AAPL Fiscal Q3 2012 Early Estimates

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 11:19 PM #31

    As usual, I’ve cribbed heavily from my betters, some of whom contribute to this board. Some will complain that my GM is low, and though I’m sticking with this number, I hope they’re right.

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 11:22 PM #32

    Product     #          $

    Mac         4,454     5,657
    iPod         6,329     975
    iPhone   30,468   19,500
    iPad     21,183   11,714
    iTunes               2,248
    Peripherals           611
    Software               807
         
    Total               41,512

    GM= 44.90%

    EPS= $12.14

    [ Edited: 09 July 2012 11:26 PM by Prazan ]
         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 11:23 PM #33

    Hah!  I’m 40 basis points _lower_ on GM.

    Then again my my revs are a bit higher.

    Btw…no EPS in that image.

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 11:28 PM #34

    Mav - 10 July 2012 02:23 AM

    Hah!  I’m 40 basis points _lower_ on GM.

    Then again my my revs are a bit higher.

    Btw…no EPS in that image.

    Thanks for the sharp eye, Mav. I don’t know which is more balky tonight, the site or my brain.

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2012 11:54 PM #35

    >>Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?

    Why should they?  Apple has shown no indication that this cash will ever find its way to shareholders’ accounts.

         
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    Posted: 10 July 2012 12:18 AM #36

    iphoned - 10 July 2012 02:54 AM

    >>Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?

    Why should they?  Apple has shown no indication that this cash will ever find its way to shareholders’ accounts.

    Well they have started the dividend program, so it would be very easy for them to simply raise the quarterly dividend to a very large amount to start paying out from the treasure chest.

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    Posted: 10 July 2012 12:28 AM #37

    Yeah, c’mon, that was a cheap shot.

    The dividend silenced that argument months ago.  Argue about the size, not the fact of cash distribution.

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    Posted: 10 July 2012 03:22 AM #38

    Prazan - 10 July 2012 02:22 AM

    Product     #          $

    Mac         4,454     5,657
    iPod         6,329     975
    iPhone   30,468   19,500
    iPad     21,183   11,714
    iTunes               2,248
    Peripherals           611
    Software               807
         
    Total               41,512

    GM= 44.90%

    EPS= $12.14

    Lots of estimates in that $12.10-12.30 band.

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    Posted: 10 July 2012 09:26 AM #39

    I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.

    What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.

         
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    Posted: 10 July 2012 11:36 AM #40

    I don’t really “care” about ForEx.  As in I don’t try to quantify the impact much, and ForEx isn’t something I recall hearing much of in any recent CC.

    It’s conservatism via higher iPad mix and lower anticipated ASP.  Leaves room for upside surprise.

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    Posted: 10 July 2012 12:09 PM #41

    From Peter Oppenheimer during the last call:

    “And finally, the last factor we’re pointing out, the U.S. dollar has strengthened recently, and we expect this to have an impact on the sequential compare, especially versus last year when the dollar weakened against most currencies over the comparable time periods.”

         
  • Posted: 10 July 2012 12:13 PM #42

    Burgess - 10 July 2012 03:18 AM
    iphoned - 10 July 2012 02:54 AM

    >>Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?

    Why should they?  Apple has shown no indication that this cash will ever find its way to shareholders’ accounts.

    Well they have started the dividend program, so it would be very easy for them to simply raise the quarterly dividend to a very large amount to start paying out from the treasure chest.

    I think Apple will end up increasing the dividend prior to the first distribution but it won’t be a big increase.

         
  • Posted: 10 July 2012 12:16 PM #43

    Prazan - 10 July 2012 12:26 PM

    I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.

    What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.

    So you are suggesting there was a significant change in fx since Apple issued guidance? Ummm, there wasn’t. Guidance includes this kind of thing and guidance called for a 50 basis point sequential decline. Sure, I think the actual decline will be greater than that since they can’t beat guidance by 540 basis points every quarter but to attribute it to fx is a mistake, in my opinion.

         
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    Posted: 10 July 2012 01:55 PM #44

    adamthompson32 - 10 July 2012 03:16 PM
    Prazan - 10 July 2012 12:26 PM

    I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.

    What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.

    So you are suggesting there was a significant change in fx since Apple issued guidance? Ummm, there wasn’t. Guidance includes this kind of thing and guidance called for a 50 basis point sequential decline. Sure, I think the actual decline will be greater than that since they can’t beat guidance by 540 basis points every quarter but to attribute it to fx is a mistake, in my opinion.

    The Euro declined from 1.32 to 1.23 (Dollar to Euro) during April 27th through June 1st, then stabilized at 1.25 through June. That’s a 5% plus decline, which I consider significant. And given that Apple issued guidance on April 24th, yes, the decline occurred after guidance, though the trend was already in place. If you look through the exchange rate tables, you’ll see the dollar has strengthened from 3% to 7% against most Asian (minus Yuan) and European currencies.

    I’m not attributing a lower GM solely to exchange rates, if you look again at the original post.

         
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    Posted: 10 July 2012 04:32 PM #45

    Ah, thanks, Prazan.

    Maybe I meant to say, he mentioned it once in guidance but it didn’t account for beans.  The fiscal Q2 2012 quarter, for example.

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