Damage control

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:09 PM #31

    hydrarx - 25 July 2012 12:26 AM
    lovemyipad - 24 July 2012 11:32 PM

    I am never, ever getting short-term options again.  Again!!!

    It took me that, plus some extra losses, to finally sink into my head that I’m no good at short term option plays :p Short term options are evil I tell ya!

    My head is harder than yours since I relearn this lesson every other quarter.

    My saving grace is taking profits regularly—hate doing it, but it’s saved my butt more often than not.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:11 PM #32

    calvinav - 25 July 2012 01:02 AM

    Amidst the disaster, here’s a thought: QE3 might be quite near now and would be expected to have a rising effect on the market and might mitigate AAPL’s fall in the coming months.

    Need to see the makings of a crash first.  Like, not sitting above SPX 1300.

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 11:18 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:13 PM #33

    DavidCV100 - 25 July 2012 01:18 AM

    Disaster control.  I am stunned right now so need to be very careful not to make things worse.  Based on reading through each of your thoughts and plans, I will sell all of my Oct 600s and half of of my Jan 13 600s sometime tomorrow (hoping for some kind of bounce from the open).  I will use half of the proceeds to buy Apr 13 (not sure the strike, maybe 600s as well).  Comments/suggestions welcome.  Thanks.

    Like it.  Consider waiting on the buy.  IMHO, prices will go lower over the next few weeks.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:27 PM #34

    wow, what a disaster. All my gains trading apple over they last year is going to be wiped out.

    What do you think oct 650s will be worth tomorrow?

    I also have some Aug 590/610 BCS.  Any suggestions for damage control?
    Buy back the 610 C and then sell a lower strike to create a bear call spread against the 590?

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:28 PM #35

    lovemyipad - 25 July 2012 02:13 AM
    DavidCV100 - 25 July 2012 01:18 AM

    Disaster control.  I am stunned right now so need to be very careful not to make things worse.  Based on reading through each of your thoughts and plans, I will sell all of my Oct 600s and half of of my Jan 13 600s sometime tomorrow (hoping for some kind of bounce from the open).  I will use half of the proceeds to buy Apr 13 (not sure the strike, maybe 600s as well).  Comments/suggestions welcome.  Thanks.

    Like it.  Consider waiting on the buy.  IMHO, prices will go lower over the next few weeks.

    Thanks iPad.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 11:29 PM #36

    lovemyipad - 25 July 2012 02:13 AM
    DavidCV100 - 25 July 2012 01:18 AM

    Disaster control.  I am stunned right now so need to be very careful not to make things worse.  Based on reading through each of your thoughts and plans, I will sell all of my Oct 600s and half of of my Jan 13 600s sometime tomorrow (hoping for some kind of bounce from the open).  I will use half of the proceeds to buy Apr 13 (not sure the strike, maybe 600s as well).  Comments/suggestions welcome.  Thanks.

    Like it.  Consider waiting on the buy.  IMHO, prices will go lower over the next few weeks.

    Careful, the Fed is talking stimulus again (see NYT)

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:46 PM #38

    Nevyn - 25 July 2012 02:27 AM

    wow, what a disaster. All my gains trading apple over they last year is going to be wiped out.

    What do you think oct 650s will be worth tomorrow?

    I also have some Aug 590/610 BCS.  Any suggestions for damage control?
    Buy back the 610 C and then sell a lower strike to create a bear call spread against the 590?

    N, IMHO, whatever the OCT’12 650s are worth, ditch some or hedge some on the oversold bounce.

    Yes, on the damage control for AUG’12 590/610, if you are nimble.  My WAG is that LOD will be soon after the open, then oversold bounce.  Or straight sell and buy something else on the pullback to 568-ish.

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 11:52 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 11:49 PM #39

    Mercel - 25 July 2012 02:40 AM

    Here’s the link:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/business/economy/fed-leaning-closer-to-new-stimulus.html?hp

    And when it happens, I will buy more.  I will either buy on a confirmed uptrend, or I will buy at support levels on the way down: 568, then 555

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2012 11:50 PM #40

    I’m set up for a $800 price target in April and $1000 in jan 14. Does anyone still think these levels are attainable after this dissappointing earnings?

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 01:09 AM #41

    huskerrx - 25 July 2012 02:50 AM

    I’m set up for a $800 price target in April and $1000 in jan 14. Does anyone still think these levels are attainable after this dissappointing earnings?

    AAPL’s holiday quarter will be massive regardless, so there should be a nice run up going into April 2013.  I’m thinking of rolling over some (all?) of my JAN13 700/680 spreads to APR13.  Not sure about 800, that seems a bit too optimistic to me at this point.  We’ll see. 

