AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:05 PM #721

    Prazan - 27 July 2012 06:47 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 27 July 2012 05:53 PM

    Amazon is seen as expanding their vendor footprint where as Apple is seen as maturing.

    Amazon is the only significant player in a huge market with daunting barriers to entry. And I’m not talking about the Kindling. I mean, Kindle. Anyone can rip off Apple’s product ideas, though no one yet challenges their ecosystem. And if Apple is seen to be primarily a phone handset company, then the field is littered with the bodies of dead kings - Ericsson, Motorola, and RIM.

    I don’t subscribe to this view, by the way, but it might be true of the market’s view.

    I also don’t believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

    I believe markets are an efficient process of price discovery and don’t necessarily reflect all known facts?especially since most of us cannot remember what we ate for breakfast yesterday (except for those people who eat the same thing every morning).


    Anyway, political risk is too high to remain short at this time.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:07 PM #722

    JDSoCal - 27 July 2012 07:56 PM

    *We’ll never know what the real open interest was today. Thursday’s numbers are all we get.

    True, true. We don’t get intraday OI updates, but high enough volume on the wall strike can tear that wall down.

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  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:16 PM #723

    Mercel - 27 July 2012 08:05 PM

    Amazon is held up by the Hedge Funds and TA and just sheer ignorance.  It’s truly shocking to me that there is so little analysis or commentary that might include comparisons between a company (AMZN) that reported $100M for the entire quarter vs. another (AAPL) that reported $100M profit EACH day in the same quarter.  And I don’t care how many bags of pretzels you buy from Amazon.

    Allow me to pour acide onto the salt in your wound: that was $100M *net income* for the quarter; profit was only $7M.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:17 PM #724

    1.5% GDP
    Comments from Europe - but no action
    “Hopes” of the Fed prompting QE3 next week (which means the economy continues in the crapper.)
    Jobs numbers, ECB, and Fed meeting all coming up next week
    14.26 mln shares only trading in AAPL today
    I want to save my post because I have a terrible feeling that I will look back at it and say - “All the signs were there, why didn’t I trade it properly.”

    Am I nuts?—we get comments and we have screaming rallies and short covering?
    I worry about getting caught up in my hopes or in some insane euphoria again and not trading my account appropriately and RATIONALLY. I lightened up a bit…maybe I should have lightened up a little bit more.  I don’t even know anymore…nothing is making sense….I need a drink.  iPad, please start the Weekend thread!

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:25 PM #725

    Prazan - 27 July 2012 06:36 PM

    We’re up over 1% today, almost keeping up with SPY. So much for the Goldman Sachs theory. Correlation does not imply causation.

    Give it a day. wink

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:28 PM #726

    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:17 PM

    I lightened up a bit…maybe I should have lightened up a little bit more.

    As did I.  Got rid of some AKAM and some DE which was underwater, but today allowed me to lighten my loss. Most of my other holdings are dividend stocks, in addition to some underwater AAPL 570 Jan’13 calls.

    I’m about 50% cash in my brokerage account; and nearly 100% in my two Roths, which were both cleared of all AAPL on Monday, until I can get better direction for the stock.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:29 PM #727

    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:17 PM

    1.5% GDP
    Comments from Europe - but no action
    “Hopes” of the Fed prompting QE3 next week (which means the economy continues in the crapper.)
    Jobs numbers, ECB, and Fed meeting all coming up next week
    14.26 mln shares only trading in AAPL today
    I want to save my post because I have a terrible feeling that I will look back at it and say - “All the signs were there, why didn’t I trade it properly.”

    Am I nuts?—we get comments and we have screaming rallies and short covering?
    I worry about getting caught up in my hopes or in some insane euphoria again and not trading my account appropriately and RATIONALLY. I lightened up a bit…maybe I should have lightened up a little bit more.  I don’t even know anymore…nothing is making sense….I need a drink.  iPad, please start the Weekend thread!

    I enjoyed today, but my strategy will stay the same for now.  I write earlier that I had raised a bunch of cash yesterday. 

    As things stand now, we are 40% AAPL (Jan 2014 $600’s), 40% cash and 20% divvy positions.

    I will buy Apple at a TTM P/E of near 13, or sometime between the end of August and the end of September.  Thinking about April calls, but there is plenty of time to decide.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:33 PM #728

    Eric Landstrom - 27 July 2012 08:02 PM

    All covered up, back to being long.

    Did your covering create this rally? wink

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:35 PM #729

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:02 PM

    Jason Schwarz is thinking that “the AAPL post earnings selloff officially ended today”, and he laid down another 10% of his stash to buy October calls.

    Time will tell.

