iPhone 5

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    Posted: 25 July 2012 12:14 AM

    WTF!

    did we get any clarity about when iPhone 5 is going to be released?

    [ Edited: 25 July 2012 11:37 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 12:16 AM #1

    Nope!  Unless you want to listen to the CC once or twice for clues.  There might have been a remark about “transition” but nothing in management guidance is baking in a new iPhone launch in time to make a difference for fiscal Q4 2012, far as I can tell.

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  • Posted: 25 July 2012 12:26 AM #2

    No matter how many times I listen to the CC—I am not so certain we could have predicted the right numbers because it seems ncreasingly obvious to me that AAPL themselves were disappointed —at least that was what it sounded like to me

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    Posted: 25 July 2012 01:04 AM #3

    Phoebear611 - 25 July 2012 03:26 AM

    No matter how many times I listen to the CC—I am not so certain we could have predicted the right numbers because it seems ncreasingly obvious to me that AAPL themselves were disappointed —at least that was what it sounded like to me

    Agreed.  Although the requisite “record June quarter” and “thrilled with iPad sales” were there, they had no enthusiasm.  I’m a little afraid that the estimates for the next quarter are more hopeful than certain.  I’m hopeful not the case (AAPL management wouldn’t want to disappoint two quarters in a row, would it?), so my WAG is that they have a hidden ace (e.g., new product line) to announce for the last few weeks of the quarter. 

    Regardless, the holiday quarter one will be a monster one.  Especially if they have iPhone to announce, refreshed iMacs + iPods, plus new iPad Mini.

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 01:18 AM #4

    Don’t pay attention to tone of voice in the CC.

    If Oppenheimer actually guided above actual results, a Golden Age has ended and he might actually be kicked out by Cook.

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    Posted: 25 July 2012 02:00 AM #5

    Mav - 25 July 2012 04:18 AM

    Don’t pay attention to tone of voice in the CC.

    If Oppenheimer actually guided above actual results, a Golden Age has ended and he might actually be kicked out by Cook.

    but it did seem TC was more somber/tired than in previous calls ... maybe that’s colored by my surprise at the report, though.

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2012 02:23 AM #6

    Nagrani-

    I think we got a clue in that AAPL guidance. How in hell do we beat $7.05 from 4Q11 w/o a new iPhone?

    $7.65 guidance—whether that’s an old sandbag (implying $11.50 earnings) or a new thimble of sand (implying $8.35 earnings)—aside from narrowing margined iPad growth, I don’t see how we clear the extra $1.5-$2 EPS that implies without a mid to late Sept. iPhone launch, capturing initial demand surge in 4Q. iPhone sales in current fiscal: 37M > 35M > 26M > ??

    No new phone, and those question marks look scary.

    However, all that is wild speculation from an anonymous poster (me) who’s exhausted after a long day.

    I did like on the CC that they initially kept referring to it as a “Future Transition” and eventually gave up and just said the issue was because of a new iPhone. Appreciated that bit of honesty.

         
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    Posted: 25 July 2012 04:06 AM #7

    How?  Quite easily.

    I’ll be posting some numbers in my guidance thread shortly. 

    Ask yourself, what was the year-ago rev compare?  If you didn’t yet, you need to take a moment to collect yourself and look at the numbers dispassionately.

    I don’t think you have to worry about flat to negative iPhone growth for fiscal Q4 even if the new iPhone is an October deal.

    [ Edited: 25 July 2012 04:08 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 26 July 2012 09:41 AM #8

    Mav - 25 July 2012 07:06 AM

    How?  Quite easily.

    I’ll be posting some numbers in my guidance thread shortly. 

    Ask yourself, what was the year-ago rev compare?  If you didn’t yet, you need to take a moment to collect yourself and look at the numbers dispassionately.

    I don’t think you have to worry about flat to negative iPhone growth for fiscal Q4 even if the new iPhone is an October deal.

    Without additional carriers and/or no iPhone 5 this quarter the iPhone numbers will definitely be under 26 million. I would be surprised if we were above 20 million under the above circumstances.

         
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 05:46 PM #9

    No question about that.  We probably shouldn’t have _negative_ growth, though, even with the rumor effect and macro worries.

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