Weekend Updates

  • Posted: 20 July 2012 09:40 PM #31

    Mav - 20 July 2012 08:13 PM

    The good news is even if AAPL DID fall on its face with a Red October-esque “light” quarter as in Q4 2011, guidance would seem to point to a revs number of $39B at the very worst.  So even under an extremely pessimistic forecast, Apple should beat the Street consensus handily (for whatever that’s worth in the era of unaccountable, shadowy/stupid whisper numbers).

    Personally, I think even with a so-called “meh” quarter, Apple could easily meet my early, conservative projection of $40.8B revs / $11.21 EPS from late April.

    I’ve mentioned this before, but it bares repeating: Light volume with a morbid PPS has signaled Institutional apathy towards Apple’s earnings in the past.  This current “run up” is by far the clearest indication that the Institutions are thinking this way, of all prior periods.

    Unlike October 2011, a light earnings report is not going to catch Institutional investors off guard this time around.  In keeping with TCs oft repeated statement that iPhone sales would be down sequentially, I think Institutional expectations have a low number baked in.  Unless Apple surprises, any short term pop we get will come from those that don’t pay attention.  Longer term it will be TC’s comments/guidance that will fuel AAPL.

    Still, looking at the quarters I believe Apple has missed numbers in the past (including Oct 2011), a total of six, AAPL popped from pre-earnings Friday intraday low 4.41% (on average) to day after earnings intraday high.  That intraday high has not held through Weekly expiry for any of those 6 periods.

    I have revised my FQ4/2012 Guidance forecast to $9.25.  Preliminarily, I believe that translates to actual EPS of $13.85.

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  • Posted: 20 July 2012 10:27 PM #32

    This quarter’s earnings are turning out to be an immense struggle for me.  Even the indies are somewhat low…which I ask myself, is everyone right and the numbers will come in low or will AAPL blow through them.  I really am very uncertain this time around…moreso because of the macro picture and how it may affect AAPL sales.  On the other hand, the guidance will be key. Damn….I don’t like sitting on the fence like this.  I’m leaning long right now and will be into earnings but struggling with HOW long. 

    Gregg - is there anything you see that signals that they won’t beat their internal numbers?

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  • Posted: 20 July 2012 10:30 PM #33

    Despite the disappointing week I’m holding firm. Remember to focus on the facts:

    - Verizon iPhone #‘s were strong, indicating 30m+ total
    - iPhone 4S was in the 3rd quarter of its life, not the FIFTH like the 4 in Q4’11
    - TC guidance implied 20m+ iPads, and the growth trend supports 22m. Assume the trend holds
    - EPS guidance was a few cents ABOVE where they guided Q211, implying confidence in a $12+ result

    I have no fear of a miss, I’m 95% confident of $12+. I have a little more fear around what WS would say about weak Q4 guidance, but at $600 this close to earnings I’ll be damned if I’m going to be scared out of the game now by FUD and EO shenanigans.

    My 2c.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 10:41 PM #34

    You need to check your math if you see AAPL at $540 in September.  A BUNCH has to go wrong to relegate AAPL to that price.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 10:48 PM #35

    Mav - 21 July 2012 01:41 AM

    You need to check your math if you see AAPL at $540 in September.  A BUNCH has to go wrong to relegate AAPL to that price.

    You are right.

    First my 11.75 would have to happen.

    Secondly they guide very low confirming an Oct launch.

    Thirdly the world economy cont to contract and we have some crisis with Iran.

    On the flip side if we get Gregg’s 12.56 or Nick from Braeburn Group of 13.04.

    And guidance is strong indicating a early Sept launch.

    Then I would not be shocked to see $750 in two months.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 11:12 PM #36

    Mav - 21 July 2012 01:41 AM

    You need to check your math if you see AAPL at $540 in September.  A BUNCH has to go wrong to relegate AAPL to that price.

    Spongie is listening too much to Toni the Tool:

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:16 PM #37

    Anything is possible - given certain conditions. 

    There’s a place for bears, but lay out the case first like any principled forecaster.  So omacvi did give a reasonable case for $540 - IF that kind of news all hits at once. 

    It’s kind of a big if to me personally, but I’m a Bull (regular).

    [ Edited: 20 July 2012 11:21 PM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:17 PM #38

    Mercel - 21 July 2012 02:12 AM
    Mav - 21 July 2012 01:41 AM

    You need to check your math if you see AAPL at $540 in September.  A BUNCH has to go wrong to relegate AAPL to that price.

    Spongie is listening too much to Toni the Tool:

    He is now my buddy.smile

    Actually I listened to the CNBC interview and I agree with his arguments.

    For a long term investor in the stock not options, this quarter or next are not big deals .

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 11:20 PM #39

    omacvi - 21 July 2012 02:17 AM
    Mercel - 21 July 2012 02:12 AM
    Mav - 21 July 2012 01:41 AM

    You need to check your math if you see AAPL at $540 in September.  A BUNCH has to go wrong to relegate AAPL to that price.

    Spongie is listening too much to Toni the Tool:

    He is now my buddy.smile

    Actually I listened to the CNBC interview and I agree with his arguments.

    For a long term investor in the stock not options, this quarter or next are not big deals .

    Well, you obviously are not paying attention to his track record.  He’s a broken clock that isn’t even right twice a day.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:20 PM #40

    If Toni keeps lowballing like he has, someone needs to Photoshop him into a mechanic’s outfit complete with name patch.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2012 11:23 PM #41

    Mav - 21 July 2012 02:20 AM

    If Toni keeps lowballing like he has, someone needs to Photoshop him into a mechanic’s outfit complete with name patch.

    I might take u up on that one.  :-D

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:36 PM #42

    Looking at charts…  OMG, why didn’t we ALL short CMG?!?!?!?!  Holy schmoly!

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:40 PM #43

    Yes Toni has been wrong many times.  I won’t hold that against him.

    I have new respect for him because he was the first to push for dividend with an open letter to Apple.

    But here is why I think he may be right.


    Last year as soon as the public realized that the iPhone would be delayed and come out in Oct, sales fell off a cliff.  Yes I know this phone is not as long, but with so many wanting it, I think enough will wait it out 2 more months.  That would explain low guidance.  For this quarter I think Verizon confirmed that we will have small growth increase then usual.

    Secondly everyone keeps counting on China to make up for growth in the rest of the world in regards all Apple products.  I agree with him that the iPad was not available in China until this week and that will impact iPad growth.

    The iPad was not available in 24 hours until June.  The supply constraint will give us a number close to 20 million ( mine is 18 million)  and not 24-26 like some of the ultra bulls.

    I don’t think anyone knows where the stock will go after a lower then usual quarter.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:50 PM #44

    Mercel - 21 July 2012 02:23 AM
    Mav - 21 July 2012 02:20 AM

    If Toni keeps lowballing like he has, someone needs to Photoshop him into a mechanic’s outfit complete with name patch.

    I might take u up on that one.  :-D

    I was wondering if one of you might.

    (Misspellings happen all the time.)

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2012 11:52 PM #45

    lovemyipad - 21 July 2012 02:36 AM

    Looking at charts…  OMG, why didn’t we ALL short CMG?!?!?!?!  Holy schmoly!

    I dunno.  Why didn’t we? :D

    Oh well.  Congrats to those brave shorts.  They made off like friggin’ champs.

    And they can buy TONS of these from Chipotle now:

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.