    All due respect, I have NOT been a fan of his timing.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:37 PM #730

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 08:33 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 27 July 2012 08:02 PM

    All covered up, back to being long.

    Did your covering create this rally? wink

    Not this time.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:41 PM #731

    Eric Landstrom - 27 July 2012 08:05 PM

    I believe markets are an efficient process of price discovery and don’t necessarily reflect all known facts?especially since most of us cannot remember what we ate for breakfast yesterday (except for those people who eat the same thing every morning).

     

    That doesn’t help because it doesn’t offer us anything on which to form an opinion.  It provides no guidance on what to do and presumes the market is infallible with pricing a particular stock.  What the hell are we supposed to do with that gem?

    The “Efficient Market Theory” therefore covers everything:  Theft, Chicanery, TA, Fundamentals, OPEX—insert your own.  You might as well call it “The Crackpot Theory,” because that’s all the sense one can make from it.

    Sorry to vent, but I’m really disturbed with the apathy on how broken the stock market is and no one’s showing any energy to fix it.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:41 PM #732

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:02 PM

    Jason Schwarz is thinking that “the AAPL post earnings selloff officially ended today”, and he laid down another 10% of his stash to buy October calls.

    Time will tell.

    The same guy who was certain iPHone sales would not disappoint.

    No one knows if this correction ended.

    I go by history.  And every quarter we correct further at some point.

    Just need to be patient.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:46 PM #733

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 08:35 PM
    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:02 PM

    Jason Schwarz is thinking that “the AAPL post earnings selloff officially ended today”, and he laid down another 10% of his stash to buy October calls.

    Time will tell.

    All due respect, I have NOT been a fan of his timing.

    The deal is that

    1) its Friday and traders like to cover on Friday anyway and enjoy the weekend.

    2) We have more than normal political risk of some fool talking about some type of backstop in bond marks (a market that is five times the size of equity markets) which could send shockwaves around the world and nobody wants to participate in a panic covering rally (except on the sell side).

    3) Hence, today’s rally monkey.

    4) No news, come Monday, back short again which normal bear rhetoric?e.g., spiking bond yields, debt to revenue ratios, deadlocked politics, rising cost of living, declining waste shipments coupled with declining rail shipping, scary noises and so forth.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:49 PM #734

    Mercel - 27 July 2012 08:41 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 27 July 2012 08:05 PM

    I believe markets are an efficient process of price discovery and don’t necessarily reflect all known facts?especially since most of us cannot remember what we ate for breakfast yesterday (except for those people who eat the same thing every morning).

     

    That doesn’t help because it doesn’t offer us anything on which to form an opinion.  It provides no guidance on what to do and presumes the market is infallible with pricing a particular stock.  What the hell are we supposed to do with that gem?

    The “Efficient Market Theory” therefore covers everything:  Theft, Chicanery, TA, Fundamentals, OPEX—insert your own.  You might as well call it “The Crackpot Theory,” because that’s all the sense one can make from it.

    Sorry to vent, but I’m really disturbed with the apathy on how broken the stock market is and no one’s showing any energy to fix it.

    What are you supposed to do with that gem? The same thing you do with modern portfolio theory.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 06:20 PM #735

    Mercel - 27 July 2012 08:41 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 27 July 2012 08:05 PM

    I believe markets are an efficient process of price discovery and don’t necessarily reflect all known facts?especially since most of us cannot remember what we ate for breakfast yesterday (except for those people who eat the same thing every morning).

     

    That doesn’t help because it doesn’t offer us anything on which to form an opinion.  It provides no guidance on what to do and presumes the market is infallible with pricing a particular stock.  What the hell are we supposed to do with that gem?

    The “Efficient Market Theory” therefore covers everything:  Theft, Chicanery, TA, Fundamentals, OPEX—insert your own.  You might as well call it “The Crackpot Theory,” because that’s all the sense one can make from it.

    Sorry to vent, but I’m really disturbed with the apathy on how broken the stock market is and no one’s showing any energy to fix it.

    Yeah, I’m calling BS on efficient markets, at least for short- to-medium term pricing. I would say that the longer the period, the more efficiently-priced the market. We’ve heard the Keynesian quote about how long markets can remain irrational ad nauseum. So buying-and-holding great stocks for 10-20 years works. But trying to time when the herd is going to stampede from the waterhole because one of the wildebeests heard some grass rustle, well that’s far from efficient.

    It’s funny, just last night, Larry Kudlow was waxing nostalgic about the “Goldilocks” markets of old, where stocks were priced to perfection.

    And yeah, Amazon and its 1 cent earnings, much better stock, LOL.

    “25% of something big is better than 100% of nothing.”—Eddie Felson, The Hustler.

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