Weekend Updates

  • Posted: 22 July 2012 01:29 PM #91

    Mercel - 22 July 2012 02:24 PM
    adamthompson32 - 22 July 2012 01:51 PM
    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 11:13 AM

    Here is a very abbreviated version of the Fortune Sacconaghi/Zaky/Munster/Dediu commentary from the interview last week.  I’m feeling so much better about going into earnings: 

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/21/which-way-will-apple-move-after-tuesdays-earnings-report/

    Yes, blowout coming. but what’s new? We need to just not let the media affect our psyche. They are all lemmings and Apple’s guidance suggests $13.00 EPS. That WS issued 2 months ago. Did the world collapse since then? No. $12.00+ is guaranteed based on guidance. This will be just one more homerun for Apple.

    By the same reasoning, Apple guided FQ4 2011 to break $8, and we know how that turned out.  Guidance is never any kind of guarantee.

    It’s as close to a guarantee as anything. I’d rather pay attention to TC et al. and their nearly perfect track record than the WS guys who are nearly perfect in getting it wrong every single quarter.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 01:30 PM #92

    Ahem, I never said Apple wouldn’t make $12+.  In fact, I’m at 12.43. 

    There is no guarantee and it’s a mistake to suggest there is one.  My recent education with July 2012 calls hasn’t completely tamed my inner bull, but my snort isn’t so reflexive now.

    Characterizing an Apple “blowout” is making a different point.  And I too am more optimistic about the opportunity to “beat the street” this time due to current expectations.

    Anyone hazard a guess as to why Katy and Toni are pouring cold water on expectations?  Katy’s caution was more noteworthy than Toni S., who can be relied on to be glib when the facts are in short supply.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 02:38 PM #93

    Huberty?  Her analysis has always been off.

    She’s the three-scenario analyst.  How’s that for hedging.

    That new iPad in China launch delay?  It’s a bit more nuanced than that.  While it’s true that the Wi-Fi version of the iPad 2 launched sometime in May last year, the 3G version of the iPad 2 did not launch until September.

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 02:44 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 04:17 PM #94

    Mav - 22 July 2012 05:38 PM

    Huberty?  Her analysis has always been off.

    She’s the three-scenario analyst.  How’s that for hedging.

    That new iPad in China launch delay?  It’s a bit more nuanced than that.  While it’s true that the Wi-Fi version of the iPad 2 launched sometime in May last year, the 3G version of the iPad 2 did not launch until September.

    I tend to ignore Katy Huberty’s quarterly estimates and tend to focus on her price targets. Listening to her astute questions during Apple’s quarterly conference calls, she has an impressive grasp of Apple’s long-term potential and she understands the company far better than her quarterly estimates suggest.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 04:32 PM #95

    The problem is, you can’t really give points for great CC questions.  The proof is in the writing, and Huberty’s track record is pretty much the same as most typical WS estimates, which is to say regularly off the mark.

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 06:08 PM #96

    Mav - 22 July 2012 07:32 PM

    The problem is, you can’t really give points for great CC questions.  The proof is in the writing, and Huberty’s track record is pretty much the same as most typical WS estimates, which is to say regularly off the mark.

    Questions combined with bullish price targets is far more telling than quarterly estimates.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 06:23 PM #97

    So, which of Huberty’s price targets do you think is most appropriate?

    The $720 target from March?

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 07:45 PM #98

    Mav - 22 July 2012 09:23 PM

    So, which of Huberty’s price targets do you think is most appropriate?

    The $720 target from March?

    Look at her published bullish case scenarios. Her price targets are often covered at Apple 2.0.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 07:49 PM #99

    Mav - 22 July 2012 09:23 PM

    So, which of Huberty’s price targets do you think is most appropriate?

    The $720 target from March?

    OK, I’ll do the work for you this time. Please see this article concerning her price target revision and the $960 potential outcome in her model.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:46 PM #100

    Oh, I know about that one.  It’s like I said:  Three scenarios.

    $960 is the “bull case”.  Not the One True Price Target.  It’s part of a constellation.  I’m sorry, but it’s hedging of a kind, and with three targets you know the analyst isn’t putting full conviction behind a single number.

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 08:55 PM #101

    Mav - 22 July 2012 11:46 PM

    Oh, I know about that one.  It’s like I said:  Three scenarios.

    $960 is the “bull case”.  Not the One True Price Target.  It’s part of a constellation.  I’m sorry, but it’s hedging of a kind, and with three targets you know the analyst isn’t putting full conviction behind a single number.


    I have a couple of targets. One that I think Apple has a good chance of hitting, and another that governs my LEAP investments.  The second is significantly lower than the first.

    For example, I think Apple has a very good chance of being over $1,000 a share in early January, 2014.  My investments will do very well at $750 a share in early January, 2014, though.

    I do not have and do not need “full conviction” behind a single number.  I do not require it of myself or of others.  I do not give the estimates or targets of any particular analyst undue weight.  It is all grist for the mill, and it is my mill doing the grinding for my investments.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 09:02 PM #102

    roni, this is different and I think you recognize that.

    WS practice is to set out one number.  Huberty’s had the triangulation thing going on for a while now.  I’d give it more respect if her estimates were better - and if the triangulation wasn’t such a ridiculous range - so I just have to agree to disagree with Robert there.

    We weren’t talking the target price ranges for ourselves.  I have plenty of price targets that I continually readjust based on a variety of valuations.  That’s just for me, though - and I’m not a paid analyst on WS who is expected to have a high-conviction number that’s theoretically actionable.

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:20 PM #103

    Mav - 22 July 2012 11:46 PM

    Oh, I know about that one.  It’s like I said:  Three scenarios.

    $960 is the “bull case”.  Not the One True Price Target.  It’s part of a constellation.  I’m sorry, but it’s hedging of a kind, and with three targets you know the analyst isn’t putting full conviction behind a single number.

    She is the worst of the WS analysts covering AAPL.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:27 PM #104

    Mav - 23 July 2012 12:02 AM

    roni, this is different and I think you recognize that.

    Hang on.

    Okay,  I do not agree.

    I think it is fine for analysts to post various scenarios and price target ranges for each scenario.

    I am likely to have more respect for analysts who do that, but frankly I read it all and do my global view based on everything I read and more smile

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 09:30 PM by roni ]      
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 04:38 PM #105

    roni - 21 July 2012 02:37 PM

    My largest concerns are the US fiscal cliff and China growth.

    Unless the fiscal cliff thing is resolved, I am a bit nervous about the Jan 2013 position, but I do not think that goes into effect by Tuesday afternoon.

    Not saying Romney will do any better, but a Romney election will give us a second bite at the apple, so to speak.  That alone should keep the precipice at bay until the new Administration’s first budget is presented to Congress.  Just getting a budget would be nice.  If it includes meaningful reductions in borrowing, then like the doomsday clock, we will pull back from midnight.

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