AAPL Fiscal Q3 2012 Early Estimates

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    Posted: 08 July 2012 03:01 PM #16

    Here’s Dealgol’s F3Q estimates….

    http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/fiscal-3q-2012-final-estimates.html?m=1

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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:46 PM #17

    Have been traveling so a little late posting.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:56 PM #18

    I’m at $12.27, so, we’re basically mostly thinking the same thing based on the numbers I’ve seen so far.

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:24 AM #19

    Does anyone else find it amazing that apple gets such a seemingly shitty cash return on its $100 billion+ in cash & equivalents?

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:37 AM #20

    Huh?  You mean its hyperconservative capital preservation approach?

    Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:40 AM #21

    Mav - 09 July 2012 03:37 AM

    Huh?  You mean its hyperconservative capital preservation approach?

    Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?

    The former, but the latter issue irks me also now that you mention it.

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:43 AM #22

    Apple is doing the right thing I think.  Return on cash = risk.  Apple will lag in income from cash reserves and I could not care less. 

    But when (if?) interest rates rise, as DT has said, those billions will start spinning off billions every year to boost earnings and cash flow the purchase of those smaller companies Apple is fond of acquiring.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:56 AM #23

    Mav - 09 July 2012 03:43 AM

    Apple is doing the right thing I think.  Return on cash = risk.  Apple will lag in income from cash reserves and I could not care less. 

    But when (if?) interest rates rise, as DT has said, those billions will start spinning off billions every year to boost earnings and cash flow the purchase of those smaller companies Apple is fond of acquiring.

    Thats what I’m hoping. I guess there are significant currency transactions & hedging costs involved (not to mention taxation issues), but when I can go down to one of the local NZ/Australian banks down here and get a very safe cash account interest rate of 5%, it feels bizarre that apple manages less than a 1% return.

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:08 AM #24

    Well, it ain’t necessarily safe at 5% around the rest of the world.  5% is but a “happy” memory in the US.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:14 AM #25

    Burgess - 09 July 2012 03:56 AM
    Mav - 09 July 2012 03:43 AM

    Apple is doing the right thing I think.  Return on cash = risk.  Apple will lag in income from cash reserves and I could not care less. 

    But when (if?) interest rates rise, as DT has said, those billions will start spinning off billions every year to boost earnings and cash flow the purchase of those smaller companies Apple is fond of acquiring.

    Thats what I’m hoping. I guess there are significant currency transactions & hedging costs involved (not to mention taxation issues), but when I can go down to one of the local NZ/Australian banks down here and get a very safe cash account interest rate of 5%, it feels bizarre that apple manages less than a 1% return.

    That 5% is retail rates of banks trying to woo your business, and these days, it’s usually temporary.  With foreign banks, you also get currency risk vs dollar-denominated, which is huge.  They could guarantee 5%, but nobody can assure you that the NZ dollar won’t lose 10% vs US dollars due to inflation.  Considering these are dollar denominated, triple-AAA assurances, plus balances of over $100B, I’m just happy AAPL is able to manage anything over zero.

    As an aside, and with $100B in the bank, I do agree I would make sense to allocate a portion, and buy a basket of commercial debt, which could be easily yield 5%, and still be very safe.  Apparently, the near-death experience at AAPL in the 90’s left them scarred, so they’re not willing to do even that.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:22 AM #26

    I’m all for conservative cash management. 

    As for what Apple’s “cash” is comprised of, well it DOES hold commercial paper…just not “much”.  And it’s much more than just cash.  In fact, it’s HARDLY cash (as of the 2011 10-K).  Check out page 55:

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AAPL/1465600822x0xS1193125-11-282113/320193/filing.pdf

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 04:14 AM #27

    Mav - 09 July 2012 04:22 AM

    I’m all for conservative cash management. 

    As for what Apple’s “cash” is comprised of, well it DOES hold commercial paper…just not “much”.  And it’s much more than just cash.  In fact, it’s HARDLY cash (as of the 2011 10-K).  Check out page 55:

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AAPL/1465600822x0xS1193125-11-282113/320193/filing.pdf

    Wow, thanks for that Mav.  Had never seen that level of detail before… probably wasn’t looking.  It’s impressive that roughly 40% of the “cash and cash equivalents” were in “corporate securities”.  Is that FAS550 speak for plain old stocks?  If not, how is that different from “commercial paper”?

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 04:33 AM #28

    It’d be a real kick if Apple owned certain dividend-paying stocks like, say, IBM. LOL

    Apple probably owns some WMT too via either shares or some fund or ETF or something, which is all kinds of ironic to me. wink

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 09:29 PM #29

    Mav - 09 July 2012 07:33 AM

    It’d be a real kick if Apple owned certain dividend-paying stocks like, say, IBM. LOL

    Apple probably owns some WMT too via either shares or some fund or ETF or something, which is all kinds of ironic to me. wink

    Now we know why AMZN has that stoopid P/E ratio. Mercel, get on the horn to investor relations stat!  LOL

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 09:32 PM #30

    Oppenheimer’s Secret Shame:

    AMZN Momo Investor.  LOL

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.