AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:36 AM #31

    Mav - 09 July 2012 03:21 AM

    40% YOY sales growth would…really suck.

    Thats true.

    Although I am counting on a late August/Early September iPhone 5 release, meaning I expect inventory drawdown to have already begun (whereas last years Oct release meant the drawdown occured later.)

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:40 AM #32

    What I’m somewhat confident of is 2013.  iOS with first-class local search and Siri for China = one glorious burst of growth as Apple settles comfortably into a slower-growth enterprise over several years.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 12:58 AM #33

    madmaxroi - 09 July 2012 02:25 AM

    Madam Moderator, I like the way you think!  So I guess my Oct 620’s will be north of 50.  Nice!

    YAY, Max!!! smile

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:02 AM #34

    Mav - 09 July 2012 03:40 AM

    What I’m somewhat confident of is 2013.  iOS with first-class local search and Siri for China = one glorious burst of growth as Apple settles comfortably into a slower-growth enterprise over several years.

    Which is why JAN14 960/950 spreads, yielding as much as 10x recently, are a good bet I think.  Even at an extremely low P/E, and being conservative with growth, $1,000 is almost ridiculously cheap come JAN14.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:03 AM #35

    Well!  I better unhinge - er, unhedge, my Oct 600s then!

    (That’s your cue to sell and run for the hills. LOL)

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:03 AM #36

    Mav - 09 July 2012 02:25 AM

    (...)I’m just trying to be a better tactical shorter-term trader when I, well, shorter-term trade.  It can be as easy as legging my calls when I think down days are on the way, and re-unhedging if I’m right.
    (...)

    YAY, Mav!!! smile

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:04 AM #37

    OK, Jan 14 960/950 wha?  Is that a bull put spread or something?

    Or do you mean the 950/960 bull call spread?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:04 AM #38

    Burgess - 08 July 2012 11:12 PM
    lovemyipad - 08 July 2012 10:19 PM

    Thoughts about the upcoming week?

    Only 38 points to a new ATH… :D

    Thanks for posting all your chart commentary lovey, as mainly a long term LEAP investor I have not paid much attention to TA in the past, but the last month or so I’m starting to see some relevance in short term trends due to your coverage.

    YAY, Burgess!!! smile

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:04 AM #39

    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 04:03 AM
    Mav - 09 July 2012 02:25 AM

    (...)I’m just trying to be a better tactical shorter-term trader when I, well, shorter-term trade.  It can be as easy as legging my calls when I think down days are on the way, and re-unhedging if I’m right.
    (...)

    YAY, Mav!!! smile

    Yes, but I ain’t always right and that’s when I blame you for everything for this over-my-head Options 301 business obviously I’m just kidding please don’t hurt me

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:05 AM #40

    Mav - 09 July 2012 04:04 AM

    OK, Jan 14 960/950 wha?  Is that a bear call spread or something?

    I think mjuarez writes his short leg first.  (I always write the lower strike first.)

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:06 AM #41

    Mav - 09 July 2012 04:04 AM

    Yes, but I ain’t always right and that’s when I blame you for everything for this over-my-head Options 301 business obviously I’m just kidding please don’t hurt me

    ROFL!!!!!!!

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:07 AM #42

    lovemyipad - 09 July 2012 04:05 AM
    Mav - 09 July 2012 04:04 AM

    OK, Jan 14 960/950 wha?  Is that a bear call spread or something?

    I think mjuarez writes his short leg first.  (I always write the lower strike first.)

    That requires:

    - Truckloads of shares :oh:

    - Level 4 options trading - that most risky of levels I dare not apply for just because of the risks of placing an unintended order type :bugeyed:

    And wait wait wait.  _Write_ the lower strike?

    [ Edited: 09 July 2012 01:10 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:15 AM #43

    Nonono, not THAT kind of write, not synonymous with “short.”  I mean the kind of write that is synonymous with “type” or “refer” or “label.” 

    When I have a bear put spread, I say I have a 630/650 bear put spread.  If it’s a bull put spread, I say I have a 630/650 bull put spread.  I like to say them in numerical order. smile

    But I think some people like to be consistent about listing either the long leg first every time, or the short leg first every time, which switches the order.  630/650 versus 650/630.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 01:18 AM #44

    I’m still so confused. :bugeyed:

    Then again, I’m pretty keep-to-basics with options.  Calls or BCSes.  I’ll write calls on short legs and buy the long calls or puts as usual.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2012 02:02 AM #45

    roni - 09 July 2012 01:22 AM

    I just have to decide when, in the next couple of weeks, I want to close my October and Jan 2013 positions.  They are up 43% and 12% respectively.

    Like to have some cash going into earnings

    When in an earnings run does option IV typically rise then tank? Thanks in advance, Roni, or anyone else with some experience/insight.

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