Weekend Updates

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 12:19 AM #76

    Mav, excellent points.  So, AUG’12 or JAN’13.  Pick.

    I am probably going to want bear spreads for SEP’12 at some point…

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 12:23 AM #77

    BOTH!

    Jan 13s are already a part of my core trades.  I’m still debating whether I’ll be doing any gambling for earnings.  Price point will be absolutely key in setting my agenda.  To stay at around 70% invested or turn up that risk dial?  Decisions, decisions…

    (Yes, I could finance riskier trades with, say, core trade proceeds.  Not inclined to do that, though.)

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 12:26 AM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 12:26 AM #78

    Well, in a twisted way, the less we pop before earnings, the increased probability of popping on earnings, so from a gambling perspective….we’ll get a better sense of the odds Monday and Tuesday.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 12:40 AM #79

    Per instruction in defense of someone breaking the only board rule, I have changed my sig.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 12:49 AM #80

    DawnTreader - 16 July 2012 12:20 AM

    The Three-Strike Rule

    I just had a pleasant discussion with lovemyipad (a/k/a “the boss”). I’d like to reiterate her three-strike rule has been put in place. Upon the third violation of the AFB member civility rules swift action will be taken without additional discussion or notice.

    Just a reminder there’s no name calling in the AFB and personal attacks are not allowed.

    Thank you and have a nice day grin

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 01:11 AM #81

    lovemyipad - 22 July 2012 03:49 AM
    DawnTreader - 16 July 2012 12:20 AM

    The Three-Strike Rule

    I just had a pleasant discussion with lovemyipad (a/k/a “the boss”). I’d like to reiterate her three-strike rule has been put in place. Upon the third violation of the AFB member civility rules swift action will be taken without additional discussion or notice.

    Just a reminder there’s no name calling in the AFB and personal attacks are not allowed.

    Thank you and have a nice day grin

    I’d like to reiterate the point first made on the 15th. Don’t ignore lovey’s warnings. lovey and I communicate frequently and I’m no more than an email away.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 01:29 AM #82

    IV is so CRAZY low that I’m considering doing a Casino Royal play with some unhedged July 28s @550. These pups closed Friday with about a $2 premium. That’s insane!

      cheers
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 01:32 AM #83

    Well, they _are_ pretty safely in the money.  Heck, even the Aug 12 equivalents only carry $5-6 of time premium.

    But you’re right, with VXAPL at around 33 it’s not too expensive a time to pick up calls relative to some previous just-before-earnings periods.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 08:13 AM #84

    Here is a very abbreviated version of the Fortune Sacconaghi/Zaky/Munster/Dediu commentary from the interview last week.  I’m feeling so much better about going into earnings: 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/

    Signature

    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 10:39 AM #85

    Happy start of earnings week!

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 10:51 AM #86

    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 11:13 AM

    Here is a very abbreviated version of the Fortune Sacconaghi/Zaky/Munster/Dediu commentary from the interview last week.  I’m feeling so much better about going into earnings: 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/

    Yes, blowout coming. but what’s new? We need to just not let the media affect our psyche. They are all lemmings and Apple’s guidance suggests $13.00 EPS. That was issued 2 months ago. Did the world collapse since then? No. $12.00+ is guaranteed based on guidance. This will be just one more homerun for Apple.

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 01:27 PM by adamthompson32 ]      
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 11:24 AM #87

    adamthompson32 - 22 July 2012 01:51 PM
    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 11:13 AM

    Here is a very abbreviated version of the Fortune Sacconaghi/Zaky/Munster/Dediu commentary from the interview last week.  I’m feeling so much better about going into earnings: 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/

    Yes, blowout coming. but what’s new? We need to just not let the media affect our psyche. They are all lemmings and Apple’s guidance suggests $13.00 EPS. That WS issued 2 months ago. Did the world collapse since then? No. $12.00+ is guaranteed based on guidance. This will be just one more homerun for Apple.

