Horace and Gene Munster

  • Posted: 20 July 2012 12:29 PM

    Highly recommended.

    http://fora.tv/2012/07/17/Future_of_Apple

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 01:57 PM #1

    adamthompson32 - 20 July 2012 03:29 PM

    Highly recommended.

    http://fora.tv/2012/07/17/Future_of_Apple

    Thanks for posting the link, Adam. I watched a 4 min. excerpt a couple of days ago and was looking for the full version. Horace presented very well in that short clip. I hope the mainstream media starts to interview him more frequently.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 01:12 AM #2

    Did you learn anything?  I must be spending too much time watching Apple I guess.

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 01:36 AM #3

    Gene Munster and recommended…?  AT, is that really you…?

    Most of the attendees were Mac or dual users from what I could make out from the indistinct audio…not a surprise in some ways, but still interesting.

    Not being as dialed in as Mercel, sadly, I’ll give this vid a quick watch and maybe give some impressions.

    [ Edited: 21 July 2012 01:44 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 21 July 2012 02:07 AM #4

    I laughed every time Munster spoke. He’s a dumb guy who thinks he’s smart. Don’t get me wrong, he’s smarter than the average person but he thinks he’s a genius when it comes to apple and he’s really a complete idiot. It’s sad actually.

    Better, Mav?

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 02:15 AM #5

    That’s more like it. rolleyes

    Updating with a few comments so I don’t forget…

    11:40ish - Dediu - Apple must disrupt iPhone or face a crisis in a few years.  Disagree, and it’s a bit too…“cute” an analysis?  I get the continuous disruption theory, but Dediu seems to be saying the very idea of iPhone must be somehow replaced or disrupted. 

    Well, are pocketable computers with on-demand telephony going anywhere in 5, 10, 20 years?  I’m thinking…no.  Thin client tried and failed.  Now, the client CAN be impossibly thin raspberry, but the client itself must remain robust.  I don’t see us taking pictures through our *cough* glasses or cybernetic optics *shiver*, and I don’t see us playing games or getting directions on a virtual or foldable screen where we swipe through the air.  Even if voice service fades, VOIP is here to stay in some form.  So without Dediu explaining how Apple has to disrupt the connected pocket computer, it’s more clever sound bite than deep thought, in my admittedly uneducated opinion.

    14:00ish - Strongly disagree with Dediu about skimming strategy.  It’s best-of-breed, insanely crafted products (see:  iPhone 4/4S) building up as fast as they possibly can with those product/quality goals in mind.  It’s the responsible way to grow at a ridiculous speed.  C’mon, 0 (2007) to probably well over 100M (FY ‘12) in around 5 years is no small feat.  Leaving money on the table is imprecise.  Laser focus is a better description, I’d say, and you can’t really argue with the results.

    [ Edited: 21 July 2012 02:31 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 21 July 2012 03:27 AM #6

    You guys are a tough crowd. I’m not saying Munster or Horace are perfect, but I think they fielded the questions better than most so-called analysts. I’d much rather hear these two than many of the numbskulls that show up too frequently on various media outlets.

    “A few years” is too short for any Apple crisis to appear, but I do think Apple is already working on something beyond a touchscreen smartphone. Siri is the first step towards that next disruption.

    I think the skimming strategy is the way to go. Skim the cream (highest profits) first, then go for the lower profit products later. I don’t think Apple leaves money on the table; they leave nickels & dimes on the floor. In the case of the tablet market, they’re leaving pennies. And in a few months they might be sweeping those up, too.

    I agree Horace got sucked into trying too hard to not appear as an Apple apologist on that one. He’s well versed on the concept of profit share, so he could’ve taken that tact rather than disparaging the skimming strategy.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 03:57 AM #7

    Munster is a moron. 20% growth the next 3 years? And he’s bullish apple? That doesn’t make sense. 20% means iPhone is in crisis right now. And so is iPad. What a dumbass.

