AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 07:24 PM

    Earnings week!

    [ Edited: 28 July 2012 01:14 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 07:30 PM #1

    BTW, does the Nikkei EVER go up?!  Seems every time I look at Futures, that index is red…

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 07:36 PM #2

    Eric Jackson predicts 12.50 EPS for the June quarter, 42B in revenue, ~45% GM, 32m iPhones sold and 22m iPads; stock price will continue consolidation over the summer; in the fall, the iPad mini introduction will spark a new ramp in the stock price. 

    The TV next year will grow even faster than the iPad because of the established base of Apple consumers plus newbies drawn in via word of mouth.

    Link to Bloomberg video:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/shareholder-preview-of-apple-earnings-luJfxckaSx6H3R1miIbvPw.html?cmpid=yhoo

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 07:48 PM #3

    Last quarter someone here posted a link that looked almost like an excel spreadsheet with a site that listed all the analysts indies & institutional and all the various categories (ipad, ipod, revs, gross margins, etc.)and all the projections.  Does anyone have that or know where it is located for this quarter?  I just don’t know if it was an article or a site.  Hmmm…..anyone?

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 08:00 PM #4

    Im hoping for a good earnings report.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:02 PM #5

    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 10:48 PM

    Last quarter someone here posted a link that looked almost like an excel spreadsheet with a site that listed all the analysts indies & institutional and all the various categories (ipad, ipod, revs, gross margins, etc.)and all the projections.  Does anyone have that or know where it is located for this quarter?  I just don’t know if it was an article or a site.  Hmmm…..anyone?

    You seem to be talking about Philip Elmer-DeWitt’s corner of the Web on Fortune.

    That data is in a few different places, but not too hard to gather up.  The revs/EPS is near front page:

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/

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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:04 PM #6

    Phoebear611 - 22 July 2012 10:48 PM

    Last quarter someone here posted a link that looked almost like an excel spreadsheet with a site that listed all the analysts indies & institutional and all the various categories (ipad, ipod, revs, gross margins, etc.)and all the projections.  Does anyone have that or know where it is located for this quarter?  I just don’t know if it was an article or a site.  Hmmm…..anyone?

    Here is PED’s eps chart…but I think you are looking for more.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/20/handicapping-apples-quarterly-revenue-and-earnings-q3-2012/

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:08 PM #7

    nate010203 - 22 July 2012 11:00 PM

    Im hoping for a good earnings report.

    Nate, it will be a good report.  That is beyond certain.

    Simply HOW good is the question.  GOOG grows 20% and everyone gets excited.  Apple will grow 50% on a bigger base and some will frown


    I’m at 12.25.  DT is at 11.95.  Some over 13 bucks.  Any and all would be good, if not great by any decent real world standard

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 08:37 PM #8

    delete

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 08:44 PM by nate010203 ]      
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 08:45 PM #9

    nate010203 - 22 July 2012 11:37 PM

    Im not sure if its on my end or not but this website is barely working for me right now.

    and I got a message that popped up saying I needed to donate money or something and I couldnt close it.

    edit:

    Still barely working and still pop up ad saying I have to donate money and I cant close the ad.

    WTF I thought this site was supposed to be free.

    It’s ok Nate, they’ll wait for payment until after earnings. smile

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:49 PM #10

    Action plan:

    Will have a pre-market Buy the Dip order ready to go for Monday.  Probably a Sep 12 BCS or so.  Then I’ll just keep watching AAPL to see about further buy-ins.  If AAPL is up on Monday, I wait until Tuesday, and if I don’t buy, I don’t.

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 08:57 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:54 PM #11

    Mav - 22 July 2012 11:49 PM

    Action plan:

    Is AAPL opens down, will seriously investigate an earnings play, subject to what my confused read of the chart is telling me.

    Just hold your nose, buy some weekly 605/615 BCSs and stop worrying! Put in a sell at open for Wednesday and go fishing… :innocent:

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 08:59 PM #12

    Fishing? :innocent:

    No, I plan to play earnings with a greater semblance of discipline than in the past.  Lots of scenarios.  Hey, not every day you can make a bet with a return that even those with nicer cars around here would (mildly) respect.  But if I don’t think the risk/reward is there, I won’t take it and I’ll accept being wrong.  I’m net long on AAPL options anyway, so I can opt to do nothing and still feel more than enough stomach-churning risk on Tuesday rolleyes

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 09:09 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:03 PM #13

    lovemyipad - 22 July 2012 10:30 PM

    BTW, does the Nikkei EVER go up?!  Seems every time I look at Futures, that index is red…

    It has, but only very briefly. The Japanese culture abhors failure , hence the governmebt’s 20+ year battle to correct abuses, while at the same time not allowing firms to fail.

    Unfortunately, this has led to the American experience of the past three years, on a grander scale.

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:10 PM #14

    Trainspotter - 22 July 2012 10:36 PM

    Eric Jackson predicts 12.50 EPS for the June quarter, 42B in revenue, ~45% GM, 32m iPhones sold and 22m iPads; stock price will continue consolidation over the summer; in the fall, the iPad mini introduction will spark a new ramp in the stock price. 

    The TV next year will grow even faster than the iPad because of the established base of Apple consumers plus newbies drawn in via word of mouth.

    Link to Bloomberg video:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/shareholder-preview-of-apple-earnings-luJfxckaSx6H3R1miIbvPw.html?cmpid=yhoo

    There may have been one earlier than November 2006, but that’s what I remember as the first TV rumor.  After six years of busted rumors you’d think the blogosphere would tire of them.

    Beyond that, should Apple report as Eric hypothesizes, we will not see a “moribund” summer, because in addition to those numbers (which indicate stronger demand for Apple products than the Street is factoring), Apple will guide stronger than they did in April.

    Guidance is about the future, earnings is about the past. Investors use the past to establish a base line, then buy the future.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 09:15 PM #15

    The good news is, no one is expecting much out of Apple guidance. 

    $34B revs guidance would be a little worrisome.  WS is expecting a slight uptick in revenue sequentially.  It’s a nonissue if $34B revs guidance ends up yielding a $41B+ revs number on Tuesday.

    $36B revs guidance would be preferred given Red October and the $2B revs Q3 guidance to Q4 guidance increase in fiscal 2011, just in case WS is still fixated on that.

    Anything over $36B revs guidance would be a powerful sign.  Honestly, I’ll be fine with $34.5-35B revs guidance as long as Apple “learned its lesson” from last year.

    [ Edited: 22 July 2012 09:18 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.