AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 15 July 2012 09:09 PM #16

    nate010203 - 15 July 2012 11:22 PM

    if verizon posts lower iphone numbers then expected is aapl gonna tank like last time?

    The key word is “expected” - On its current refresh cycle, Apple will always sell less iPhones in the US during the May-June quarter than it does in the preceding quarters ending March & December. We here at AFB expect this, but every year wall street seem in general seem to treat any lower sequential number from a US carrier as a mini catastrophe.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 09:19 PM #18

    The Three-Strike Rule

    I just had a pleasant discussion with lovemyipad (a/k/a “the boss”). I’d like to reiterate her three-strike rule has been put in place. Upon the third violation of the AFB member civility rules swift action will be taken without additional discussion or notice.

    Just a reminder there’s no name calling in the AFB and personal attacks are not allowed.

    Thank you and have a nice day.  grin

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 09:27 PM #19

    Burgess - 16 July 2012 12:09 AM
    nate010203 - 15 July 2012 11:22 PM

    if verizon posts lower iphone numbers then expected is aapl gonna tank like last time?

    The key word is “expected” - On its current refresh cycle, Apple will always sell less iPhones in the US during the May-June quarter than it does in the preceding quarters ending March & December. We here at AFB expect this, but every year wall street seem in general seem to treat any lower sequential number from a US carrier as a mini catastrophe.

    I think too much is being made of what Verizon reports.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 09:28 PM #20

    Cripes, no more trolling iPad.  Well, at least I have advance notice.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 09:44 PM #21

    Here, the iPad Mini “rumor” deserves quotation marks now, because it appears Apple leaked the news to the NYT. 

    http://9to5mac.com/2012/07/15/apple-finally-leaks-7-85-inch-ipad-rumor-to-new-york-times-on-eve-of-nexus-7-launch/

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 10:00 PM #22

    Mercel - 16 July 2012 12:27 AM
    Burgess - 16 July 2012 12:09 AM
    nate010203 - 15 July 2012 11:22 PM

    if verizon posts lower iphone numbers then expected is aapl gonna tank like last time?

    The key word is “expected” - On its current refresh cycle, Apple will always sell less iPhones in the US during the May-June quarter than it does in the preceding quarters ending March & December. We here at AFB expect this, but every year wall street seem in general seem to treat any lower sequential number from a US carrier as a mini catastrophe.

    I think too much is being made of what Verizon reports.

    I agree in that it is relativly meaningles to apples international iPhone total, but in previous quarters the release of verizons iphone numbers have had an effect on AAPL stock price regardless.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 10:11 PM #23

    Phoebear611 - 15 July 2012 07:41 PM

    The sharp decline in Nokia and Rimm (in particular in the enterprise space)—has any of it been accounted for within the AAPL numbers - you think?

    Given the decline by two if the previously most dominant players, if Apple reports iPhone units with >50% YoY growth, and guides positively for fiscal Q$, AAPL should pop nicely.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 10:18 PM #24

    Mav - 16 July 2012 12:28 AM

    Cripes, no more trolling iPad.  Well, at least I have advance notice.

    I promise to be good.. But sometimes Mav hits first.  :innocent:

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 10:23 PM #25

    Mercel - 16 July 2012 12:27 AM
    Burgess - 16 July 2012 12:09 AM
    nate010203 - 15 July 2012 11:22 PM

    if verizon posts lower iphone numbers then expected is aapl gonna tank like last time?

    The key word is “expected” - On its current refresh cycle, Apple will always sell less iPhones in the US during the May-June quarter than it does in the preceding quarters ending March & December. We here at AFB expect this, but every year wall street seem in general seem to treat any lower sequential number from a US carrier as a mini catastrophe.

    I think too much is being made of what Verizon reports.

    Agreed.  The US market is no longer the largest in the world.  Verizon is no where near the largest carrier in the world.

    Verizon sales may drop for other reasons than generally soft demand.  Sprint, for instance, uses the same CDMA technology, and is aggressively marketing the iPhone.  If the combination of Sprint, ATT (don’t they report this week as well?) and Verizon looked soft, then MAYBE, we may have a problem.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 10:24 PM #26

    In all seriousness - are traders that dumb to assume we could still be guided off of Verizon numbers even though a lesson (I thought) was taught about this during last quarter’s announcements?

    [ Edited: 15 July 2012 10:28 PM by Phoebear611 ]

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 10:25 PM #27

    Xphilos - 15 July 2012 07:34 PM

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

    That would depend on what positions I had taken knowing where I intended to move the market. Your question is exactly the type of question I think we should be asking and discussing.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2012 10:31 PM #28

    Mercel - 15 July 2012 08:30 PM
    lovemyipad - 15 July 2012 07:59 PM
    Xphilos - 15 July 2012 07:34 PM

    If you were captain of Team Overlord, what would you do?

    JUL 12 options open interest (expiring this week)

    PUTS

    585 -  9,117
    590 -  8,274
    595 -  6,614
    600 - 16,476

    CALLS

    600 - 29,503
    605 - 16,623
    610 - 19,960
    615 - 13,430

    Ideally, I would whipsaw to knock out both sides. 

    Scenario 1: Up then down.  A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes.  I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600.  Rinse and repeat.

    Scenario 2: Down then up.  A breakdown below 597 would pop stops on the long side.  See above in reverse.

    I would sure like to know how many of those 600 calls are hedged by the EO

    That would be near Holy Grail. I’ve heard that that type of information is for sale. What do you say we form an AFB collective to purchase the information? What the hell, why don’t we just become evil overlords ourselves?

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 10:43 PM #29

    The issue of taxes on line shopping is really coming to a head as sources of funds are being sought.  If they (the government) institute taxes ....AMZN is dead man walking.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303644004577525070594717752.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2012 10:43 PM #30

    Mercel - 16 July 2012 12:44 AM

    Here, the iPad Mini “rumor” deserves quotation marks now, because it appears Apple leaked the news to the NYT. 

    http://9to5mac.com/2012/07/15/apple-finally-leaks-7-85-inch-ipad-rumor-to-new-york-times-on-eve-of-nexus-7-launch/

    From the article:

    Recap: the new smaller iPad will cost less than the $499 iPad third generation.  They wouldn?t even go out on a limb and say it would cost less than the $399 iPad 2?

    If, and I want to reiterate IF Apple releases a smaller iPad, I don’t see them pro ing it below $399.  Get last year’s 10” model for $399, or get this year’s 7” model for $399.  Take your pick.

    At $399 this forces the competition to price at $299 to gain any traction.  At that price, even if Apple didn’t control retina displays, A6 processors, aluminum bodies, and NAND supply, the competition is going to struggle to make a profit.  They certainly won’t generate the profit necessary to get Apple-like concessions for the supply chain.  Of course they can under spec it (8 Mg non-expandable memory) to lessen cost, but the iPad comes standard with 16 Mg (which I find is not enough) and is expandable (at time of purchase).  After all that, iPad panache/ecosystem would generate sales much higher than the competition.

    At $199 the Nexus 7 will get buyers the same way that HP and RIMM sold their efforts…to clear mounting inventory.  This is a desperate attempt (as in loss leader) for Google to remain relevant in mobile search.  I feel confident that this strategy (which most likely will be employed by Samsung and MSFT) is going to backfire.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.