AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 08 July 2012 10:43 PM #16

    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:31 AM
    roni - 09 July 2012 01:22 AM

    I just have to decide when, in the next couple of weeks, I want to close my October and Jan 2013 positions.  They are up 43% and 12% respectively.

    Like to have some cash going into earnings

    I will likely close my OCT’12 positions the morning after earnings.

    Interesting indeed…............  FWIW, I made a small side “bet” of OCT 12 650s when you posted about them a few weeks ago. Snagged em for $11.35. I’m obviously kicking myself for not loading up on those bad boys! 

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 10:56 PM #17

    johnG - 09 July 2012 01:43 AM
    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:31 AM

    I will likely close my OCT’12 positions the morning after earnings.

    Interesting indeed…............  FWIW, I made a small side “bet” of OCT 12 650s when you posted about them a few weeks ago. Snagged em for $11.35. I’m obviously kicking myself for not loading up on those bad boys! 

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    Heehee—GOOD FOR YOU for buying that day!!!!!!!! :D I’m thinking those should hit 50.00 shortly… wink

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 10:58 PM #18

    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:31 AM
    roni - 09 July 2012 01:22 AM

    I just have to decide when, in the next couple of weeks, I want to close my October and Jan 2013 positions.  They are up 43% and 12% respectively.

    Like to have some cash going into earnings

    I will likely close my OCT’12 positions the morning after earnings.

    So you are expecting a Jan ‘12 earnings reaction (up and away), as opposed to Oct. ‘11 (down).

    I’m hoping to be out of AAPL prior to earnings, except for maybe some common stock. I can’t take the drama of watching CNBC after the close on the Tuesday of earnings, and waiting for Maria Bartiromo to tell me the earnings.  I’d rather be cashed out at that point.

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2012 10:59 PM #19

    Mav - 09 July 2012 01:04 AM

    Don’t know what the markets will do, but pretty confident about AAPL at least until the US Carrier FUD Zone next week.

    I’m less concerned than you are.  Remember, the Galaxy S III had a long pre-announcement that likely put many Sammy customers on ice during March - June.  The ATT sales guy I spoke to this evening confirmed that sales WERE negatively impacted.

    He also said many of the Galaxy phones are being returned for quality issues or general dissatisfaction.  The buzz with Sammy’s new phone is bringing customers in the store, but they are not an automatic “sell” when they see it.  The HTC X1 gets a better reception by customers, but interest wanes when they learn storage is capped at 16GB.

    He further claims the iPhone sales are stable, which is all we can ask for with a phone that’s really near EOL as Apple’s flagship.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:10 PM #20

    rutgersguy92 - 09 July 2012 01:58 AM
    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:31 AM

    I will likely close my OCT’12 positions the morning after earnings.

    So you are expecting a Jan ‘12 earnings reaction (up and away), as opposed to Oct. ‘11 (down).

    I’m hoping to be out of AAPL prior to earnings, except for maybe some common stock. I can’t take the drama of watching CNBC after the close on the Tuesday of earnings, and waiting for Maria Bartiromo to tell me the earnings.  I’d rather be cashed out at that point.

    WAG only: I’m thinking JUL’12 earnings will be more analogous to JUL’11 and JAN’12 versus APR’11, OCT’11, APR’12.  Nonetheless, I’m a chicken, so I’ll be well out of front month options…mostly AUG’12 630/650 bull spreads remaining with a teeny tiny bit of purely speculative “fun” spreads…like AUG’12 670/680…already unloaded half on the double, so the remainder can be lottery tickets…heehee. smile

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:13 PM #21

    Mav - 09 July 2012 01:04 AM

    I’m ready to trade!
    (...)

    Meeeeeee tooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:25 PM #22

    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:56 AM
    johnG - 09 July 2012 01:43 AM
    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:31 AM

    I will likely close my OCT’12 positions the morning after earnings.

    Interesting indeed…............  FWIW, I made a small side “bet” of OCT 12 650s when you posted about them a few weeks ago. Snagged em for $11.35. I’m obviously kicking myself for not loading up on those bad boys! 

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    Heehee—GOOD FOR YOU for buying that day!!!!!!!! :D I’m thinking those should hit 50.00 shortly… wink

    Madam Moderator, I like the way you think!  So I guess my Oct 620’s will be north of 50.  Nice!

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:25 PM #23

    Mercel - 09 July 2012 01:59 AM
    Mav - 09 July 2012 01:04 AM

    Don’t know what the markets will do, but pretty confident about AAPL at least until the US Carrier FUD Zone next week.

    I’m less concerned than you are.  Remember, the Galaxy S III had a long pre-announcement that likely put many Sammy customers on ice during March - June.  The ATT sales guy I spoke to this evening confirmed that sales WERE negatively impacted.

    He also said many of the Galaxy phones are being returned for quality issues or general dissatisfaction.  The buzz with Sammy’s new phone is bringing customers in the store, but they are not an automatic “sell” when they see it.  The HTC X1 gets a better reception by customers, but interest wanes when they learn storage is capped at 16GB.

    He further claims the iPhone sales are stable, which is all we can ask for with a phone that’s really near EOL as Apple’s flagship.

