New Game, New Rules:  Deciphering Q4 2012 Guidance

• Zeke

  • Total Posts: 1903
  • Member Since: 2005-04-20
  • Send Message

  • [ Ignore ]

  Posted: 27 July 2012 12:43 AM #16

  Anybody remember the 4th quarter results for the year of the transition to Intel CPUs?  Very similar situation.  Apple survived.

       

• lovemyipad

  

  • Total Posts: 5442
  • Member Since: 2011-01-20
  • Send Message

  • [ Ignore ]

  Posted: 27 July 2012 10:27 AM #17

  Mav - 25 July 2012 02:26 AM

  Will be working up some numbers over the next little while.

  It’ll be a much quicker read this time I think, and I’ll spare the more detailed thought process unless anyone wants an explanation.

  Long story short:  The new Best Play? from the evolving estimation landscape is to stick very, very closely to guidance.  The effect on estimations will be pretty dramatic as we’ll see in the next couple of weeks.

  Mav, from an investing/trading perspective, I too am wondering if the best “conservative” play is to flat out target guidance with no padding.  If they’re sandbagging, then I can be happily surprised—and reallocate accordingly on the first post-earnings pullback.  But banking on beats may (or may not) be a thing of the past.