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 04:08 AM #8

    adamthompson32 - 21 July 2012 06:57 AM

    Munster is a moron. 20% growth the next 3 years? And he’s bullish apple? That doesn’t make sense. 20% means iPhone is in crisis right now. And so is iPad. What a dumbass.

    Highly recommended on one end, dumb ass on the other.  Oh, the intrigue of it all. smile

    Oh and BTW, with specific regard to GM’s 20%, I think he is 11,000% wrong.  :-D

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 05:43 AM #9

    madmaxroi - 21 July 2012 07:08 AM
    adamthompson32 - 21 July 2012 06:57 AM

    Munster is a moron. 20% growth the next 3 years? And he’s bullish apple? That doesn’t make sense. 20% means iPhone is in crisis right now. And so is iPad. What a dumbass.

    Highly recommended on one end, dumb ass on the other.  Oh, the intrigue of it all. smile

    Oh and BTW, with specific regard to GM’s 20%, I think he is 11,000% wrong.  :-D

    I think he’s 10,980% wrong.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2012 04:14 PM #10

    I just watched the video and I enjoyed it.

    What did you think of Gene’s statement about sequential iPhone growth in China?

         
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    Posted: 21 July 2012 10:24 PM #11

    roni - 21 July 2012 07:14 PM

    I just watched the video and I enjoyed it.

    What did you think of Gene’s statement about sequential iPhone growth in China?

    I’m under the impression we will be “WOW’d”  Much like the sequential growth we experienced when iPhone was initially launched state-side…...  but bigger and faster for China.  Reasoning being, it’s a bigger market and iPhone has already proven itself.  There was an element of feeling it out when it was initially released here.  That uncertainty has long since passed.  For China, it’s a matter of when can I get my hands on one, not should I…..  the flood gate have been opened

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  • Posted: 21 July 2012 11:11 PM #12

    Gene’s comment about Apple making an error in not partnering with both ATT and Verizon seems to ignore that at the outset neither of those all powerful service providers were interested in Apple’s phone. My recollection is that pretty much all the tellcoms regarded them as arrogant for making demands like unlimited data and suchlike. The iPhone only ended up at ATT because they bought out Cingular that Apple did the exclusive with and presumably had to honour its contract with Apple. It is so easy to forget the power the tellcoms wielded over the manufacturers forcing them to drop features like photo sharing and free ringtones that cut into revenue streams.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 01:10 AM #13

    sideliner - 22 July 2012 02:11 AM

    Gene’s comment about Apple making an error in not partnering with both ATT and Verizon seems to ignore that at the outset neither of those all powerful service providers were interested in Apple’s phone…

    Agreed. It’s one of two occasions when SJ was able with great skill to release a market from the vice like grip of incumbents.

    In this case, the industry was all about churn: carriers almost exclusively had to take new subscribers from another carrier. To ensure competition, governments had set up multiple carriers.  By accepting an exclusive, ATT, O2 etc could believe that either iPhone would be unsuccessful (in which case no harm done), or they would gain a powerful competitive advantage and steal many subscribers from their competitors. As an industry, one carrier gave away control, and the others had no choice but to follow.

    In the case of the iTunes store, the music biz knew they had a problem which they weren’t solving, and Apple were proposing an alternative solution. I believe the music biz thought that the iTunes store could be free research for them, because being Mac only,  Firewire-only it seemed easily contained. If the store was successful, they could get the PC market tied up more quickly than Apple, simply by adopting Apple’s approach in their existing download offerings.

    We don’t yet know how Apple will hollow out the TV and retail banking industries, but I wouldn’t bet against them, even without SJ.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 01:26 AM #14

    If anything the competition should be more scared than ever.  It’s “clear” these were lesser priorities of Steve’s - “making products we’d want to use ourselves” was (and is) Priority One.  iPod before the music store, iPhone before the app store, etc.

