AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 08 July 2012 07:19 PM

    Thoughts about the upcoming week?

    Only 38 points to a new ATH… :D

    [ Edited: 14 July 2012 01:45 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 07:22 PM #1

    I have many thoughts.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 08:05 PM #2

    Overall market is still in an uptrend.  NFP is behind us. Euro leaders meeting on Monday/Tuesday to hammer out details from recent summit two weeks ago, which sent markets higher.

    AAPL will go up this week.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 08:12 PM #3

    lovemyipad - 08 July 2012 10:19 PM

    Thoughts about the upcoming week?

    Only 38 points to a new ATH… :D

    Thanks for posting all your chart commentary lovey, as mainly a long term LEAP investor I have not paid much attention to TA in the past, but the last month or so I’m starting to see some relevance in short term trends due to your coverage.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 08:17 PM #4

    I suspect aapl will be higher next Friday than this Mon morning.

    Ahem, I also suspect aapl will trade below last Friday’s close for at least part of one day this week.

      Just my WAG ~~~~~~  cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 08:48 PM #5

    johnG - 08 July 2012 11:17 PM

    Ahem, I also suspect aapl will trade below last Friday’s close for at least part of one day this week.

      Just my WAG ~~~~~~  cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    Then let that day be Monday, specifically the morning. From there, nothing but up.

    Travis has the weekly put option wall at 600, so barring some negative news, we’ll at least have that for support.

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 09:40 PM #6

    I’m not sure if this qualifies as a catalyst, but PED is running an early installment of AAPL earnings, asking the question “How many iPads did Apple Sell?”  The top # is 24M sold, which I believe is optimistic.  If Apple DID sell this many, we’re looking at $13+ for EPS. 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/08/how-many-ipads-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-2/

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 09:55 PM #7

    lovemyipad - 08 July 2012 10:19 PM

    Thoughts about the upcoming week?

    Only 38 points to a new ATH… :D

    I need to sell a few shares this week for some past eccentricities and anything over $600 is fine with me.

    smile

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    Bought and Held

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 10:04 PM #8

    I’m ready to trade!

    Just half a day to go.

    Don’t know what the markets will do, but pretty confident about AAPL at least until the US Carrier FUD Zone next week.

    [ Edited: 08 July 2012 10:20 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 10:19 PM #9

    Mercel - 09 July 2012 12:40 AM

    I’m not sure if this qualifies as a catalyst, but PED is running an early installment of AAPL earnings, asking the question “How many iPads did Apple Sell?”  The top # is 24M sold, which I believe is optimistic.  If Apple DID sell this many, we’re looking at $13+ for EPS. 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/08/how-many-ipads-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-2/

    Depends on the iPhone units, and GM

    I am at 21M and an EPS of 12.05.

    If I raise my number to 24M, I get to 12.64

    44.75% GM

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 10:22 PM #10

    I just have to decide when, in the next couple of weeks, I want to close my October and Jan 2013 positions.  They are up 43% and 12% respectively.

    Like to have some cash going into earnings

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 10:24 PM #11

    roni - 09 July 2012 01:19 AM
    Mercel - 09 July 2012 12:40 AM

    I’m not sure if this qualifies as a catalyst, but PED is running an early installment of AAPL earnings, asking the question “How many iPads did Apple Sell?”  The top # is 24M sold, which I believe is optimistic.  If Apple DID sell this many, we’re looking at $13+ for EPS. 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/08/how-many-ipads-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-2/

    Depends on the iPhone units, and GM

    I am at 21M and an EPS of 12.05.

    If I raise my number to 24M, I get to 12.64

    44.75% GM

    Gross margin can easily be 100 basis points higher. While a 325 basis point beat sounds like a lot it’s really just average for AAPL and they are in a cycle of expanding gross margins so I think you’re way too low. They guided gross margin down 50 basis points sequentially. I don’t think it’s necessarily smart to assume gross margins will be 46.9% (down 50 bps from last Q’s actual) but I do think your estimate leaves a lot of room for upside.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 10:27 PM #12

    My guess is by Thursday up to between $618 - $620.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 10:31 PM #13

    roni - 09 July 2012 01:22 AM

    I just have to decide when, in the next couple of weeks, I want to close my October and Jan 2013 positions.  They are up 43% and 12% respectively.

    Like to have some cash going into earnings

    I will likely close my OCT’12 positions the morning after earnings.

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 10:42 PM #14

    adamthompson32 - 09 July 2012 01:24 AM

    Gross margin can easily be 100 basis points higher. While a 325 basis point beat sounds like a lot it’s really just average for AAPL and they are in a cycle of expanding gross margins so I think you’re way too low. They guided gross margin down 50 basis points sequentially. I don’t think it’s necessarily smart to assume gross margins will be 46.9% (down 50 bps from last Q’s actual) but I do think your estimate leaves a lot of room for upside.

    You are right.  My estimate does leave room for upside.  It is also not the lowest GM estimate among folks doing estimates.

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 10:42 PM #15

    roni - 09 July 2012 01:19 AM
    Mercel - 09 July 2012 12:40 AM

    I’m not sure if this qualifies as a catalyst, but PED is running an early installment of AAPL earnings, asking the question “How many iPads did Apple Sell?”  The top # is 24M sold, which I believe is optimistic.  If Apple DID sell this many, we’re looking at $13+ for EPS. 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/08/how-many-ipads-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-2/

    Depends on the iPhone units, and GM

    I am at 21M and an EPS of 12.05.

    If I raise my number to 24M, I get to 12.64

    44.75% GM

    Of course.  But I’m confident with my 31M iPhones and GM (I think you’re light at 44.75%).