AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 15 July 2012 08:04 PM

    ‘Twas the week before earnings, and all through the house… wink

    [ Edited: 20 July 2012 09:54 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 04:34 PM #1

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 04:41 PM #2

    The sharp decline in Nokia and Rimm (in particular in the enterprise space)—has any of it been accounted for within the AAPL numbers - you think?

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  • Posted: 15 July 2012 04:55 PM #3

    Xphilos - 15 July 2012 07:34 PM

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

    Easy.  I would have bought the 600 calls back I wrote way back when and locked in the profit.  With option interest increasing and share price going higher, it takes more EO $ to sell AAPL back under the highest OI at $600.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 04:59 PM #4

    Xphilos - 15 July 2012 07:34 PM

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

    Ideally, I would whipsaw to knock out both sides. 

    Scenario 1: Up then down.  A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes.  I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600.  Rinse and repeat.

    Scenario 2: Down then up.  A breakdown below 597 would pop stops on the long side.  See above in reverse.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 05:30 PM #5

    lovemyipad - 15 July 2012 07:59 PM
    Xphilos - 15 July 2012 07:34 PM

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

    Ideally, I would whipsaw to knock out both sides. 

    Scenario 1: Up then down.  A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes.  I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600.  Rinse and repeat.

    Scenario 2: Down then up.  A breakdown below 597 would pop stops on the long side.  See above in reverse.

    I would sure like to know how many of those 600 calls are hedged by the EO

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 05:35 PM #6

    “Despite” max pain being in the 605-610 range last week, we did peak at around 619 early in the week.

    There’s at least a chance that OpEx won’t be in play for the early half of the week, though past isn’t prelude and all the rest.

    Short-term traders, trade carefully.  I unhedged some shorter-term calls recently (not Jul 12s) and may re-hedge up very quickly depending on what I see between Monday and Wednesday.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 05:52 PM #7

    Mav - 15 July 2012 08:35 PM

    “Despite” max pain being in the 605-610 range last week, we did peak at around 619 early in the week.

    There’s at least a chance that OpEx won’t be in play for the early half of the week, though past isn’t prelude and all the rest.

    Short-term traders, trade carefully.  I unhedged some shorter-term calls recently (not Jul 12s) and may re-hedge up very quickly depending on what I see between Monday and Wednesday.

    Agreed.  Given how cheaply the EO could have hedged over the past 3 weeks, I’m hopeful AAPL will trade based on anticipated earnings and divvy announcement on July 24th. 

    Generally, if option interest goes higher and share price is at $600, is it possible the EO have already locked in their premium profits, which have been significant?  It would take less $ to keep what they have through options than selling to keep AAPL under $600, barring any catalysts (beyond the anticipated earnings call).  Or am I missing something here?

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 07:39 PM #8

    Verizon reports on Thursday - that will be more than enough FUD for the EO to drop apple back to $600 after a decent Mon-Wed runup.

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    Full Disclosure:

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    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 07:41 PM #9

    Burgess - 15 July 2012 10:39 PM

    Verizon reports on Thursday - that will be more than
    enough FUD for the EO to drop apple back to $600 after a decent Mon-Wed runup.

    That is how I see it too.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 08:03 PM #10

    Xphilos - 15 July 2012 07:34 PM

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

    OpEx pain works until it doesn’t, i.e., once Sentiment/News/Event Mode™ takes over, and then even the EO’s have to run with the bulls like they are in Pamplona. Option pain is kind of like seawalls and levies in New Orleans; they work great under normal circumstances, but when the perfect storm comes…And if there were ever a time for that, it would be this week. Then again, we do have 2 trading days before earnings after this month’s OpEx, so there’s that.

    In other words, I won’t know for sure about this week’s action until Friday at 3:59:59 (call me “Mr. Helper”). All I know is, I am getting pretty F-ing sick of red futures.

    My WAG is that we run up a bit next Monday and Tue, possibly even to an ATH, then correct a bit after earnings (due to “dur-hur, iPhone sales are down OMG!”). And that, my friends, will be the time to buy buy buy AAPL, because the next two quarters (Q4 & Q1) are going to be ridiculous. - IMHNAO (In My Humble Non-Advice Opinion).

    Oh, and now that I have written a lengthy comment, it is a perfect time for lovemyipad to moot it with the new intraday thread.

    [ Edited: 15 July 2012 08:05 PM by JDSoCal ]

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  • Posted: 15 July 2012 08:08 PM #11

    I think I will try to sell some 620/625 call spreads mid-week if I can get a good price.

    And since technically they are monthlies and not weeklies, it’s morally ok =P

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 08:10 PM #12

    JDSoCal - 15 July 2012 11:03 PM

    (...)
    Oh, and now that I have written a lengthy comment, it is a perfect time for lovemyipad to moot it with the new intraday thread.

    You forget my magic powers! wink

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 08:13 PM #13

    Red Shirted Ensign - 15 July 2012 10:41 PM
    Burgess - 15 July 2012 10:39 PM

    Verizon reports on Thursday - that will be more than
    enough FUD for the EO to drop apple back to $600 after a decent Mon-Wed runup.

    That is how I see it too.

    Agreed on Verizon Thursday.

    [ Edited: 15 July 2012 08:24 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 08:22 PM #14

    if verizon posts lower iphone numbers then expected is aapl gonna tank like last time?

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 08:41 PM #15

    lovemyipad - 15 July 2012 11:10 PM
    JDSoCal - 15 July 2012 11:03 PM

    (...)
    Oh, and now that I have written a lengthy comment, it is a perfect time for lovemyipad to moot it with the new intraday thread.

    You forget my magic powers! wink

    Well you did create this thread *one minute* after my post.

    But thanks for moving it.

    Now, bring on the perfect storm! The good kind, that is.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007