AAPL Q3 2012 Estimates/Earnings Discussion (Pre-Market Close)

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    Posted: 21 July 2012 03:54 PM #16

    huskerrx - 21 July 2012 06:12 PM

    I don’t believe the iPad +3G is a profit machine.  Apple is having trouble moving these as evidenced by their refurbished inventory.  A 16 GB + 3G can be had for $399.

    That is for the iPad 2. There are no third-generation iPad with LTE available. My guess is Apple is having no problems moving these, especially to business users.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 06:01 PM #17

    Drew Bear - 21 July 2012 06:54 PM

    That is for the iPad 2. There are no third-generation iPad with LTE available. My guess is Apple is having no problems moving these, especially to business users.

    It should be no surprise at all that the most expensive configuration of the older cheaper version is the least popular model overall—especially when it costs more than the entry level of the newer better version.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 06:40 PM #18

    Drew Bear - 21 July 2012 06:54 PM
    huskerrx - 21 July 2012 06:12 PM

    I don’t believe the iPad +3G is a profit machine.  Apple is having trouble moving these as evidenced by their refurbished inventory.  A 16 GB + 3G can be had for $399.

    That is for the iPad 2. There are no third-generation iPad with LTE available. My guess is Apple is having no problems moving these, especially to business users.

    Not sure what you are referring to as all LTE iPads are “in stock” per Apple’s website.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 07:15 PM #19

    huskerrx - 21 July 2012 09:40 PM
    Drew Bear - 21 July 2012 06:54 PM
    huskerrx - 21 July 2012 06:12 PM

    I don’t believe the iPad +3G is a profit machine.  Apple is having trouble moving these as evidenced by their refurbished inventory.  A 16 GB + 3G can be had for $399.

    That is for the iPad 2. There are no third-generation iPad with LTE available. My guess is Apple is having no problems moving these, especially to business users.

    Not sure what you are referring to as all LTE iPads are “in stock” per Apple’s website.

    No refurbs is what he was referring to.

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 08:38 PM #20

    Anyone wanna discuss guidance?

    I just saw Sacconaghi’s CNBC interview clip, and while there’s a good amount of groaners in there (seriously, modeling revs at $35.44B when Apple’s always-ignore-it/Super Sandbag Sale(tm) guidance is only a few percentage points away at $34B?!), he does have half a point when it comes to guidance.

    If the new iPhone is looking more like an October deal, rev guidance is likely to come in under the $38B Street consensus.  On the one hand, this is absolutely nothing new for the company, on the other hand, it’s difficult to say how AAPL might be affected by thoughts of iPhone being a fiscal Q1 2013 deal, even though iPad should be absolutely tearing it up in fiscal Q4 2012.

    Let’s say Apple turned in a 50M iPhone + iPad or so quarter at $40B or so in revs for fiscal Q3 2012.  30M iPhones, 20M iPads.  If iPhone sales decayed to 24M, which I think would be a pretty remarkable decline (no new iPhone in the quarter), could iPad make up the revenue difference?  A 150% YOY increase in iPad sales (~5.5M iPads to offset ~6M lost iPhones) would result in a net revenue loss of, say, around $1B.  That actually would correspond to Oppenheimer guiding fiscal Q4 2012 revs to around $33-34B.

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    Posted: 21 July 2012 10:10 PM #21

    Mav - 21 July 2012 11:38 PM

    Anyone wanna discuss guidance?

    I just saw Sacconaghi’s CNBC interview clip, and while there’s a good amount of groaners in there (seriously, modeling revs at $35.44B when Apple’s always-ignore-it/Super Sandbag Sale(tm) guidance is only a few percentage points away at $34B?!), he does have half a point when it comes to guidance.

    If the new iPhone is looking more like an October deal, rev guidance is likely to come in under the $38B Street consensus.  On the one hand, this is absolutely nothing new for the company, on the other hand, it’s difficult to say how AAPL might be affected by thoughts of iPhone being a fiscal Q1 2013 deal, even though iPad should be absolutely tearing it up in fiscal Q4 2012.

