Weekend Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 07 July 2012 03:51 PM #31

    I don’t see 415 until Friday or Monday of the following week.

    And if we don’t see until then, we will need to wait post earnings.

         
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    Posted: 07 July 2012 04:00 PM #32

    omacvi - 07 July 2012 06:51 PM

    I don’t see 615 until Friday or Monday of the following week.

    And if we don’t see until then, we will need to wait post earnings.

    Oh, Absorbent One, what happened to one of the biggest bulls on this board? Give me five good reasons why AAPL fails to gain 6 points over the next 4 trading days.

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    Posted: 07 July 2012 04:14 PM #33

    Assuming Verizon’s iPhone numbers will be down (and they will). Will the Street remember the lesson learned last quarter or will we take another hit prior to the 24th?  Tradable?

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    Because Longer is better…....

         
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    Posted: 07 July 2012 04:21 PM #34

    LEAPfrog - 07 July 2012 07:14 PM

    Assuming Verizon’s iPhone numbers will be down (and they will). Will the Street remember the lesson learned last quarter or will we take another hit prior to the 24th?  Tradable?

    There are too many pot holes to navigate in the next two weeks.  We moved up so strongly last week that I think any move past 614 will be challenging.  A few earnings reports on the weak side and the whole market tumbles taking aapl with it.

    Monday if we don’t go up to 615 then we will need to wait until Friday or later.

    I was very bullish last quarter and now I am much more pratical which sounds bearish.

    The US economy is not as strong as it was 6 months ago.  Apple will be impacted.

         
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    Posted: 07 July 2012 04:25 PM #35

    Mav - 07 July 2012 06:50 PM

    Got this link via Redler at T3.  Fascinating reading about perspectives of some of Japan’s 20-somethings (and one 30-something).

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/0d158be8-c633-11e1-a3d5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1zxnBdwbZ

    great article/good recommendation.  thanx.

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    Posted: 07 July 2012 05:04 PM #36

    omacvi - 07 July 2012 07:21 PM
    LEAPfrog - 07 July 2012 07:14 PM

    Assuming Verizon’s iPhone numbers will be down (and they will). Will the Street remember the lesson learned last quarter or will we take another hit prior to the 24th?  Tradable?

    There are too many pot holes to navigate in the next two weeks.  We moved up so strongly last week that I think any move past 614 will be challenging.  A few earnings reports on the weak side and the whole market tumbles taking aapl with it.

    Monday if we don’t go up to 615 then we will need to wait until Friday or later.

    I was very bullish last quarter and now I am much more pratical which sounds bearish.

    The US economy is not as strong as it was 6 months ago.  Apple will be impacted.

    We started off the quarter at 618…  recently moved up from 560s and we are still below a 15 PE… Twelve trading days before earnings… New stores, new products, new countries, China Mobile, mini iPad, Apple TV… Analysts so far not over-estimating and independents expecting a TTM that even a depressed PE will take to 650 ... dividend coming up… I, too, have become much more practical having watched how AAPL can be held back, but 12 days before earnings in a quarter that hasn’t reached the highs of the prior quarter tells me its time to let out our inner bulls.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 07 July 2012 05:27 PM #37

    I don’t see this as being material to Apple’s financials, but this is pretty interesting:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/07/apple-pulls-products-from-environmental-epeat-registry/

    If EPEAT doesn’t adjust for Apple’s relentless drive towards thinner, lighter, less repairable Macs, I guess Apple has little choice here.  Apparently EPEAT doesn’t have standards for smartphones and tablets.  I’m not sure it could ever make a set of rational “repairability” standards for that class of devices - the present and future of most computing - anyway.

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  • Posted: 07 July 2012 05:38 PM #38

    omacvi - 07 July 2012 06:51 PM

    I don’t see 415 until Friday or Monday of the following week.

    And if we don’t see until then, we will need to wait post earnings.

    Now that post scared me, sponge.

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    Posted: 07 July 2012 06:05 PM #39

    LEAPfrog - 07 July 2012 07:14 PM

    Assuming Verizon’s iPhone numbers will be down (and they will). Will the Street remember the lesson learned last quarter or will we take another hit prior to the 24th?  Tradable?

    And VZ does not report until July 19th, the Thursday before AAPL reports.  Of course, the same scummy analysts will come out with the same story, which could precipitate the same result.

    I’m hoping AAPL rises sufficiently this week such that I can reduce my holdings by Friday/Monday (July 16), and carry a small cache of calls the week when all the FUD will be flying around.

         
  • Posted: 07 July 2012 06:31 PM #40

    qualitywte - 07 July 2012 02:01 PM

    I bought back the Jul 625’s I sold on Thursday, so that means if we don’t make it to 625 on the run up, then I lose less than I would have!

    But you gave back cash you already held.  Further, if AAPL failed to reach $625 they would have expired worthless. Personally, I would look at reselling them should the $625s return to your original sell price (or higher).

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  • Posted: 07 July 2012 06:36 PM #41

    LEAPfrog - 07 July 2012 07:14 PM

    Assuming Verizon’s iPhone numbers will be down (and they will). Will the Street remember the lesson learned last quarter or will we take another hit prior to the 24th?  Tradable?

    But will there be YoY unit growth?, and how much?

    Despite being down (potentially) sequentially, the most important metric will be YoY, and that should be very good.

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    Posted: 07 July 2012 09:26 PM #42

    Agree…

    And after last quarter, when the doomsayers were out in force when AT&T and Verizon reported “light” iPhone sales growth, the impact of international should be better understood this time around

    Plus, I have never, never in all my years of Apple watching, looked forward more to guidance and the conference call than I do this time around.  All the usual Cook and Oppenheimer feint and parry, plus the dividend ex-date, plus the endless guile about new products…...which we KNOW are coming…...but which ones….and when? And what about China? Retail?    Wowsa!

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    Posted: 08 July 2012 12:04 AM #43

    omacvi - 07 July 2012 06:51 PM

    I don’t see 415 until Friday or Monday of the following week.

    And if we don’t see until then, we will need to wait post earnings.

    I hope you’re wrong.  I have 2 remaining July 650 calls that need upward movement the faster the better.  I made ~ 86% so far and the 2 left are for a homerun.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 02:44 PM #44

    How many more hours until the market opens?  I’m ready NOW!!!! :D

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 02:58 PM #45

    Gregg Thurman - 07 July 2012 09:36 PM
    LEAPfrog - 07 July 2012 07:14 PM

    Assuming Verizon’s iPhone numbers will be down (and they will). Will the Street remember the lesson learned last quarter or will we take another hit prior to the 24th?  Tradable?

    But will there be YoY unit growth?, and how much?

    Despite being down (potentially) sequentially, the most important metric will be YoY, and that should be very good.

    Unfortunately, despite VZ reporting a 45% increase in activations YoY last quarter (3.2M vs 2.2M) we still took a FUD bath based on the sequential decline from 4.2M

    AT&T reported 4.3M activations, down from 7.6M sequentially, but up from 3.6M YoY.

    (Edited to add AT&T numbers)

    [ Edited: 08 July 2012 03:31 PM by LEAPfrog ]

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