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Look, Aren’t We Trying To Make Money On AAPL Here (Among Other Things)?
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Please forgive me if I quote some posts made on intraday.
Just an observation.
As I recall, earlier this year when everyone was comparing how much money they made in 2011, SleepyGeek was the leader on a percentage basis with his strategy of buying LEAPS for the following year.
Just an observation.
Peter Lynch outperformed the market. Warren Buffet outperformed the market. Bill Miller outperformed the market, for a while. Quants who use computers to predict trends (by the second, minute, hour, day, week, month) seem to outperform the market.
So where are the TA practitioners who outperform the market? And what advantage do they claim over the quants? Computers can’t read charts? The quants don’t know yet about Bollinger Bands?
have never understood this either. From my point of view:
1. Whatever tools we (amateur investors) have, the pros have better ones
2. Whatever trends or patterns we see, the pros see sooner
3. Whatever trade we want to make fast, the pros make faster
4. Whatever training and expertise we think we have, the pros have more of
5. Algorithms the pros cook up with the best talent money can buy, will never be available to the rest of us.
More power to traders that can overcome this tilted playing field over the long haul. However, I am not convinced that the successful traders are not simply statistics doing their work, where the math says that some will win for a while. Hopefully a bunch of you are proving this pessimism towards active trading to be totally wrong.
Um, did you want a show of hands? I trade on technicals. I’ve outperformed so far, but who knows…I might just be lucky…we’ll have to see if five or ten years from now I’m a bag lady or not.
I don’t compete with the quants…I attempt to follow the trail of breadcrumbs they leave in their wake. I don’t compete with anyone actually…I just try to maximize my returns and minimize my risk..plus I really love trading or I wouldn’t do it since dollar-cost averaging works perfectly fine (that’s how I have always invested). If you’re happy with your investing/trading style and your ROI, wonderful, I’m happy for you.
In my experience, people who disparage technicals have an incomplete understanding of what TA does and does not encompass.
Okay, forget the argument over TA and short term trading. I may well be wrong (not unusual).
But think about this. We spend oodles of time discussing how Apple is going to conquer the world/outperform the market, all true in my opinion. So, if you are a true believer, why not just bet long-term? You take the gambling and vagaries out of the equation. Go with LEAPS. Think we will get 60% growth next year - after how many years of far more than that? Well, multiply that by your favorite PE and then sit tight with the appropriate LEAPs.
Why take a chance when you don’t have to? You MAY make more money going short-term but ... er, don’t we have a pretty good thing going here long-term?
Just something to consider.
[ Edited: 10 July 2012 09:32 PM by veritas ]
Editted too corect speling. -
Why don’t we all trade/invest the same way?
Different strokes for different folks, and best of luck to all, is what I say.
I personally incorporate multiple styles of trading in the same account - shares that I have no intention of letting go, longer-term trades, shorter-term trades, a 1-3 day momo trade here, an opportunistic FINRA day trade every so often. That other people do different things doesn’t bug me. That other people occasionally argue their style is best is fine. It’s when other people make broad-brush assertions or comments about the various investing or trading disciplines (ignoring that, as in my case, one person may well trade in several different styles in one or more accounts) - or just will not shut up about how they are right, some “everyone else” is wrong, and are just plain broken record/unreasonable - that things start to get dicey.
I’m a fundamentals-based trader-investor that is exploring the potential value in technicals to help sort out nearer-term price movements.
[ Edited: 10 July 2012 09:45 PM by Mav ]Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I agree with Mav, everyone has their style and let’s not castigate folks. Some of us are buy and hold with AAPL, and I’m up 6000% since 1999 so the short term swings are just points until the next high. AAPL may at some point become MSFT, but unlikely in 2012/13 as we experience what leadership in the mobile revolution really means.
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I’m up 6000% since 1999
*chokes on coffee*
*releases steam from collar*
*counts to 10*
Ahem!
Congratulations.
:D
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I’m not bragging Mav. My point is AAPL has been a once in a lifetime kind of investment that Peter Lynch bragged about in his books. My initial Apple theory was, I would invest $1000 in Apple and wait to buy a computer until I could pay for the computer with the shares. This was back in 84 and never worked out but I still bought a 512K Fat Mac and did my masters on this small 9 ” screen, but you can’t do productive work on a small screen. I found my way back to Apple in 99 and the ride has been exciting. Most likely I’ll be like Mace, trying to figure out how best to unload my shares without all the taxes, but one thing I learned as a high tech investor is to dump the losers and let the winners run. Simple on paper, but difficult in execution.
