AAPL Q3 2012 Estimates/Earnings Discussion (Pre-Market Close)

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    Posted: 20 July 2012 01:22 AM

    Three trading days to go!

    Updated estimates and general earnings discussion are both welcome here.

    EDIT:  Reposting my current estimates (EPS based on 947M shares), which aren’t too likely to change:

    Mav - 04 July 2012 08:34 AM

    I stand at:

    32.1M iPhones
    19.9M iPads
    4.72M Macs
    6.15M iPods (like those even matter anymore raspberry)

    $41.98B revs, $12.27 EPS, GM 44.5%.  Seems a little high on revs, a little conservative in some areas such as GM, but it’s a bit of EPS insurance against a lower-than-expected iPhone number I guess.

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 05:04 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 20 July 2012 12:21 PM #1

    I LOVE seeing this. I wonder how he likes his crow? Fried or grilled? He better be really hungry come Tuesday.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/20/apple-fbr-cuts-fyq3-estimates-urges-focus-on-new-product/?mod=yahoobarrons

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 01:34 PM #2

    adamthompson32 - 20 July 2012 03:21 PM

    I LOVE seeing this. I wonder how he likes his crow? Fried or grilled? He better be really hungry come Tuesday.

    Scott should hook up with Toni for a crow feast.

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000104338&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 01:56 PM #3

    Overall, I’m sticking with my 12.30 estimate, give or take 30 cents.

    I’m foreseeing a slight increase for next quarter, unless there are more hardware product announcements with shipping before Sept 1.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 02:04 PM #4

    adamthompson32 - 20 July 2012 03:21 PM

    I LOVE seeing this. I wonder how he likes his crow? Fried or grilled? He better be really hungry come Tuesday.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/20/apple-fbr-cuts-fyq3-estimates-urges-focus-on-new-product/?mod=yahoobarrons

    When have you EVER seen Toni eat crow?  The WS analysts have zero accountability. 

    IT IS A BIG PROBLEM IN SEARCH OF A SOLUTION.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 02:05 PM #5

    Note to Mods:  I’m getting unwanted video when posting.  I hope this is unplanned.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 02:13 PM #6

    What the?

    An interstitial ad or popover?

    I’ll keep an eye out for it.  Meantime Mercel, PM Adam Christianson too to get a quicker response.  He’s the TMO web guy.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:58 PM #7

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/20/apple-bernstein-cuts-fyq3-view-q4-view-likely-light/

    Toni, Toni, Toni.

    Not to be confused with:

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 01:03 AM #8

    Mav - 21 July 2012 02:58 AM

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/20/apple-bernstein-cuts-fyq3-view-q4-view-likely-light/

    Toni, Toni, Toni.

    Not to be confused with:

    Toni resembles Alex Gauna a bit doesn’t he? (Looks, brain wattage, etc.).  Of course, Toni is assuming the iPhone 5 launches outside of FQ4 2012.  I don’t think it will; I’m betting September.  The things that irritates me is that Toni has NOTHING to back his prediction up, yet he goes on national television to satisfy his elephantine ego.

    The concern is not about iOS6 GM but building adequate supply at launch.  I’m hoping Apple announces earlier than normal to freeze those tempted by SameSung plastic. 

    Guidance will be more important than I usually give it, unless Apple really blows out FQ3 2012 expectations (I say anything above $12.30-$12.50)

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 12:36 PM #9

    Andy Zaky says buy/hold through earnings. Tony Dipstick isn’t sure. Is Tony D. related to Gene M. somehow? They both seem to think they’re bullish but they’re really very bearish.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 01:48 PM #10

    Here’s my refined EPS #.  There’s room for upside with iPads and less with iPhones. 

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 02:03 PM #11

    adamthompson32 - 21 July 2012 03:36 PM

    Andy Zaky says buy/hold through earnings. Tony Dipstick isn’t sure. Is Tony D. related to Gene M. somehow? They both seem to think they’re bullish but they’re really very bearish.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Gene’s price target is fine.  Gene and Tony D’s EPS are conservative because they’re playing a Wall Street shtick to ensure they look “smart” by recommending AAPL around earnings.  Conservative #s allow an upside beat, but I fault Tony D for going on camera just before earnings to peddle his uninformed opinion. 

    I like Gene and he’s not related to Tony D., who not only has bad EPS #s, he gives Roubini-esqe interviews with CNBC.  Sanford Bernstein is a better firm than Tony D’s representation.

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 02:46 PM #12

    I’d bet on Zaky, the extent of the bet depending on where Apple ends up just before earnings.

    605 or below - more room for something like a 30+ point jump.  Could have a repeat of last quarter but who knows

    620+, which seems unlikely - higher expectations, never mind that AAPL is still in the valuation basement.

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    Posted: 21 July 2012 02:51 PM #13

    Guess I’m still lower on GM compared to many independents at 44.5%.  Well, nothing wrong with being a little conservative.  iPad will really have a chance to “catch up” to iPhone so the effect on GM will be interesting to watch.

    I do think, though, that the 4G iPads have ridiculous, iPhone-rivaling margin, which should balance out the Wi-Fis and iPad 2 series somewhat.  And that $529 iPad + 3G could be a profit machine disguised as a cheaper iPad.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 03:12 PM #14

    Mav - 21 July 2012 05:51 PM

    Guess I’m still lower on GM compared to many independents at 44.5%.  Well, nothing wrong with being a little conservative.  iPad will really have a chance to “catch up” to iPhone so the effect on GM will be interesting to watch.

    I do think, though, that the 4G iPads have ridiculous, iPhone-rivaling margin, which should balance out the Wi-Fis and iPad 2 series somewhat.  And that $529 iPad + 3G could be a profit machine disguised as a cheaper iPad.

    I don’t believe the iPad +3G is a profit machine.  Apple is having trouble moving these as evidenced by their refurbished inventory.  A 16 GB + 3G can be had for $399.

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 03:22 PM #15

    Theoretically, then. wink

    When I can _get_ LTE the speed can be phenomenal.  iPad + 3G is the “cost-conscious” option but I think the smarter play is to save up $100 for everything else the new iPad would bring to the table.  Seems others agree.

    Thanks for the info on the refurbs and slow sales.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.