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AAPL Fiscal Q3 2012 Early Estimates
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As usual, I’ve cribbed heavily from my betters, some of whom contribute to this board. Some will complain that my GM is low, and though I’m sticking with this number, I hope they’re right.
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Product # $
Mac 4,454 5,657
iPod 6,329 975
iPhone 30,468 19,500
iPad 21,183 11,714
iTunes 2,248
Peripherals 611
Software 807
Total 41,512GM= 44.90%
EPS= $12.14
[ Edited: 09 July 2012 11:26 PM by Prazan ] -
Hah! I’m 40 basis points _lower_ on GM.
Then again my my revs are a bit higher.
Btw…no EPS in that image.
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Hah! I’m 40 basis points _lower_ on GM.
Then again my my revs are a bit higher.
Btw…no EPS in that image.
Thanks for the sharp eye, Mav. I don’t know which is more balky tonight, the site or my brain.
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>>Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?
Why should they? Apple has shown no indication that this cash will ever find its way to shareholders’ accounts.
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>>Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?
Why should they? Apple has shown no indication that this cash will ever find its way to shareholders’ accounts.
Well they have started the dividend program, so it would be very easy for them to simply raise the quarterly dividend to a very large amount to start paying out from the treasure chest.
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Yeah, c’mon, that was a cheap shot.
The dividend silenced that argument months ago. Argue about the size, not the fact of cash distribution.
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Product # $
Mac 4,454 5,657
iPod 6,329 975
iPhone 30,468 19,500
iPad 21,183 11,714
iTunes 2,248
Peripherals 611
Software 807
Total 41,512GM= 44.90%
EPS= $12.14
Lots of estimates in that $12.10-12.30 band.
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Thanks, Steve. -
I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.
What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.
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I don’t really “care” about ForEx. As in I don’t try to quantify the impact much, and ForEx isn’t something I recall hearing much of in any recent CC.
It’s conservatism via higher iPad mix and lower anticipated ASP. Leaves room for upside surprise.
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From Peter Oppenheimer during the last call:
“And finally, the last factor we’re pointing out, the U.S. dollar has strengthened recently, and we expect this to have an impact on the sequential compare, especially versus last year when the dollar weakened against most currencies over the comparable time periods.”
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adamthompson32
- [ Ignore ]
>>Or the lack of value investors place in the cash as seen in the share price?
Why should they? Apple has shown no indication that this cash will ever find its way to shareholders’ accounts.
Well they have started the dividend program, so it would be very easy for them to simply raise the quarterly dividend to a very large amount to start paying out from the treasure chest.
I think Apple will end up increasing the dividend prior to the first distribution but it won’t be a big increase.
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adamthompson32
- [ Ignore ]
I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.
What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.
So you are suggesting there was a significant change in fx since Apple issued guidance? Ummm, there wasn’t. Guidance includes this kind of thing and guidance called for a 50 basis point sequential decline. Sure, I think the actual decline will be greater than that since they can’t beat guidance by 540 basis points every quarter but to attribute it to fx is a mistake, in my opinion.
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I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.
What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.
So you are suggesting there was a significant change in fx since Apple issued guidance? Ummm, there wasn’t. Guidance includes this kind of thing and guidance called for a 50 basis point sequential decline. Sure, I think the actual decline will be greater than that since they can’t beat guidance by 540 basis points every quarter but to attribute it to fx is a mistake, in my opinion.
The Euro declined from 1.32 to 1.23 (Dollar to Euro) during April 27th through June 1st, then stabilized at 1.25 through June. That’s a 5% plus decline, which I consider significant. And given that Apple issued guidance on April 24th, yes, the decline occurred after guidance, though the trend was already in place. If you look through the exchange rate tables, you’ll see the dollar has strengthened from 3% to 7% against most Asian (minus Yuan) and European currencies.
I’m not attributing a lower GM solely to exchange rates, if you look again at the original post.
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Ah, thanks, Prazan.
Maybe I meant to say, he mentioned it once in guidance but it didn’t account for beans. The fiscal Q2 2012 quarter, for example.
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Thanks, Steve.