    Getting into “pedestrian” industries like TV (granted, there was that giant hint from SJ in the bio) and banking/transactions kind of sounds like something a more “mature” Apple, flush with resources and inherently a little more freedom of thought and focus, would do.  But Apple seems to be as vital and innovative as ever.  Passbook is making tons of companies absolutely cringe right now at what could be.

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 02:17 AM #15

    First off, I want to make clear that I respect Dediu very much as a commentator and applaud his great success.  But like Drew said, it seems like he “overcorrected” for the presentation. 

    Watching the rest of that video:

    - 3-year product roadmap?  That’s it, Munster?  Realllly.

    - Self-disruption theme that Dediu keeps repeating is imprecise.  The take anywhere pocketable computer and ultraportable touch-type computer are brand-new paradigms.  They won’t go anywhere anytime soon.  To say Apple must “kill the iPhone” or “kill the iPad” is too cute.  Or maybe too packaged for a less-dialed-into-Apple audience.  I have to assume he means, but didn’t actually say, Apple must disrupt old paradigms to move its products forward.  Dediu surely can’t overlook that Apple hasn’t “killed the Mac” - it’s dragged the entire PC industry forward.  Fearless incremental revolution, I think, is the true magic, the secret sauce, the fuel that sustains the Apple we know.  The iPod mini - that Poster Child for self-disruption - didn’t really die, after all.  It was reborn as something different, improved, evolved, though really quite similar (just smaller).  You see something like that with the Retina MacBook Pro.

    - “Mac business isn’t doing that great”, Munster?  Sure.  On the same point, Mac on the backburner, Dediu?  Yes to iMac and Mac Pro.  No on OS iteration - it’s accelerating again!  (No also on the key MacBook family.)

    - Munster’s market cap theory seems to ignore simple supply and demand.  Good old-fashioned outside money can also raise the market cap of a stock.  New buyers and experienced traders/institutions buying in at higher prices.

    - Those audience questions about Siri not being ready (well yes it’s a beta) miss the mark.  For one, not sure if they’ve really tried using Siri - for all its imperfections I use Siri regularly and find it nets out as highly useful even for small tasks like reminders and timers.  For another, you can’t bash Siri and NOT bash the other voice contenders, which at minimum don’t surpass Siri overall.  And really, who expects perfection from freaking voice recognition?  If anyone has the ability to make voice recognition/AI better, it’s Apple.  (And Munster, focused, clearer speech helps Siri accuracy, y’know.)

    - Totally agree with Lashinsky (despite this aura of I-know-more-about-Apple-than-anyone smugness that might not be there) on iPhone’s life to date.  Look, even if you covered Verizon and AT&T with iPhone, there’s STILL all the other handset vendors that have collectively outsold Apple from Day One.  You can only ramp from zero so fast.  (And c’mon Dediu…skimming strategy, again?  Your Nokia past is showing.  Mac is an ongoing skimming strategy then, as is iPad.)

    - That Nuance guy in the audience had it right.  Disagree on Siri API, though.

    - That competition question was naive or ill-considered.  And I was kinda disappointed with the panel’s comments.  Apple was born in a dense forest of competition.  As have all of its products when first introduced.  Apple doesn’t react to the competition, but the competition is always in the back of its mind.  It’s a fine nuance.  Let’s not forget about iPod’s answer(s) to the flash-based MP3 player.  iPod video’s answer to the PMP (and the later response with iPod touch).  iPhone’s answer to the stylus smartphone/PDA.  iPad’s answer to the tablet/netbook.  Apple television will be a reaction of sorts to Google TV, possibly a later reaction to the DVR, and an incredibly late “reaction” to WebTV!  It’s not like Apple hasn’t had “reactions” to competition throughout the SJ era…oh yeah, I forgot about MacBook Air, too, kind of a big one.  It’s how Apple enters the field…that’s what you have to evaluate.

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 03:05 AM by Mav ]

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