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AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive
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‘Twas the week before earnings, and all through the house…
[ Edited: 20 July 2012 09:54 PM by lovemyipad ]
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If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?
JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)
PUTS
585 - 9,117
590 - 8,274
595 - 6,614
600 - 16,476CALLS
600 - 29,503
605 - 16,623
610 - 19,960
615 - 13,430 -
Phoebear611
- [ Ignore ]
The sharp decline in Nokia and Rimm (in particular in the enterprise space)—has any of it been accounted for within the AAPL numbers - you think?
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Keep Calm and Carry On
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If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?
JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)
PUTS
585 - 9,117
590 - 8,274
595 - 6,614
600 - 16,476CALLS
600 - 29,503
605 - 16,623
610 - 19,960
615 - 13,430Easy. I would have bought the 600 calls back I wrote way back when and locked in the profit. With option interest increasing and share price going higher, it takes more EO $ to sell AAPL back under the highest OI at $600.
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If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?
JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)
PUTS
585 - 9,117
590 - 8,274
595 - 6,614
600 - 16,476CALLS
600 - 29,503
605 - 16,623
610 - 19,960
615 - 13,430Ideally, I would whipsaw to knock out both sides.
Scenario 1: Up then down. A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes. I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600. Rinse and repeat.
Scenario 2: Down then up. A breakdown below 597 would pop stops on the long side. See above in reverse.
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If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?
JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)
PUTS
585 - 9,117
590 - 8,274
595 - 6,614
600 - 16,476CALLS
600 - 29,503
605 - 16,623
610 - 19,960
615 - 13,430Ideally, I would whipsaw to knock out both sides.
Scenario 1: Up then down. A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes. I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600. Rinse and repeat.
Scenario 2: Down then up. A breakdown below 597 would pop stops on the long side. See above in reverse.
I would sure like to know how many of those 600 calls are hedged by the EO
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“Despite” max pain being in the 605-610 range last week, we did peak at around 619 early in the week.
There’s at least a chance that OpEx won’t be in play for the early half of the week, though past isn’t prelude and all the rest.
Short-term traders, trade carefully. I unhedged some shorter-term calls recently (not Jul 12s) and may re-hedge up very quickly depending on what I see between Monday and Wednesday.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
“Despite” max pain being in the 605-610 range last week, we did peak at around 619 early in the week.
There’s at least a chance that OpEx won’t be in play for the early half of the week, though past isn’t prelude and all the rest.
Short-term traders, trade carefully. I unhedged some shorter-term calls recently (not Jul 12s) and may re-hedge up very quickly depending on what I see between Monday and Wednesday.
Agreed. Given how cheaply the EO could have hedged over the past 3 weeks, I’m hopeful AAPL will trade based on anticipated earnings and divvy announcement on July 24th.
Generally, if option interest goes higher and share price is at $600, is it possible the EO have already locked in their premium profits, which have been significant? It would take less $ to keep what they have through options than selling to keep AAPL under $600, barring any catalysts (beyond the anticipated earnings call). Or am I missing something here?
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Verizon reports on Thursday - that will be more than enough FUD for the EO to drop apple back to $600 after a decent Mon-Wed runup.
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Full Disclosure:
- Long Apple
- Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics -
Verizon reports on Thursday - that will be more than
enough FUD for the EO to drop apple back to $600 after a decent Mon-Wed runup.That is how I see it too.
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AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before
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If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?
JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)
PUTS
585 - 9,117
590 - 8,274
595 - 6,614
600 - 16,476CALLS
600 - 29,503
605 - 16,623
610 - 19,960
615 - 13,430OpEx pain works until it doesn’t, i.e., once Sentiment/News/Event Mode™ takes over, and then even the EO’s have to run with the bulls like they are in Pamplona. Option pain is kind of like seawalls and levies in New Orleans; they work great under normal circumstances, but when the perfect storm comes…And if there were ever a time for that, it would be this week. Then again, we do have 2 trading days before earnings after this month’s OpEx, so there’s that.
In other words, I won’t know for sure about this week’s action until Friday at 3:59:59 (call me “Mr. Helper”). All I know is, I am getting pretty F-ing sick of red futures.
My WAG is that we run up a bit next Monday and Tue, possibly even to an ATH, then correct a bit after earnings (due to “dur-hur, iPhone sales are down OMG!”). And that, my friends, will be the time to buy buy buy AAPL, because the next two quarters (Q4 & Q1) are going to be ridiculous. - IMHNAO (In My Humble Non-Advice Opinion).
Oh, and now that I have written a lengthy comment, it is a perfect time for lovemyipad to moot it with the new intraday thread.
[ Edited: 15 July 2012 08:05 PM by JDSoCal ]Signature
We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007
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I think I will try to sell some 620/625 call spreads mid-week if I can get a good price.
And since technically they are monthlies and not weeklies, it’s morally ok =P
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(...)
Oh, and now that I have written a lengthy comment, it is a perfect time for lovemyipad to moot it with the new intraday thread.You forget my magic powers!
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Verizon reports on Thursday - that will be more than
enough FUD for the EO to drop apple back to $600 after a decent Mon-Wed runup.That is how I see it too.
Agreed on Verizon Thursday.
[ Edited: 15 July 2012 08:24 PM by Mav ]Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
nate010203
- [ Ignore ]
if verizon posts lower iphone numbers then expected is aapl gonna tank like last time?
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(...)
Oh, and now that I have written a lengthy comment, it is a perfect time for lovemyipad to moot it with the new intraday thread.You forget my magic powers!
Well you did create this thread *one minute* after my post.
But thanks for moving it.
Now, bring on the perfect storm! The good kind, that is.
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We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007
