AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 15 July 2012 10:45 PM #31

    Thinking about it, I can see someone like Samsung licensing webOS from HP (its Open Source), then bringing it up to date over a two year period, then buying webOS in its entirety, and bringing it in house as a proprietary OS.

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    Posted: 15 July 2012 11:41 PM #32

    Gregg Thurman - 16 July 2012 01:43 AM
    Mercel - 16 July 2012 12:44 AM

    Here, the iPad Mini “rumor” deserves quotation marks now, because it appears Apple leaked the news to the NYT. 

    http://9to5mac.com/2012/07/15/apple-finally-leaks-7-85-inch-ipad-rumor-to-new-york-times-on-eve-of-nexus-7-launch/

    From the article:

    Recap: the new smaller iPad will cost less than the $499 iPad third generation.  They wouldn?t even go out on a limb and say it would cost less than the $399 iPad 2?

    If, and I want to reiterate IF Apple releases a smaller iPad, I don’t see them pro ing it below $399.  Get last year’s 10” model for $399, or get this year’s 7” model for $399.  Take your pick.

    At $399 this forces the competition to price at $299 to gain any traction.  At that price, even if Apple didn’t control retina displays, A6 processors, aluminum bodies, and NAND supply, the competition is going to struggle to make a profit.  They certainly won’t generate the profit necessary to get Apple-like concessions for the supply chain.  Of course they can under spec it (8 Mg non-expandable memory) to lessen cost, but the iPad comes standard with 16 Mg (which I find is not enough) and is expandable (at time of purchase).  After all that, iPad panache/ecosystem would generate sales much higher than the competition.

    At $199 the Nexus 7 will get buyers the same way that HP and RIMM sold their efforts…to clear mounting inventory.  This is a desperate attempt (as in loss leader) for Google to remain relevant in mobile search.  I feel confident that this strategy (which most likely will be employed by Samsung and MSFT) is going to backfire.

    I think it will only be $399 if its a retina display. And its an 8” device (7.85”) - big jump from 7” size.

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  • Posted: 16 July 2012 12:38 AM #33

    lovemyipad - 15 July 2012 07:59 PM

    [...]

    Scenario 1: Up then down.  A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes.  I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600.  Rinse and repeat.

    [...]


    Must be a typo in here somewhere.  Why not hold the puts until 600 rather than selling them at 620?

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2012 12:42 AM #34

    capablanca - 16 July 2012 03:38 AM
    lovemyipad - 15 July 2012 07:59 PM

    [...]

    Scenario 1: Up then down.  A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes.  I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600.  Rinse and repeat.

    [...]


    Must be a typo in here somewhere.  Why not hold the puts until 600 rather than selling them at 620?

    short puts, not long puts in the example.

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2012 12:59 AM #35

    capablanca - 16 July 2012 03:38 AM
    lovemyipad - 15 July 2012 07:59 PM

    [...]

    Scenario 1: Up then down.  A breakout over 620 would get capitulation from shorts and lure in longs buying higher strikes.  I’d use that opportunity to buy back the puts I sold (BTC) while I sell calls (STO) to all the eager buyers, then I’d tank the stock back to 600.  Rinse and repeat.

    [...]


    Must be a typo in here somewhere.  Why not hold the puts until 600 rather than selling them at 620?

    Capa, I’m not “me” in this example…I’m an Evil Overlord, attempting to inflict maximum pain.  As EO, I shorted puts at 592-ish.  Also bought to close the calls I shorted at 618.

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2012 01:51 AM #36

    lovemyipad - 16 July 2012 03:59 AM

    Capa, I’m not “me” in this example…I’m an Evil Overlord, attempting to inflict maximum pain.

    How do we know for sure, iPad? :innocent:

    (I guess I can’t help but see what it takes to get that first strike…)

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    Posted: 16 July 2012 02:04 AM #37

    What’s up with NASDAQ futures? CNBC says +39.25, but I think Bloomberg is using Friday’s numbers?

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    Posted: 16 July 2012 02:16 AM #38

    It used to be (in a lot of quarters) that if you failed to get on the Apple Earnings Express train well in advance… you totally missed the ride.  Last quarter there were multiple entry points even up until the end.

    My money is on EO plan #1… just not sure how high we go before we get slammed down. Though, it wouldn’t surprise me either, based on fundamental “shoulds,” that AAPL climbed from here to after earnings. 

    I’m planning to sell my Aug calls on an expected run through Wed./maybe Thurs and, if the opportunity presents, grab some sub-600 sale price shares and get back in before next Monday…  and do it again… I’m holding Oct. and Jan. calls at least until day after ER.

    The reason EO’s beat me is by playing on my deep-seated, long-term AAPL bullish convictions. I have to suspend them to become a better trader.

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    Posted: 16 July 2012 02:18 AM #39

    JDSoCal - 16 July 2012 05:04 AM

    What’s up with NASDAQ futures? CNBC says +39.25, but I think Bloomberg is using Friday’s numbers?

    They also are showing AApl at 500,,, disconcerting:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/real-time

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  • Posted: 16 July 2012 02:36 AM #40

    jjjz - 16 July 2012 05:18 AM
    JDSoCal - 16 July 2012 05:04 AM

    What’s up with NASDAQ futures? CNBC says +39.25, but I think Bloomberg is using Friday’s numbers?

    They also are showing AApl at 500,,, disconcerting:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/real-time

    The NAZ is down $5.  Pffft.  AAPL is fine despite a NAZ error.  Look for green tomorrow.

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2012 04:03 AM #41

    Mercel - 16 July 2012 05:36 AM
    jjjz - 16 July 2012 05:18 AM
    JDSoCal - 16 July 2012 05:04 AM

    What’s up with NASDAQ futures? CNBC says +39.25, but I think Bloomberg is using Friday’s numbers?

    They also are showing AApl at 500,,, disconcerting:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/real-time

    The NAZ is down $5.  Pffft.  AAPL is fine despite a NAZ error.  Look for green tomorrow.

    I love how the low price is $500, but the high is $800.  If the glitch is still there when the market opens, we’re in for the quite the ride tomorrow smile

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2012 06:36 AM #42

    Anyone else as excited/anxious that earnings are just a week away?

    Even though I am an investor with the majority of my holdings far out (aka “roni-esque type” investor) I like to do some minor trades based on short-term price action. This week and next week will present such opportunities.

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    Posted: 16 July 2012 07:22 AM #43

    DawnTreader - 16 July 2012 12:19 AM

    The Three-Strike Rule

    I just had a pleasant discussion with lovemyipad (a/k/a “the boss”). I’d like to reiterate her three-strike rule has been put in place. Upon the third violation of the AFB member civility rules swift action will be taken without additional discussion or notice.

    Just a reminder there’s no name calling in the AFB and personal attacks are not allowed.

    Thank you and have a nice day.  grin

    I suggest setting up a thread where any bounced offender has their three strikes preserved in a consolidated post. It would serve as a place to send first and second time offenders so they could discern the ‘flavor’ of what civility standards were in question.

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  • Posted: 16 July 2012 09:32 AM #44

    Citi reported - looked good
    Retail Sales - not good
    Everything on my screen turned red
    Not sure what to expect of AAPL today…thoughts given where we are this morning?

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  • Posted: 16 July 2012 10:25 AM #45

    A dozen positive articles on AAPL over weekend - and what does Melissa Lee focus on this morning? The NYT FUD about Siri needing work.  Unreal - completely unbalanced. I know we have said this a million times but I just had the need to be outraged and wanted company on it….sorry.

    And I still think she should be fixing the damn gap in her bottom teeth that makes her look toothless! ugh.

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