    I also sold JAN14 960/950 spreads.  I"m thinking now those might be a tad optimistic, so I may target a 800 price for JAN14.  Not sure yet, but that’s a tiny position for me, around 2% of portfolio, so I can leave it for now.

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 01:18 AM #42

    Mercel - 24 July 2012 11:23 PM
    Burgess - 24 July 2012 10:09 PM

    Well I’m thankful I’m 90% in 2014 LEAPS, but my Jan 13 600 calls will tank a bit tomorrow, and are nlikely to see any improvement until the next product announcement.

    My damage control strategy? Do nothing until October.

    +1.  Have patience.  My worst moves on Apple have always been short-term ones.  September/October will see an iPhone 5 launch and we’ll see $675 - $700 without stretching too much.  The only caveat is Europe.

    My Septembers are toast, probably.  C’est la vie.  I have some Octobers that have a chance though.

    Excellent input.

    Last summer we hit $310 and then $360 after the Oct miss.  By April we were at $644.  Jan13 LEAPS increased 800% from those lows.

    I plan selling some shares in the next few days and waiting for a better price to buy a few back and also buy some big bold Jan 14 leaps.

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2012 04:22 AM #43

    I keep reading about new stimulus/QE as early as next week. Thoughts? Maybe save the market a little Thursday and Friday.

    IMO tomorrow’s action will tell a lot.  No support may be a bad sign.

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2012 06:40 AM #44

    Damage control?

    For me, the stock @573 (what it now is PM) is still ca. 15% higher then I expected it to be Jan 2013. Since I missed the last dip to those levels, I’ll buy Jan 14 595 calls @ 90.35—which is about the price it was last time the stock was around 570.

    EDIT: should not have put in the auto-order for the calls: they went for 85. Ah well. The wait won’t kill me… fast.

    My only fear is that apple is too blindly focusing on building the ‘perfect’ product that it is losing sight on what is happening in the world (like it did when losing against windows stating they “didn’t know it was a fight/war”.)

    Samsung is playing ‘the man’, while Apple is playing… with themselves hoping ‘the man’ will be smart enough to ‘see what they did there’.

    Samsung is jumping on every possible market with an android something, while Apple is polishing the rectangular shapes they currently has.

    It is about volume. The more android volume there is, the less one will buy an IOS device for the same reason everyone is using windows, office and other Microsoft ‘‘crap’‘. Everyone is complaining about those products, but they rather complain then be incompatible with the world.

    Piracy was (is) also focused around Windows and not mac OS, because of volume. Piracy seems to get focused around Android. Buy your expensive phone, save on software. Be the Android freeloader.

    Young people tend to want an iPhone but end up with an android phone, because it is way cheaper and kinda does the same thing. Unless they really think Android sucks, they will buy another android phone as the next phone.

    Also do not forget that Samsung is more of a ‘full circle’ company then Apple. It makes ANYTHING and EVERYTHING. Even fridges with toasters. And they see the potential into letting everything talk with each other. And they make chips. (side-note: the latest batch of Raspberry pi’s has a Samsung chip instead of Broadcom because it is faster, has two cores and is cheaper)

    And off course Apple had to start giving out dividend, which is a characteristic for companies that stay FLAT. Give out money to make ppl stay in the stock, because growth is over.

    I’m probably dead wrong wink And glad not to having to use android or windows8 thingies.

    And yes, more than half of this message is posted in a wrong thread. smile

    [ Edited: 25 July 2012 10:51 AM by mtjs ]      
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 10:36 AM #45

    I have 3 Jan 13 BCSs: 

    610/640 paid $8.76 bought May 21st AAPL @ $538
    655/660 paid $1.63 bought May 23rd AAPL @ $568
    635/640 paid $1.93 bought July 23rd AAPL @ $588-$590

    Plugging in yesterday’s EPS 9.32, FQ4 EPS estimate based on yesterday’s @ 8.21 and FQ1 13 of 14 the TTM for Jan 13 will be $43.83.  Using this I get the following AAPL PPS @ P/Es of:

    P/E 12 = $526
    P/E 12.5 = $548
    P/E 13 = $5570
    P/E 13.5 = $592
    P/E 14 = $614
    P/E 14.5 = $636
    P/E 15 = $657

    I bought these believing they were very conservative investments, now I am questioning whether AAPL will be at or above the short prices.  I wouldn’t take a big hit on any of them currently, but am torn between believing AAPL will be above $660 @ expiration.

    I am looking at:
    rolling down or out or
    rolling down and out.
    selling for what I can get and re-enter with any expected decline in AAPL between now and October.

    Any other options or comments would be greatly appreciated.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.