    Note:  US Carrier FUD Zone = what happened last quarter with the sequential downtick in US iPhone activations.  Competition, pfft.  Competition is anytime, everywhere, and if anything there seem to be _less_ new Android models in the news, if only because of Samsung’s leadership in the Android handset space so far.

    I didn’t necessarily say I was concerned.  I’m just trying to be a better tactical shorter-term trader when I, well, shorter-term trade.  It can be as easy as legging my calls when I think down days are on the way, and re-unhedging if I’m right.

    Risk-wise I’m being more disciplined than usual by my standards.  Jan 13 and Apr 13, some hedged calls, and all other wells prior to that capped at a negligible % of my portfolio value.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:35 PM #24

    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 01:56 AM

    Heehee—GOOD FOR YOU for buying that day!!!!!!!! :D I’m thinking those should hit 50.00 shortly… wink

    woooot ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  bookmarked!  LOL

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2012 11:50 PM #25

    Mercel - 09 July 2012 12:40 AM

    I’m not sure if this qualifies as a catalyst, but PED is running an early installment of AAPL earnings, asking the question “How many iPads did Apple Sell?”  The top # is 24M sold, which I believe is optimistic.  If Apple DID sell this many, we’re looking at $13+ for EPS. 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/08/how-many-ipads-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-2/

    No way 24mil. I’ll be happy with 19-20. Posted my numbers in the other thread. $12.30.

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2012 12:08 AM #26

    ChasMac77 - 09 July 2012 02:50 AM
    Mercel - 09 July 2012 12:40 AM

    I’m not sure if this qualifies as a catalyst, but PED is running an early installment of AAPL earnings, asking the question “How many iPads did Apple Sell?”  The top # is 24M sold, which I believe is optimistic.  If Apple DID sell this many, we’re looking at $13+ for EPS. 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/08/how-many-ipads-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-2/

    No way 24mil. I’ll be happy with 19-20. Posted my numbers in the other thread. $12.30.

    I’m with you Chas.  24M iPad # would be a MASSIVE beat and an unlikely one IMO.

    [ Edited: 09 July 2012 12:14 AM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 09 July 2012 12:13 AM #27

    Mav - 09 July 2012 02:25 AM

    Note:  US Carrier FUD Zone = what happened last quarter with the sequential downtick in US iPhone activations.  Competition, pfft.  Competition is anytime, everywhere, and if anything there seem to be _less_ new Android models in the news, if only because of Samsung’s leadership in the Android handset space so far.

    If competition is weaker during a particular quarter, then Apple is likely to sell stronger, depriving fuel for the FUD machine.  The FUD was proven fallacious last quarter and it will likely be proven wrong this one.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:17 AM #28

    Mercel - 09 July 2012 01:59 AM
    Mav - 09 July 2012 01:04 AM

    Don’t know what the markets will do, but pretty confident about AAPL at least until the US Carrier FUD Zone next week.

    I’m less concerned than you are.  Remember, the Galaxy S III had a long pre-announcement that likely put many Sammy customers on ice during March - June.  The ATT sales guy I spoke to this evening confirmed that sales WERE negatively impacted.

    He also said many of the Galaxy phones are being returned for quality issues or general dissatisfaction.  The buzz with Sammy’s new phone is bringing customers in the store, but they are not an automatic “sell” when they see it.  The HTC X1 gets a better reception by customers, but interest wanes when they learn storage is capped at 16GB.

    He further claims the iPhone sales are stable, which is all we can ask for with a phone that’s really near EOL as Apple’s flagship.

    The Galaxy S3 is being very heavily promoted down here in NZ where it has been on sale for about 2 months (vodafone is even giving away a free trip to space on virgin galactic as a prize), and it definitly shows in sales.

    My wife met up with a group of ex-coworkers from her old workplace, and 3 out of 8 of them had an Galaxy S3! My wife has the iPhone 4S, but even she said the S3 screen was amazing to look at.

    I have no doubt the S3 is the biggest android phone launch ever. While it won’t effect US sales much for last quarter, the international sales may have some effect. I’m actually wondering if my 28 million iPhone prediction is too high.

    Signature

    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:21 AM #29

    40% YOY sales growth would…really suck.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2012 12:26 AM #30

    Burgess - 09 July 2012 03:17 AM

    The Galaxy S3 is being very heavily promoted down here in NZ where it has been on sale for about 2 months (vodafone is even giving away a free trip to space on virgin galactic as a prize), and it definitly shows in sales.

    My wife met up with a group of ex-coworkers from her old workplace, and 3 out of 8 of them had an Galaxy S3! My wife has the iPhone 4S, but even she said the S3 screen was amazing to look at.

    I have no doubt the S3 is the biggest android phone launch ever. While it won’t effect US sales much for last quarter, the international sales may have some effect. I’m actually wondering if my 28 million iPhone prediction is too high.

    Not to worry. 

    Although Sammy’s screen is much larger than the iPhone’s, I preferred HTC’s screen.  The Sammy felt and looked CHEAP, wrapped in a plastic shell mimicking a metal surround.  The lighter weight adds to the perception.