Early Q4 Earnings Estimates

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    Posted: 26 July 2012 08:31 AM

    We are past the July report, we have guidance, lets see some early estimates!

    Heres mine:

    $41 bilion Rev
    30 million iphones
    20 million ipads
    5.5 million macs
    GM 42%

    EPS $11.04c

    Roll on October 23rd Earnings report!

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  • Posted: 26 July 2012 09:08 AM #1

    Hmm… are you assuming the new iPhone will be released before October then? Because otherwise, I don’t see any way we are above 26 million iPhones.

         
  • Posted: 26 July 2012 11:56 AM #2

    I have 2 scenarios, both at home.  I’ll post them later

         
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 12:54 PM #3

    Even if the iPhone 5 is shipping on Sept 15, I tend to think they would be hard pressed to get 30 M.

    This quarter, 26 M phones in 13 weeks.  Average 2 M per week, but perhaps 2.5-3 M per week in April.

    Apple is ramping the warehouse, so let’s say 7-12 M iPhone 5 in 2 weeks ?  15 M ?

    When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.

         
  • Posted: 26 July 2012 12:56 PM #4

    Tetrachloride - 26 July 2012 03:54 PM

    When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.

    Have they said this yet?

         
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 03:53 PM #5

    dolemite - 26 July 2012 03:56 PM
    Tetrachloride - 26 July 2012 03:54 PM

    When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.

    Have they said this yet?

    No.  But as a former developer, I have experience with these predictable number of steps.

         
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 04:15 PM #6

    Assume EPS of around mid-$8 or so right up until a new iOS device sells in the quarter in volume.

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    Posted: 26 July 2012 05:21 PM #7

    aapl_trader9891 - 26 July 2012 12:08 PM

    Hmm… are you assuming the new iPhone will be released before October then? Because otherwise, I don’t see any way we are above 26 million iPhones.

    Yes I’m assuming a very strong iPhone launch in Mid September.

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  • Posted: 26 July 2012 06:43 PM #8

    Without new iPhone

    Macintosh    4,800,000
    iPhone
    :     21,500,000
    iPod
    :        5,900,000
    iPad
    :       20,500,000

    34.7 billion revenue
    GM 40
    %

    EPS $8.66 

    With new iPhone in some volume

    Macintosh    4,800,000
    iPhone
    :      27,500,000
    iPod
    :         5,900,000
    iPad
    :        20,500,000

    39 billion revenue
    GM 41
    %

    EPS $10.15 
    [ Edited: 26 July 2012 07:23 PM by roni ]      
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 08:04 PM #9

    Tetrachloride - 26 July 2012 03:54 PM

    Even if the iPhone 5 is shipping on Sept 15, I tend to think they would be hard pressed to get 30 M.

    This quarter, 26 M phones in 13 weeks.  Average 2 M per week, but perhaps 2.5-3 M per week in April.

    Apple is ramping the warehouse, so let’s say 7-12 M iPhone 5 in 2 weeks ?  15 M ?

    When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.

    Wondering what your basing your numbers on?  If we look at the 2nd qtr Apple built about 390K per day.  Foxconn was hiring in the spring to double production at the main plant from 200K to 400K which would bring daily production to about 600K. I would expect Apple to do limited production run for a couple weeks and then start the conversion to full rate.  If we assume 500K pilot and then 200K for 30 days, I would estimate 6.5M new by beginning of Sep.  As far as the software cycle.  If All goes well, we are currently on Beta 3 and I would anticipate a new release every two weeks.  I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August.  Beta tracker

    [ Edited: 26 July 2012 08:27 PM by pats ]      
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 09:12 PM #10

    Hi Pats,

    not based on much.  I mainly wanted to get the thought process out there for us to critique.

         
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    Posted: 26 July 2012 10:51 PM #11

    roni - 26 July 2012 09:43 PM

    Without new iPhone

    Macintosh    4,800,000
    iPhone
    :     21,500,000
    iPod
    :        5,900,000
    iPad
    :       20,500,000

    34.7 billion revenue
    GM 40
    %

    EPS $8.66 

    With new iPhone in some volume

    Macintosh    4,800,000
    iPhone
    :      27,500,000
    iPod
    :         5,900,000
    iPad
    :        20,500,000

    39 billion revenue
    GM 41
    %

    EPS $10.15 

    Hi Roni, thanks for sharing.

    Not sure if you have picked this up or not, but your forecast of 4,800,000 macs would actually be less than Q42011 4,894,000 macs, which would be the first time in 13 quarters that we have a Y-o-Y decrease.

    An argument to expect higher Mac sales:
    - On the conference call TC mentioned that after the June introduction of the new macbooks, mac sales accelerated considerably.
    - Launch of Mountain Lion yesterday to provide a boost, particually some of the new features only available on recent Macs (Airplay Mirroring & PowerNap).
    - New iMacs & Macminis expected this quarter.

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  • Posted: 26 July 2012 11:07 PM #12

    iPad cannabilizes Macs,  that is my thesis.

    [ Edited: 27 July 2012 05:19 PM by roni ]      
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 12:15 AM #13

    roni - 27 July 2012 02:07 AM

    iPad cannabilizes iMacs,  that is my thesis.

    Fair enough.

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 12:58 AM #14

    Apple court filing reveals margins for iPhone (49-58%) and iPad (23-32%).

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/apple-margins-idUSL2E8IQGV520120726

    This might help with estimates.

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 01:37 AM #15

    Apple II+ - 27 July 2012 03:58 AM

    Apple court filing reveals margins for iPhone (49-58%) and iPad (23-32%).

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/apple-margins-idUSL2E8IQGV520120726

    This might help with estimates.

    wow - those iPad margins are lower than I expected.

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