a 45.52% year-over-year revenue rise and earnings per share of $12.32, representing a 58.09% year-over-year gain.

    http://braeburngroup.com/

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 02:01 AM #14

    $12.20-12.30 is looking like the independent consensus.

    Once again, my estimates are fairly closely in line with Cl4.

    [ Edited: 08 July 2012 02:04 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:11 AM #15

    Thx Mav.

    There was shoehorning to make all the numbers in the ballpark.  I’ll try for a better gross margin estimate at the end of the week.