AAPL Q3 2012 Estimates/Earnings Discussion (Pre-Market Close)

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 01:04 AM #31

    Somehow, I’m not surprised.  It’s not really Samsung’s “fault” on this particular score - it appears to be attempting to adopt a smartphone strategy that Apple pioneered, and it’s against EVERY OTHER handset vendor’s DNA to invest in one flagship device every year - with nothing else new until the next flagship the following year.  It’s probably at least part of the reason why Samsung can’t seem to unify, well, parts in one product (screens, SoCs with wildly varying performance specs - see Exynos quad-core vs. Qualcomm dual-core in the S III).

    The difficulty of such a strategy shift can’t be underestimated.  Combine that with Apple about to seriously increase its competitiveness with the next iPhone, and the year after that likely having two seriously fast, LTE-capable, available-on-every-carrier-of-consequence as a one-two punch in its lineup, and it’s fair to say that the smartphone wars are far from over.

    Going back to fiscal Q3, I almost expect to be high on iPhone but I think I see something in China/Asia/those iPhone markets that only recently got the 4S.  Is this a truly different third quarter of iPhone life cycle from all the others before it?  We’ll see in less than three days.

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 01:08 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 01:08 AM #32

    Mercel - 22 July 2012 03:56 AM

    I’m at 31M and sticking to it.

    And a mighty fine estimate it is.  grin

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 01:12 AM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 01:09 AM #33

    I don’t really want to know what you think of my helium-filled 32.1M number.  LOL  But since I’m posting this, I might as well know. :D

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 01:13 AM #34

    Mav - 22 July 2012 04:09 AM

    I don’t really want to know what you think of my helium-filled 32.1M number.  LOL  But since I’m posting this, I might as well know. :D

    It’s a thoughtful number.  :innocent:

         
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    Posted: 23 July 2012 01:38 PM #35

    Some helium for Mav.

    Apple bears beware: China 3G subs grew 118% from 2011

    Interestingly, China Mobile’s (CHL) share of the country’s 3G market actually fell year over year. China Mobile is the world’s largest telephone company, but as White notes, it “is the only major carrier in China that does not have a relationship with Apple to sell the iPhone and we believe this is showing up in the company’s [monthly] 3G subscriber growth.”

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/23/apple-bears-beware-china-3g-subs-grew-118-from-2011/?source=yahoo_quote

         
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 09:08 PM #36

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    [ Edited: 23 July 2012 09:16 PM by adamthompson32 ]      
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    Posted: 23 July 2012 09:48 PM #37

    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    Quarter to quarter iPhone sales increase by more than 3%

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  • Posted: 23 July 2012 10:08 PM #38

    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    Over $13.00 EPS.

         
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 10:10 PM #39

    qualitywte - 24 July 2012 01:08 AM
    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    Over $13.00 EPS.

    One man’s longshot is another man’s even money. I am at 50/50 on this.

         
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 10:12 PM #40

    Red Shirted Ensign - 24 July 2012 12:48 AM
    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    Quarter to quarter iPhone sales increase by more than 3%

    Love it. I hope you’re wrong though as I think it would mean iPad is going to be embarrassingly low since total revenue guidance called for “only” a 5% sequential increase. And since TC guided iPhone down but iPad up big I can’t see it happening at all. Oh well, that’s the name of this game and I appreciate you playing!!

         
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 10:24 PM #41

    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 01:10 AM
    qualitywte - 24 July 2012 01:08 AM
    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    Over $13.00 EPS.

    One man’s longshot is another man’s even money. I am at 50/50 on this.

    Ok, I raise it to $13.50

         
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    Posted: 23 July 2012 11:01 PM #42

    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    A collapse in Mac sales to under 3.5 million units (caused by cannibalisation by way of massive uptake of iPads at 24 million).

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  • Posted: 23 July 2012 11:05 PM #43

    Burgess - 24 July 2012 02:01 AM
    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    A collapse in Mac sales to under 3.5 million units (caused by cannibalisation by way of massive uptake of iPads at 24 million).

    I would welcome this with open arms! I think the stock would be up $100 if this happens because it shows the world how huge iPad will be…and how soon it will get there.

         
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 11:19 PM #44

    Burgess - 24 July 2012 02:01 AM
    adamthompson32 - 24 July 2012 12:08 AM

    Everyone should come up with one wild prediction for tomorrow. Here is mine (I don’t count 20M+ iPads as wild, but you might):

    gross margin will be 47.0%+

    Edited to add that by “wild” I mean something that has a <10% chance of occurring in your opinion.

    A collapse in Mac sales to under 3.5 million units (caused by cannibalisation by way of massive uptake of iPads at 24 million).

    Interesting, could they produce that many?

         
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    Posted: 23 July 2012 11:25 PM #45

    Sure they could.

    I don’t think they will, though.  Wait until next quarter to be thinking around 25M.  And then, if Apple does sell that many in fiscal Q4 2012, dare to dream of a 30M+ (thirty frickin’ million?!) iPad holiday quarter.  And if YOY growth doesn’t slow down all that much, 30M could be a very conservative number.

    Oh, and that’s WITHOUT an iPad mini.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.