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I…uh…suspect? you’re not bragging. (Recall I have a thing about that, it’s just a me deal, and as you might guess I’m not at 60x.
)Funny though, you don’t seem like a trader type to me. And really, veritas/Lstream are talking traders.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I am another long term holder - over 8,000% in my case. This has not stopped me for playing options, as that holding is untouchable, as I see no reason to sell. All I play right now is spreads. I think they can result in a greater return than just buying more shares. I also don’t consider them terribly risky, if you are willing to constrict the upside. I have seen several trades that have been rapid doubles, and am up nearly 100% in a little under a year. Made some stupid decisions along the way too. So far the returns are well beyond what I could have achieved with buying more shares.
With all of that said, if I was not lucky enough to buy those shares years ago, then I would very likely have been spending my money accumulating shares. My option account is a small percentage of the overall portfolio, so I am managing risk that way.
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OK, what.
80x?!
I quit.
Gone forever.
For a few minutes.
OK, more seriously, leverage is fine with full understanding of the risks and if you pick the right horse over the right timeframe. I’m seeing nothing but common ground here.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
But think about this. We spend oodles of time discussing how Apple is going to conquer the world/outperform the market, all true in my opinion. So, if you are a true believer, why not just bet long-term? You take the gambling and vagaries out of the equation. Go with LEAPS. Think we will get 60% growth next year - after how many years of far more than that? Well, multiply that by your favorite PE and then sit tight with the appropriate LEAPs.
Why take a chance when you don’t have to? You MAY make more money going short-term but ... er, don’t we have a pretty good thing going here long-term?
80% of my portfolio is long-term AAPL holdings. I consider that “investment.” Anything of shorter duration I consider trading. And I do it because I *enjoy* it, and because I don’t entirely suck at it. It will take me a loooooong time to reach 8000% ROI on any kind of noteworthy scale…I’m making up for lost time!
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I…uh…suspect? you’re not bragging. (Recall I have a thing about that, it’s just a me deal, and as you might guess I’m not at 60x.
)Funny though, you don’t seem like a trader type to me. And really, veritas/Lstream are talking traders.
My option trades are long term compared to the traders here. My spreads typically have 4 to 6 months to deliver on their potential. If the stock goes on a run, then I can be out a lot quicker though.
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Trading focuses the mind in some pretty remarkable ways.
No one said you had to - or even _should_ - use large chunks of your portfolio to trade short-term. My recent short-term momo trade was less than 5% of my portfolio value.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I…uh…suspect? you’re not bragging. (Recall I have a thing about that, it’s just a me deal, and as you might guess I’m not at 60x.
)Funny though, you don’t seem like a trader type to me. And really, veritas/Lstream are talking traders.
My option trades are long term compared to the traders here. My spreads typically have 4 to 6 months to deliver on their potential. If the stock goes on a run, then I can be out a lot quicker though.
Hah! Core-trade-wise, I’m even more conservative than you are! Try 5-10 months.
[ Edited: 10 July 2012 10:17 PM by Mav ] I should add that the Jan BCS was put in place months ago.Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
OK, what.
80x?!
I quit.
Gone forever.
For a few minutes.
OK, more seriously, leverage is fine with full understanding of the risks and if you pick the right horse over the right timeframe. I’m seeing nothing but common ground here.
Yep, common ground. I have never used leverage though, and never will.
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Sorry…actually, you are at this very minute.
S’called options. The leverage is in the increased upswings and downswings due to virtual control of higher amounts of AAPL stock that you either don’t wanna buy or couldn’t afford otherwise (given the option to purchase and the lots of 100 shares).
Margin leverage is another animal, but related.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I’m mostly buy and hold. About 4000% since 2003. I do buy occasional LEAPS, but usually with at least a 9 month lead time. In 2007 I did very well with those. Since I’m retiring in about a month I may have more time for trading in the future. BTW, financially I could have retired long ago, but I had to wait for Medicare eligibility before I could dump my employer provided health insurance.
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1,487% since Jan 2009, but I am kindy conservative :wink:
283% YTD as of today’s close
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