AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:18 PM #16

    Gregg Thurman - 23 July 2012 12:10 AM

    Beyond that, should Apple report as Eric hypothesizes, we will not see a “moribund” summer, because in addition to those numbers (which indicate stronger demand for Apple products than the Street is factoring), Apple will guide stronger than they did in April.

    Guidance is about the future, earnings is about the past. Investors use the past to establish a base line, then buy the future.

    I certainly expect Apple will go up, and trade in a new range. However, given the way the summer usually goes, and all the macro uncertainty. I fully expect that AAPL will fall off after the bounce, be at an undervalued PE, and trade within a range that although higher $$$, is equally or more frustrating than the just-passed quarter.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 09:19 PM #17

    Like 600-650 maybe?  I can see that.

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:20 PM #18

    Red Shirted Ensign - 22 July 2012 11:54 PM
    Mav - 22 July 2012 11:49 PM

    Action plan:

    Is AAPL opens down, will seriously investigate an earnings play, subject to what my confused read of the chart is telling me.

    Just hold your nose, buy some weekly 605/615 BCSs and stop worrying! Put in a sell at open for Wednesday and go fishing… :innocent:

    That’s my plan, only I bought Weekly $620/$625s at $1.93. I expect to sell at~$3.25/$3.50, then will buy Put Spreads just in the money for Friday. The latter based on Apple’s guidance.

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  • Posted: 22 July 2012 09:41 PM #19

    Be careful-but again I’m the pessimist.

    Europe was ugly on Friday-nothing’s really changed since then-it may continue to bring us down.  Spain was down -5.8%, France -2.1, and Germany -1.9%

    Syria could get ugly quickly.  Could Israel get involved?

    Iran?

    I think Apple is going to surprise everyone (to the upside).  But it could be a hazardous week.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 09:52 PM #20

    kevinhernandez - 23 July 2012 12:41 AM

    Be careful-but again I’m the pessimist.

    Europe was ugly on Friday-nothing’s really changed since then-it may continue to bring us down.  Spain was down -5.8%, France -2.1, and Germany -1.9%

    Syria could get ugly quickly.  Could Israel get involved?

    Iran?

    I think Apple is going to surprise everyone (to the upside).  But it could be a hazardous week.

    On the optimist side, A downer Monday could lead to even bigger returns post earnings Tuesday PM (Wednesday AM)

    See thread http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/83011/P15/ for Mav’s non-actionable non-advice

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 10:06 PM #21

    nate010203 - 22 July 2012 11:00 PM

    Im hoping for a good earnings report.

    That plus a good reaction to the earnings report… 

    ... “Nothing either good or bad; But thinking and manipulation makes it so”  ?  Shakespeare

    (Well, I added the manipulation part in deference to the EOs.)

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 10:11 PM #22

    jjjz - 23 July 2012 01:06 AM

    (...)
    ... “Nothing either good or bad; But thinking and manipulation makes it so”  ?  Shakespeare

    (Well, I added the manipulation part in deference to the EOs.)

    I like it!! smile

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 10:25 PM #23

    kevinhernandez - 23 July 2012 12:41 AM

    Be careful-but again I’m the pessimist.

    Europe was ugly on Friday-nothing’s really changed since then-it may continue to bring us down.  Spain was down -5.8%, France -2.1, and Germany -1.9%

    Syria could get ugly quickly.  Could Israel get involved?

    Iran?

    I think Apple is going to surprise everyone (to the upside).  But it could be a hazardous week.

    Kev, for me, it’s like two negatives making a positive.  Macro still sucks (neg #1), but I’m still jaded (neg #2) about sentiment driving the news vs. the other way around.  The market blissfully ignored all the macro crap in Feb and Mar.  If the market chooses to ignore again, we’ll have a rip-your-face-off rally that will bankrupt the shorts and lure in the bulls—all-in and fully leveraged anticipating AAPL at 1000 shortly—THEN when we’re immune to all the top-callers (boy who cried wolf), THEN we’ll have another blistering a*s-kicking.

    So…we shall soon find out whether sentiment is in “blissful-ignorance” mode or “hyper-focused-doom-and-gloom” mode.  With the former, we rally even on bad news.  With the latter, we tank even on good news.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 10:39 PM #24

    lovemyipad - 23 July 2012 01:25 AM
    kevinhernandez - 23 July 2012 12:41 AM

    Be careful-but again I’m the pessimist.

    Europe was ugly on Friday-nothing’s really changed since then-it may continue to bring us down.  Spain was down -5.8%, France -2.1, and Germany -1.9%

    Syria could get ugly quickly.  Could Israel get involved?

    Iran?

    I think Apple is going to surprise everyone (to the upside).  But it could be a hazardous week.

    Kev, for me, it’s like two negatives making a positive.  Macro still sucks (neg #1), but I’m still jaded (neg #2) about sentiment driving the news vs. the other way around.  The market blissfully ignored all the macro crap in Feb and Mar.  If the market chooses to ignore again, we’ll have a rip-your-face-off rally that will bankrupt the shorts and lure in the bulls—all-in and fully leveraged anticipating AAPL at 1000 shortly—THEN when we’re immune to all the top-callers (boy who cried wolf), THEN we’ll have another blistering a*s-kicking.

    So…we shall soon find out whether sentiment is in “blissful-ignorance” mode or “hyper-focused-doom-and-gloom” mode.  With the former, we rally even on bad news.  With the latter, we tank even on good news.

    So you are all in?

    Just when does your crystal ball show AAPL reaching $1,000?  I would say there is plenty of time for many whipsaws and changes in market sentiment to occur between now and then.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 10:55 PM #25

    Mav - 23 July 2012 12:19 AM

    Like 600-650 maybe?  I can see that.

    Roughly. I could see a quarter low of 585. I could see a high 670+. But yeah, most of the quarter running 600-650 would be in line with my expectations.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 10:57 PM #26

    While China can still stimulate its economy, the Fed can only fondle ours. 

    Don’t forget, bull markets climb a wall of worry.  If true, some AFB’ers are going to push us higher.

         
  • Posted: 22 July 2012 10:58 PM #27

    madmaxroi - 23 July 2012 01:39 AM

    Just when does your crystal ball show AAPL reaching $1,000?  I would say there is plenty of time for many whipsaws and changes in market sentiment to occur between now and then.

    Oh… hell… yeah… There’s going to be some sick-making lurches in the price wink

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 11:03 PM #28

    Mercel - 23 July 2012 01:57 AM

    While China can still stimulate its economy, the Fed can only fondle ours. 

    Don’t forget, bull markets climb a wall of worry.  If true, some AFB’ers are going to push us higher.

    Didn’t know the collective AFB had _that_ much buying power.  LOL

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 22 July 2012 11:39 PM #29

    Mav - 23 July 2012 02:03 AM
    Mercel - 23 July 2012 01:57 AM

    While China can still stimulate its economy, the Fed can only fondle ours. 

    Don’t forget, bull markets climb a wall of worry.  If true, some AFB’ers are going to push us higher.

    Didn’t know the collective AFB had _that_ much buying power.  LOL


    If we all put our money together, we could buy…...

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 11:40 PM #30

    Mav - 23 July 2012 02:03 AM
    Mercel - 23 July 2012 01:57 AM

    While China can still stimulate its economy, the Fed can only fondle ours. 

    Don’t forget, bull markets climb a wall of worry.  If true, some AFB’ers are going to push us higher.

    Didn’t know the collective AFB had _that_ much buying power.  LOL

    Mav, just you alone!  :-D