AAPL Q3 2012 Earnings Results Thread

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 10:57 PM #61

    Burgess, I guess I’ll wait until you read my second post.

    The Tim Cook Demand Curve, given a product Apple can fabricate fast enough, is a different beast from anything we’ve seen before. 

    You have two choices if production is not a limiting factor.
     
    1)  Get your product out there and satisfy demand as fast as possible. 

    2)  Control production to increase output for 2-3 quarters before trailing off.

    The first is best for addressing the competition.  The second is really only good for making the books look good.

    In either case, demand will eventually trail off.

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:04 PM #62

    Good point Mav - it’s such a big difference to last year - iPhone is 3 months younger, but was released in all major markets 3 months faster - it’s as if apple compressed a 12 month sales cycle to 9 months (which would be fine if a new iPhone arrived after 9 months, but that ain’t happening).

    I guess if apple only reported once a year instead of quarterly - we would all be popping champagne right now.

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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 11:11 PM #63

    Burgess - 25 July 2012 02:04 AM

    I guess if apple only reported once a year instead of quarterly - we would all be popping champagne right now.

    Ha! This is so true. Apple results usually look awesome quarter to quarter, but always look awesome year to year. This is part of the reason why I mostly stick to the longest-dated LEAPs available. Ideally, the low in AAPL will come sometime during the 3’rd or 4’th week of September (or early October) so I can pick up some of the January ‘15 calls shortly after issue (obviously not at issue, but after they settle down to reasonable prices).

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:19 PM #64

    Breaking down some numbers:

    iPad is up 84% YOY with only a little help from China via the gateways (Hong Kong) and gray market.  And no Siri.  And a weak Europe.

    iPad business is still booming.

    iPhone will remain a question mark until maybe late April 2013.

    As far as facts are concerned, though:

    Fiscal Q1-Q3 2011 iPhone sales:  55.23M

    Fiscal Q1-Q3 2012 iPhone sales:  98.14M (77.6% YOY increase)

    Project Q4 2012 iPhone sales to not grow at all YOY (scary thought):  You get 72.3M iPhones for FY ‘11 and 115.21M iPhones for FY ‘12 - 59.3% YOY growth.  Could be worse for a company that makes one smartphone a year.

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 11:21 PM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:26 PM #65

    The challenge for next qtr is the slowdown to iPhone sales will be more severe as most of the competitor products have already launched and we have no new carriers/countries planned and we will most likely draw down inventory in the channel so reported numbers will be lower absent a new iPhone launch.  I’m still projecting a mid Sep launch based on iOS 6 development milestones and rumors of pilot production this month.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:29 PM #66

    I imagine Tim Cook will try his damndest to push iOS 6 for an early September launch, even if there’s a couple more bugs than usual.  He’s as aware about the competition as anyone, and he knew that Apple’s “Red October” quarter was arriving a full fiscal quarter early. 

    Interestingly, some consider August and September to be “Fall” - education in particular.

    Apple’s not in a “bad situation” per se, but I have to assume Tim knows his product roadmap, knows what’s going on around him, and wants Apple product out there in the marketplace as soon as it’s ready to go.

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    AFB Night Owl Team™
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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 11:33 PM #67

    I missed a portion of the call but did TC say anything about the enterprise?  Did they pick up any market share from RIMM’s downfall?

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    Posted: 25 July 2012 12:28 AM #68

    Mav - 24 July 2012 10:24 PM

    Sell now, then.

    Get used to it.  Here’s an early number from me:  $35B revs, 22M iPhones, 19M iPads, 41% GM, $8.10 EPS.

    $8.10 would bring fiscal 12 to about $43.60. As of today, the average professional analyst estimate is $46.80, per Yahoo! Finance. The low is $44.42 and the high is $51.18.

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  • Posted: 25 July 2012 12:34 AM #69

    Then we may very well get adjustments and downgrades for the next few months tomorrow - ugh

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  • Posted: 25 July 2012 12:50 AM #70

    Not dire, but disappointing day.  It’s frankly a shock that K Huberty nailed the numbers, her credibility just went up a couple of notches.

    It’s hard to be optimistic in the short term.  Sept, rather than Oct ‘new’ iPhone launch, please? 

    Declining ASP’s seem a likely trend, especially with smaller iPad.  That’s cool with me, I think it is about growing the ecosystem as much as cranking the margins.  And I think Apple has to take the competition in tablets more seriously than a lot of us do. 

    Europe and China numbers are not good at all.  What hope for this quarter?

    Everyone has a smartphone now so everyone knows there is a new smartphone coming.  The product cycle is what it is, and the new mobile paradigm telegraphs it wider and wider.

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 12:51 AM #71

    Yep!  Hard hats on!  It’s not gonna be fun. 

    Being selective about where you get your financial news is recommended.  You won’t avoid all the bad press but you can filter out a little of the noise and save some amount of aggravation.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2012 01:19 AM #72

    Mav - 25 July 2012 02:19 AM

    Breaking down some numbers:
    ........

    iPhone will remain a question mark until maybe late April 2013.

    .

    Why is the April 2013 more critical than jan 2013?

    iPhone will be out n sept sometimes and will have he holiday season ahead of it.

    Q1 results will be in by jan 2013… And we will have a clear picture of the iPhone success and numbers.

    Why do u say late April is when we will know about the iPhone ?

    Ps
    I am confident apple will do 50+ ttm eps by jan 2013…
    Come jan. we will see these days as days of opportunity to have bought!

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 01:26 AM #73

    I’m just talking skepticism and possibly adjusting to what I think is the new sales cycle for iPhone.

    January should cover a new iPhone launch in September/October (at least I hope it does) and that number should be good.

    April brings us the results from Jan-Mar.  If WS sees another strong quarter of iPhone and notices the new pattern, additional reassurance will follow.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2012 02:27 AM #74

    Hey folks,

    Just a courtesy heads up. For many, many quarters, I’ve wondered why everyone else could find results before I could. I tried Apple’s investor page. I tried Google News. I tried Marketwatch. I couldn’t crack the code.

    Today, I finally did. (Which, sadly, is how I got to be the bearer of bad news in the earnings reporting thread.)

    AAPL sends out their summary email via BusinessWire. Today, as soon as the first tick of the big drop hit on Google Finance, I checked there, and sure enough, there were the numbers before they’d been reported anywhere else.

    Anyway, here’s the link for you to bookmark for the next time around.

    http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/news/

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2012 02:36 AM #75

    Here’s some kool-aid.  If we agree with Horace re:Apple needs to kill the iPhone, then this is the beginning of that process.  Think of this Q as AAPL slowly pulling off the iPhone band-aid. 5 years ago, Steve told us Apple was 5 years ahead of the competition.  Today, most people just want a facebooking, instagramming, music streaming, picture taking machine.  The other guys’ rectangles with 4.7” LTE 720P Screens and Quadcore processors are delivering now.

    skate to where the puck will be