AAPL Fiscal Q3 2012 Early Estimates

  • Posted: 10 July 2012 05:43 PM #46

    Prazan - 10 July 2012 04:55 PM
    adamthompson32 - 10 July 2012 03:16 PM
    Prazan - 10 July 2012 12:26 PM

    I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.

    What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.

    So you are suggesting there was a significant change in fx since Apple issued guidance? Ummm, there wasn’t. Guidance includes this kind of thing and guidance called for a 50 basis point sequential decline. Sure, I think the actual decline will be greater than that since they can’t beat guidance by 540 basis points every quarter but to attribute it to fx is a mistake, in my opinion.

    The Euro declined from 1.32 to 1.23 (Dollar to Euro) during April 27th through June 1st, then stabilized at 1.25 through June. That’s a 5% plus decline, which I consider significant. And given that Apple issued guidance on April 24th, yes, the decline occurred after guidance, though the trend was already in place. If you look through the exchange rate tables, you’ll see the dollar has strengthened from 3% to 7% against most Asian (minus Yuan) and European currencies.

    I’m not attributing a lower GM solely to exchange rates, if you look again at the original post.

    Interesting. USD vs Yuan vs Yen were about constant through the June quarter. But the Euro and especially South American currencies (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) weakened considerably against the Dollar and Yuan.

    It would also be interesting to know if Apple does any currency hedging with their cash pile. One would think they would.

    Anyway, without currency hedging, here’s a back of the envelope calculation.

    Some assumptions
    1. Profits from Europe/S. America are reduced by 10 percent (since costs would increase about 5%, for Chinese production for European sales, and gross margins are about 50%).
    2. The affected regions represent about one-third of Apple business.
    3. The currency change only applies for half the quarter.

    This implies a 10% x 33% x 50% = 1.65% reduction in profits. Thus, for eps=$13, currency issues would reduce eps by about 20 cents.

    I don’t know much about these matters, so this could be way off.

         
  • Posted: 10 July 2012 07:41 PM #47

    Prazan - 10 July 2012 04:55 PM
    adamthompson32 - 10 July 2012 03:16 PM
    Prazan - 10 July 2012 12:26 PM

    I locked my numbers on June 15th, before a bunch of stuff happened that took me away from the land of Apple. My iPad numbers might be a little high.

    What’s you’re rationale behind the 44.5% GM? I’m figuring we’re going to take an exchange rate hit this Q with the stronger dollar, in Europe and in Asia ex-China. And the lower margin on iPads combined with a higher percentage of those devices compared to iPhones.

    So you are suggesting there was a significant change in fx since Apple issued guidance? Ummm, there wasn’t. Guidance includes this kind of thing and guidance called for a 50 basis point sequential decline. Sure, I think the actual decline will be greater than that since they can’t beat guidance by 540 basis points every quarter but to attribute it to fx is a mistake, in my opinion.

    The Euro declined from 1.32 to 1.23 (Dollar to Euro) during April 27th through June 1st, then stabilized at 1.25 through June. That’s a 5% plus decline, which I consider significant. And given that Apple issued guidance on April 24th, yes, the decline occurred after guidance, though the trend was already in place. If you look through the exchange rate tables, you’ll see the dollar has strengthened from 3% to 7% against most Asian (minus Yuan) and European currencies.

    I’m not attributing a lower GM solely to exchange rates, if you look again at the original post.

    Flow that through Apple’s entire P&L and you’ll see that it isn’t significant.

         
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    Posted: 12 July 2012 12:40 AM #48

    Still accepting early estimates. smile

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    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 12 July 2012 10:19 PM #49

    Mav - 12 July 2012 03:40 AM

    Still accepting early estimates. smile

    Here are mine for FQ3 2012

    [ Edited: 12 July 2012 10:24 PM by ByeTMO ]
         
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    Posted: 12 July 2012 10:25 PM #50

    $12.54…  Well, you’re at a higher EPS than I am, though only by about a quarter.