    By the same reasoning, Apple guided FQ4 2011 to break $8, and we know how that turned out.  Guidance is never any kind of guarantee.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 11:53 AM #88

    Mercel - 22 July 2012 02:24 PM
    adamthompson32 - 22 July 2012 01:51 PM
    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 11:13 AM

    Here is a very abbreviated version of the Fortune Sacconaghi/Zaky/Munster/Dediu commentary from the interview last week.  I’m feeling so much better about going into earnings: 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/

    Yes, blowout coming. but what’s new? We need to just not let the media affect our psyche. They are all lemmings and Apple’s guidance suggests $13.00 EPS. That WS issued 2 months ago. Did the world collapse since then? No. $12.00+ is guaranteed based on guidance. This will be just one more homerun for Apple.

    By the same reasoning, Apple guided FQ4 2011 to break $8, and we know how that turned out.  Guidance is never any kind of guarantee.

    but the reason for the miss was analyst expectations were higher than ever.  if you applied that quarter’s analyst expectation ‘multiple’ over guidance to every other recent quarter, it would have been a miss in almost all cases.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 12:08 PM #89

    Mercel - 22 July 2012 02:24 PM

    By the same reasoning, Apple guided FQ4 2011 to break $8, and we know how that turned out.  Guidance is never any kind of guarantee.

    True, but I think (don’t we wish we could *know*), that the iPhone 4S launch was delayed longer than they expected, and the drop-off in iPhone 4 sales was sharper than they expected, at least partly because of that.

    Can anybody think of unforeseen events like that which would drag down this quarter? The delay in iPad 3 release in China comes to mind, but it seems like by the time Q3 guidance was given, they would have known what they were dealing with. I can’t think of anything…

    At any rate, we know for certain that in Q4 2011 the extent of the iPhone 4 sales drop caught WS by surprise. We can reasonably expect that the 3rd- quarter of iPhone 4S sales will not drop off anything near as much as the 5th+ quarter of iPhone 4 sales. Yet WS seems to be anticipating a larger dropoff in sales now than then. That’s a bigger drop for *Q3* now than *Q4* then, and I can really think of no reason at all that Q3 now should be comparable to Q4 then.

    Also remember that in Q4 2011, WS consensus, for whatever reason, wound up unusually high above Apple’s guidance.

    And finally, if we go by Adam’s theory that they guide below their real expectation by a set %, after Q4 2011 they seem to have shifted to be even more conservative. So by the theory, the actually were not guiding to $8 in Q4 2011…

    Anybody get Peter Oppenheimer’s cell #? Let’s give him a ring and ask wink

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 12:13 PM by greedyn00b ]      
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 01:04 PM #90

    Mercel - 22 July 2012 02:24 PM
    adamthompson32 - 22 July 2012 01:51 PM
    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 11:13 AM

    Here is a very abbreviated version of the Fortune Sacconaghi/Zaky/Munster/Dediu commentary from the interview last week.  I’m feeling so much better about going into earnings: 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/

    Yes, blowout coming. but what’s new? We need to just not let the media affect our psyche. They are all lemmings and Apple’s guidance suggests $13.00 EPS. That WS issued 2 months ago. Did the world collapse since then? No. $12.00+ is guaranteed based on guidance. This will be just one more homerun for Apple.

    By the same reasoning, Apple guided FQ4 2011 to break $8, and we know how that turned out.  Guidance is never any kind of guarantee.

    I agree with Adam that we are most likely going to be above 12 this quarter.  My estimate is 11.75 because I think Macs are hurt by overall economy, with iPhones people are waiting, and iPads were still constraint during the quarter.

    However I am really paying attention to the Braeburn Group which I am now an active member.

    Their average estimate is 12.32.  Last quarter they were at 12.99 and got hurt by the iPad number.  They have learned and estimated down.  Therefore I think we have 80%  chance of having an eps between 12-12.50.  A 10% chance under 12 and a 10% chance of over 12.50.

    I think given the increased guidance this quarter there is a better chance that Apple knows pretty damn well how much they will sell before hand.  So it is unlikely we will see a repeat of 4th Quarter so called miss.