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Early Q4 Earnings Estimates
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We are past the July report, we have guidance, lets see some early estimates!
Heres mine:
$41 bilion Rev
30 million iphones
20 million ipads
5.5 million macs
GM 42%EPS $11.04c
Roll on October 23rd Earnings report!
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Hmm… are you assuming the new iPhone will be released before October then? Because otherwise, I don’t see any way we are above 26 million iPhones.
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I have 2 scenarios, both at home. I’ll post them later
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Even if the iPhone 5 is shipping on Sept 15, I tend to think they would be hard pressed to get 30 M.
This quarter, 26 M phones in 13 weeks. Average 2 M per week, but perhaps 2.5-3 M per week in April.
Apple is ramping the warehouse, so let’s say 7-12 M iPhone 5 in 2 weeks ? 15 M ?
When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.
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When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.
Have they said this yet?
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When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.
Have they said this yet?
No. But as a former developer, I have experience with these predictable number of steps.
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Assume EPS of around mid-$8 or so right up until a new iOS device sells in the quarter in volume.
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Thanks, Steve. -
Hmm… are you assuming the new iPhone will be released before October then? Because otherwise, I don’t see any way we are above 26 million iPhones.
Yes I’m assuming a very strong iPhone launch in Mid September.
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Without new iPhone
Macintosh 4,800,000
iPhone: 21,500,000
iPod: 5,900,000
iPad: 20,500,000
34.7 billion revenue
GM 40%
EPS $8.66With new iPhone in some volume
[ Edited: 26 July 2012 07:23 PM by roni ]Macintosh 4,800,000
iPhone: 27,500,000
iPod: 5,900,000
iPad: 20,500,000
39 billion revenue
GM 41%
EPS $10.15Signature
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Even if the iPhone 5 is shipping on Sept 15, I tend to think they would be hard pressed to get 30 M.
This quarter, 26 M phones in 13 weeks. Average 2 M per week, but perhaps 2.5-3 M per week in April.
Apple is ramping the warehouse, so let’s say 7-12 M iPhone 5 in 2 weeks ? 15 M ?
When developers say that the iOS 6 beta is very largely bug free, then iOS 6 GM is 2-5 weeks away.
Wondering what your basing your numbers on? If we look at the 2nd qtr Apple built about 390K per day. Foxconn was hiring in the spring to double production at the main plant from 200K to 400K which would bring daily production to about 600K. I would expect Apple to do limited production run for a couple weeks and then start the conversion to full rate. If we assume 500K pilot and then 200K for 30 days, I would estimate 6.5M new by beginning of Sep. As far as the software cycle. If All goes well, we are currently on Beta 3 and I would anticipate a new release every two weeks. I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August. Beta tracker
[ Edited: 26 July 2012 08:27 PM by pats ] -
Hi Pats,
not based on much. I mainly wanted to get the thought process out there for us to critique.
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Without new iPhone
Macintosh 4,800,000
iPhone: 21,500,000
iPod: 5,900,000
iPad: 20,500,000
34.7 billion revenue
GM 40%
EPS $8.66With new iPhone in some volume
Macintosh 4,800,000
iPhone: 27,500,000
iPod: 5,900,000
iPad: 20,500,000
39 billion revenue
GM 41%
EPS $10.15Hi Roni, thanks for sharing.
Not sure if you have picked this up or not, but your forecast of 4,800,000 macs would actually be less than Q42011 4,894,000 macs, which would be the first time in 13 quarters that we have a Y-o-Y decrease.
An argument to expect higher Mac sales:
- On the conference call TC mentioned that after the June introduction of the new macbooks, mac sales accelerated considerably.
- Launch of Mountain Lion yesterday to provide a boost, particually some of the new features only available on recent Macs (Airplay Mirroring & PowerNap).
- New iMacs & Macminis expected this quarter.Signature
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iPad cannabilizes iMacs, that is my thesis.
Fair enough.
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Apple court filing reveals margins for iPhone (49-58%) and iPad (23-32%).
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/apple-margins-idUSL2E8IQGV520120726
This might help with estimates.
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Apple court filing reveals margins for iPhone (49-58%) and iPad (23-32%).
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/apple-margins-idUSL2E8IQGV520120726
This might help with estimates.
wow - those iPad margins are lower than I expected.
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