    We continue to have a pretty tight range of estimates so far.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 12 July 2012 10:31 PM #51

    Mav - 13 July 2012 01:25 AM

    $12.54…  Well, you’re at a higher EPS than I am, though only by about a quarter.

    We continue to have a pretty tight range of estimates so far.

    I edited it to insert the correct one.  I ran this preliminarily 2 -3 weeks ago and initially pulled the wrong one.  I’m not going to have any time to refine it.  I think it has upside with the iPads and trust the iPhone # holds.

         
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    Posted: 13 July 2012 12:02 AM #52

    I’m aiming for the target with iPhones (means I could easily be high) and being a little bit conservative with iPad.

    Leaving room for error with my GM number.  I see you didn’t add in a share creep factor, though it’s true that when the dividend starts, share creep will be a thing of the past thanks to the buyback/anti-dilution component of the program.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 13 July 2012 01:36 AM #53

    Mav - 13 July 2012 03:02 AM

    I’m aiming for the target with iPhones (means I could easily be high) and being a little bit conservative with iPad.

    Leaving room for error with my GM number.  I see you didn’t add in a share creep factor, though it’s true that when the dividend starts, share creep will be a thing of the past thanks to the buyback/anti-dilution component of the program.

    The sequential share creep from Q2 to Q3 a year ago was immaterial.  I largely punted on it this year—it’s worth 2-3 cents in EPS.  Pffft.

         
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    Posted: 13 July 2012 01:39 AM #54

    I’m just tracking it to track it.  I won’t have to for much longer, thankfully.

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    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 13 July 2012 11:14 AM #55

    I’m looking forward to see if Apple announces an ex dividend date on 7/24.

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    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
  • Posted: 18 July 2012 11:59 AM #56

    Here is why AAPL is a great opportunity right now. These guys are all soooooooo low on iPad. He needs to increase iPad by 40% or so to get to the right ballpark.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/18/aapl-fyq3-consensus-too-high-says-pac-crest-but-no-worries/?mod=yahoobarrons

         
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    Posted: 18 July 2012 12:10 PM #57

    My last and final has increased from 11.98 to 12.20

    An increase in iPad sales makes up most of the difference, but I bumped up iPhone too. Both were lower than the general consensus around here.  I have to give credit to Mercel for yanking me over the twelve dollar transom…..the chart yesterday showing historic guidance and EPS was impressive. And the GM number always seems 25 basis points higher than I think reasonably possible.

    I’ll try to post the spreadsheet later.

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  • Posted: 18 July 2012 01:04 PM #58

    Red Shirted Ensign - 18 July 2012 03:10 PM

    My last and final has increased from 11.98 to 12.20

    An increase in iPad sales makes up most of the difference, but I bumped up iPhone too. Both were lower than the general consensus around here.  I have to give credit to Mercel for yanking me over the twelve dollar transom…..the chart yesterday showing historic guidance and EPS was impressive. And the GM number always seems 25 basis points higher than I think reasonably possible.

    I’ll try to post the spreadsheet later.

    What EPS actual vs. guidance chart are you referring to?

         
  • Posted: 18 July 2012 01:06 PM #59

    adamthompson32 - 18 July 2012 04:04 PM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 18 July 2012 03:10 PM

    My last and final has increased from 11.98 to 12.20

    An increase in iPad sales makes up most of the difference, but I bumped up iPhone too. Both were lower than the general consensus around here.  I have to give credit to Mercel for yanking me over the twelve dollar transom…..the chart yesterday showing historic guidance and EPS was impressive. And the GM number always seems 25 basis points higher than I think reasonably possible.

    I’ll try to post the spreadsheet later.

    What EPS actual vs. guidance chart are you referring to?

    This one.

    Image Attachments

    Guidance vs Actual.png

    Click thumbnail to see full-size image

         
  • Posted: 18 July 2012 02:57 PM #60

    The Mac number is the biggest question that I have.
    Late introduction of new hardware and long lead times on the new MacBook Pro Retina Display