    Let’s say Apple turned in a 50M iPhone + iPad or so quarter at $40B or so in revs for fiscal Q3 2012.  30M iPhones, 20M iPads.  If iPhone sales decayed to 24M, which I think would be a pretty remarkable decline (no new iPhone in the quarter), could iPad make up the revenue difference?  A 150% YOY increase in iPad sales (~5.5M iPads to offset ~6M lost iPhones) would result in a net revenue loss of, say, around $1B.  That actually would correspond to Oppenheimer guiding fiscal Q4 2012 revs to around $33-34B.

    This quarter is going to be very interesting. A phone in September ( which I think will happen) if properly reflected in Peter’s guidance, not only gives a bump to expectations of many, but any hint in the cc about the iPad mini, the iPanel, etc…...just resets the bar for an already halacious calendar fourth quarter. Many will just jump past the September quarter in setting expectations….which could be a big mistake.  Two weeks of new iPhone sales in September, in thirty countries, will turn that dial!

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  • Posted: 21 July 2012 10:30 PM #22

    Think 10 million phones in China, according to Munster upon his return from a recent trip to the East.

    That would be a 3 million unit sequential increase

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 10:40 PM #23

    Guidance will be interesting, potentially revealing the timing of a new iPhone launch.  WIth a very strong (even blowout) FQ3, ‘12, Apple will probably play it safe with $9.25- $9.45 for FQ 4.

    If memory serves, Apple bumped EPS guidance 10% from FQ3 to FQ4 in 2011. That’s probably a base line this year.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 10:48 PM #24

    roni - 22 July 2012 01:30 AM

    Think 10 million phones in China, according to Munster upon his return from a recent trip to the East.

    That would be a 3 million unit sequential increase

    Sorry, are you talking Q3 or Q4?

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 11:04 PM #25

    greedyn00b - 22 July 2012 01:48 AM
    roni - 22 July 2012 01:30 AM

    Think 10 million phones in China, according to Munster upon his return from a recent trip to the East.

    That would be a 3 million unit sequential increase

    Sorry, are you talking Q3 or Q4?

    Q3 - ended at the end of June

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 11:07 PM #26

    If iPhone went UP sequentially this quarter - from 35.1M - there’s not enough weeklies in the world we can buy for what’ll happen next.  LOL  :D

    NO ONE is expecting that, to my knowledge.  That would be a truly amazing earnings surprise.

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  • Posted: 21 July 2012 11:08 PM #27

    It would be no surprise if the iPhone in China went up sequentially.  That is expected.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 11:12 PM #28

    Mav - 22 July 2012 02:07 AM

    If iPhone went UP sequentially this quarter - from 35.1M - there’s not enough weeklies in the world we can buy for what’ll happen next.  LOL  :D

    NO ONE is expecting that, to my knowledge.  That would be a truly amazing earnings surprise.

    That’s because sell-through last quarter was just under 32.5 million units. The balance was added to channels supply. No one is forecasting a sequential gain in unit sales due in part to the channel supply increase. I don’t expect Apple to have added to channel supply in the quarter.

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 11:28 PM #29

    Me neither!  That’s why I’m at 32.1M iPhones.  Higher than many, but still respecting the (IMHO, pretty much guaranteed) likelihood of sequential decline.

    [ Edited: 21 July 2012 11:45 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 12:56 AM #30

    Mav - 22 July 2012 02:28 AM

    Me neither!  That’s why I’m at 32.1M iPhones.  Higher than many, but still respecting the (IMHO, pretty much guaranteed) likelihood of sequential decline.

    Don’t forget that China Telecom launched the 4s on March 9, so that should help the June quarter.

    Too, this year you can add more new Blackberry users and SameSung put many of its customers on ice with announcing the Galaxy III ahead of time.

    Enterprise could be the difference, in addition to the international growth.

    Incidentally, I spoke tonight with my ATT contact, and he said the sales of Galaxy III have dropped considerably since 2 weeks ago.

    I’m at 31M and sticking to it.