AAPL Q3 2012 Conference Call Thread

  • Posted: 24 July 2012 06:37 PM #31

    fas550 - 24 July 2012 09:33 PM

    Greece Down
    Italy Down
    France Down (I think down or flat at least)
    Germany flat (Odd)
    UK about the same

    This is all bad news in a general sense…Europe hasn’t seen a total meltdown yet, but if Apple is seeing bad numbers from these major countries, it seems as though it’s going to get worse (much?)  before it gets better.  Also, with Netflix taking AH today, it seems like tech may be in for a real whooping tomorrow…

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 06:41 PM #32

    fas550 - 24 July 2012 09:33 PM
    Mav - 24 July 2012 09:27 PM

    Euro is underperforming - flat growth YOY on iPhone, but they’re savvy on the rumors.

    Crap, CC just conked out.  Tim was about to go into very helpful detail about Euro countries individually.

    US and China are doing OK as far as Apple’s expectations.

    Greece Down
    Italy Down
    France Down (I think down or flat at least)
    Germany flat (Odd)
    UK about the same

    Thanks!

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 06:43 PM #33

    New (well, new to me) potentially useful data point - Channel inventory is indirect channel only, not a proxy for overall inventory.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 06:45 PM #34

    Mav - 24 July 2012 09:41 PM
    fas550 - 24 July 2012 09:33 PM
    Mav - 24 July 2012 09:27 PM

    Euro is underperforming - flat growth YOY on iPhone, but they’re savvy on the rumors.

    Crap, CC just conked out.  Tim was about to go into very helpful detail about Euro countries individually.

    US and China are doing OK as far as Apple’s expectations.

    Greece Down
    Italy Down
    France Down (I think down or flat at least)
    Germany flat (Odd)
    UK about the same

    Thanks!

    UK BTW same means about the same level of growth I believe.
    Dollar is hurting as well as the most dismal economies.  On a positive side they haven’t seen a slowdown in China related to the economy.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 06:47 PM #35

    iPad will have to carry the banner one more quarter.

    17M iPad sales were above management expectations, so they say.

    Based on that, expecting 30M iPads in the holiday quarter without iPad mini may well be asking too much.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 06:50 PM #36

    iPhone ASP - down due to cheaper iPhone mix, economic conditions, US dollar, rumors.

    iPad ASP - down YOY due to higher mix of cheaper models (incl. iPad 2), more indirect sales, the dollar is a factor.

    Currency hedging has its limits - or at least I hope the dollar isn’t being used as some “excuse.”

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 06:53 PM #37

    India - tough market.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 06:56 PM #38

    Mav - 24 July 2012 09:53 PM

    India - tough market.

    Yes I have known a few companies (on the inside) that have tried India then exited. Many challenges there that make having decent margins almost impossible.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 06:58 PM #39

    I like TC but if he says one more time that they are maniacal about building the world’s best products I am going to pick up my MacBook Pro and throw it across the room.

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 07:03 PM #40

    Cook and Oppenheimer make my executive Watch List again, but now is not the time to panic.  Those two saw this slower quarter from miles away.  They’re not really used to slow quarters like these so their delivery was acceptable enough to me.

    Nothing that makes me want to sell my shares.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 07:29 PM #41

    My shares are a forever thing - but the options will need tending to tomorrow.
    Has anyone heard from Ms. iPad?  Maybe she really was kidnapped by Coldplay…haven’t seen her on all day.  I’m needing some comforting words right now.

    On a brighter note - you need to own shares on by August 13th to receive the first dividend.

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 07:32 PM #42

    She’s here, don’t worry.

    Also, AAPL shares will auto-adjust for the divvy on August 13 or something.  Since I’ve never held a divvy stock, the price dynamics could be interesting.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 08:32 PM #43

    Mav - 24 July 2012 09:50 PM

    iPhone ASP - down due to cheaper iPhone mix, economic conditions, US dollar, rumors.

    iPad ASP - down YOY due to higher mix of cheaper models (incl. iPad 2), more indirect sales, the dollar is a factor.

    Currency hedging has its limits - or at least I hope the dollar isn’t being used as some “excuse.”

    Yes interesting about the cheaper iPhone mix don’t you think? Maybe those that want the latest and greatest are holding off for iPhone 5, but those that buy the 3GS or 4 are unfazed about iPhone 5?

    Currency hedging - I thought a few days back is could be an issue, but I didn’t quite understand what was said on the CC - $200 million hit to last quarter, and perceived $400 million hit to next quarter - not sure if that was direct hit to bottom line profit or top line revenue. Either way $400 million is about 42c a share for the quarter upcoming, presuming the dollar stays where it is now?

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    Full Disclosure:

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    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 09:16 PM #44

    Mav - 24 July 2012 10:32 PM

    She’s here, don’t worry.

    Also, AAPL shares will auto-adjust for the divvy on August 13 or something.  Since I’ve never held a divvy stock, the price dynamics could be interesting.

    Most dividend stocks have a slight run-up into the ex-div date, and then drop by the amount of the dividend on the ex-div date.  So if AAPL is distributing a $2.00 dividend effective to holders as of 8-12-12, and let’s say is trading at 602, then the next day it should be about 600 (all else being equal).

    This would just be noise in the overall activity of AAPL, however.

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 09:19 PM by rutgersguy92 ]      
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 09:22 PM #45

    Mav - 24 July 2012 09:47 PM

    iPad will have to carry the banner one more quarter.

    17M iPad sales were above management expectations, so they say.

    Based on that, expecting 30M iPads in the holiday quarter without iPad mini may well be asking too much.

    Once again, everyone got way to optimistic on iPads.  I fell victim to some of the group think (yes, it happens on an Apple blog, no surprise) and upped my initial 18m to 19m.  Never again. 

    It was a huge miss by blogger standards, but not so much by Wall Street.  I do think the whisper # is influenced by all EPS #s and it’s time to control the inner bull, myself included.

    Apple is fine.  Our expectations are the issue here.