Weekend Updates

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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:08 PM

    I need a drink!  Who else?

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 07:25 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:09 PM #1

    lovemyipad - 20 July 2012 08:08 PM

    I need a drink!  Who else?

    Ughhh, I need at least two, thank you.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 05:10 PM #2

    Are you buying?  I’ll bring the cardboard sign to ensure pity is extended.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:13 PM #3

    By “cold one”, I need an ice pack for this AAPL-induced headache.

    The good news is even if AAPL DID fall on its face with a Red October-esque “light” quarter as in Q4 2011, guidance would seem to point to a revs number of $39B at the very worst.  So even under an extremely pessimistic forecast, Apple should beat the Street consensus handily (for whatever that’s worth in the era of unaccountable, shadowy/stupid whisper numbers).

    Personally, I think even with a so-called “meh” quarter, Apple could easily meet my early, conservative projection of $40.8B revs / $11.21 EPS from late April.

    [ Edited: 20 July 2012 05:19 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:20 PM #4

    Going into Monday, I feel a bit frozen.

    Unhedge those Aug calls?  Wait for further downside?  Scale into new options positions?

    Instinct, possibly aided, more likely addled LOL by my laughably incomplete understanding of technicals, tells me not to catch the falling knife until late Monday or Tuesday, depending on how the charts pan out.

    [ Edited: 20 July 2012 05:24 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:22 PM #5

    lovemyipad - 20 July 2012 08:08 PM

    I need a drink!  Who else?

    I started at 3:30.

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    Bought and Held

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:31 PM #6

    Your thoughts are illustrative of the confidence the marker makers take from those holding options.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:35 PM #7

    Nagrani, you’ve been speaking a bit cryptically lately.  Are you implying I’m part of a problem?

    For the record, I’m been on record as being a little concerned with AAPL lagging all week.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:40 PM #8

    Nagrani - 20 July 2012 08:31 PM

    Your thoughts are illustrative of the confidence the marker makers take from those holding options.

    EVIL OVERLORDS!!! :D

    Oh, but I have plenty of confidence.  It’s my money that’s going to run short soon… wink

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:44 PM #9

    Mav, not at all sir. You are part of the fuel that keeps me going.  Look, apple is going to post on Wed the daughter of all blowouts.  Expectations are lowered and the beat is going to be just that - a beating.  The EO are so good at swinging the price that it’s not really that hard to see the recent price action in apple.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 05:44 PM #10

    This setup is going to be nice. 10%+ pop next week.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:47 PM #11

    It’s disgusting, but kind of predictable with hindsight in a sick and twisted way.

    550 + AAPL multiple adjustment OR earnings gap-up amount from Q2 2012 results.  550 being, well, you remember from around three months ago.  That other number being around 50.

    I don’t wanna see this again NEXT quarter, but I’m making contingency plans.  If things play about around how I expect them to, the “low target” will be 640-650 or so around October, depending of course on new iPhone and a possible new iPad mini/nano.

    [ Edited: 20 July 2012 05:57 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 05:52 PM #12

    Tuesday planning will be hella fun this weekend.  I just have to figure out how much risk I’m comfortable with.

    Quick-and-easy strategies for me include unhedging my Aug calls at some point and praying, or being even more insane and buying weekly options either as calls or a BCS of some sort (long calls close to the money to be safe), with only a little capital reserved for hyper-insane speculation like OTM Jul 27 calls or BCSes.  Whatever I do, if I do trade earnings I’ll force myself to take the “lower capital outlay at higher risk” approach.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 06:02 PM #13

    Moved from Intraday for Weekend discussion:

    Nevyn - 20 July 2012 08:07 PM
    lovemyipad - 20 July 2012 08:01 PM

    This is getting old.  I just bought more OCT’12 650s @ 17.00

    Me too.

    Scaling in or more aggressive?

    I’m being more conservative for the moment, but it feels like AAPL could retest 600 or below by Tuesday, particularly if the FUD wave continues.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 06:07 PM #14

    Article about the sawtooth or stairstep patterns in AAPL and the other stocks yesterday, think how much extra work this computer mistake made for the EO today…

    They gotta outlaw this algorithmic stuff..
    And weeklies…


    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/20/stocks-hedging-options-idUSL2E8IKCZ320120720?feedType=RSS&feedName=cyclicalConsumerGoodsSector&rpc=43

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 06:13 PM #15

    Mav - 20 July 2012 09:00 PM

    Scaling in or more aggressive?

    I’m being more conservative for the moment, but it feels like AAPL could retest 600 or below by Tuesday, particularly if the FUD wave continues.

    Well, I’ll tell you what I did, but I’m not holding it up as any model of good trading.  In fact, seeing as I allowed emotion (irritation) to play a part, I should hold this up as a model of BAD trading, even if it works out.  See, I wasn’t *entirely* objective in placing these trades…I was kinda flipping the bird to the EOs…as if they care about little ole me! :D

    I bought next week’s weeklies: 645/650 bull spreads @ .70

    Um, that wasn’t the REALLY bad part…I, um, kinda sorta also bought, er, well..quite a few, ah…  weekly 665/670 bull spreads @ .20   smile


    EDIT: Mercel and JD, I know, I *know*!!!  I went to the dark side!!!  I’m part of the problem now, not the solution!!!  Believe me, I know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    [ Edited: 20 July 2012 06:18 PM by lovemyipad ]