Early Q4 Earnings Estimates

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 02:01 AM #16

    Not a tremendous surprise, but you have to think Apple made a very careful calculation about having information like that (and more) possibly revealed in the course of its many lawsuits.

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 02:20 AM #17

    Those are US margins. asymco has been modeling 33% for iPads globally (via twitter):

    http://yfrog.com/od6r5ip

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  • Posted: 27 July 2012 03:35 PM #18

    roni - 27 July 2012 02:07 AM

    iPad cannabilizes iMacs,  that is my thesis.

    I’m modeling cannibalization at a 1:4 rate. It would be higher (1:3. 1:2) if not for the MacBook Air

    [ Edited: 27 July 2012 03:39 PM by Gregg Thurman ]

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 04:03 PM #19

    roni - 27 July 2012 02:07 AM

    iPad cannabilizes iMacs,  that is my thesis.

    The smallest iMac is 21” and costs $1199. I don’t think many consumers buy an iPad instead of an iMac. It’s possible someone looking at the 11” MB Air at $999 might consider the LTE iPad for $829 instead. But the main products that the iPad cannibalizes are cheap Windows laptops.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 04:13 PM #20

    pats - 26 July 2012 11:04 PM

    I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August.  Beta tracker

    Cool tracker. So what is your estimated date for Apple to send out the next event invitation?

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:19 PM #21

    Drew Bear - 27 July 2012 07:03 PM
    roni - 27 July 2012 02:07 AM

    iPad cannabilizes iMacs,  that is my thesis.

    The smallest iMac is 21” and costs $1199. I don’t think many consumers buy an iPad instead of an iMac. It’s possible someone looking at the 11” MB Air at $999 might consider the LTE iPad for $829 instead. But the main products that the iPad cannibalizes are cheap Windows laptops.

    I meant Mac, not iMac.  I have corrected that now.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:20 PM #22

    Drew Bear - 27 July 2012 07:13 PM
    pats - 26 July 2012 11:04 PM

    I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August.  Beta tracker

    Cool tracker. So what is your estimated date for Apple to send out the next event invitation?

    I would say hold the event on last week of August and then launch Friday after labor day.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 09:51 PM #23

    pats - 27 July 2012 08:20 PM
    Drew Bear - 27 July 2012 07:13 PM
    pats - 26 July 2012 11:04 PM

    I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August.  Beta tracker

    Cool tracker. So what is your estimated date for Apple to send out the next event invitation?

    I would say hold the event on last week of August and then launch Friday after labor day.

    If that happens, there will be a lot of happy Apple fans.

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 11:54 PM #24

    pats - 27 July 2012 08:20 PM
    Drew Bear - 27 July 2012 07:13 PM
    pats - 26 July 2012 11:04 PM

    I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August.  Beta tracker

    Cool tracker. So what is your estimated date for Apple to send out the next event invitation?

    I would say hold the event on last week of August and then launch Friday after labor day.

    I’d like to see a beta 4 or some chatter on how finished iOS 6 currently is first, but I would love to see Apple “turn back the clock” (the way they’re shortening the OS X development cycle) and start launching iPhone with days remaining in the September quarter at least.  Makes sense and Apple does have the resources to shave a couple weeks off the dev schedule here and there, if progress allows.

    [ Edited: 28 July 2012 12:01 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 28 July 2012 12:35 AM #25

    Mav - 28 July 2012 02:54 AM
    pats - 27 July 2012 08:20 PM

    I would say hold the event on last week of August and then launch Friday after labor day.

    I’d like to see a beta 4 or some chatter on how finished iOS 6 currently is first, but I would love to see Apple “turn back the clock” (the way they’re shortening the OS X development cycle) and start launching iPhone with days remaining in the September quarter at least.  Makes sense and Apple does have the resources to shave a couple weeks off the dev schedule here and there, if progress allows.

    The earliest I see it (launch) is Sepetember 21, although a week earlier would improve my Ending Inventory estimates a ton.

    A September 21 launch would add about 4,5 MM iPhones to my FQ4 estimates, and allow Apple to rollout to more markets earlier in FQ1/2013, all of which increases FQ1 potential.  Here’s hoping.

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    Posted: 28 July 2012 08:21 PM #26

    Gregg Thurman - 28 July 2012 03:35 AM
    Mav - 28 July 2012 02:54 AM
    pats - 27 July 2012 08:20 PM

    I would say hold the event on last week of August and then launch Friday after labor day.

    I’d like to see a beta 4 or some chatter on how finished iOS 6 currently is first, but I would love to see Apple “turn back the clock” (the way they’re shortening the OS X development cycle) and start launching iPhone with days remaining in the September quarter at least.  Makes sense and Apple does have the resources to shave a couple weeks off the dev schedule here and there, if progress allows.

    The earliest I see it (launch) is Sepetember 21, although a week earlier would improve my Ending Inventory estimates a ton.

    A September 21 launch would add about 4,5 MM iPhones to my FQ4 estimates, and allow Apple to rollout to more markets earlier in FQ1/2013, all of which increases FQ1 potential.  Here’s hoping.

    There are so many moving pieces that predicting the exact date is a huge challenge.  I agree with Mav with each Beta we move closer to release.  The rumors of new production support a Sept launch, but a lot can happen between now and then.  If we remember back to the iPad 2 launch, a problem with the audio codec chip wasnt found until after launch so supplies were limited.  The guidance for next qtr doesn’t include an iPhone launch necessarily, but that would be typical for Apple.

         
  • Posted: 28 July 2012 10:11 PM #27

    Mav - 28 July 2012 02:54 AM
    pats - 27 July 2012 08:20 PM
    Drew Bear - 27 July 2012 07:13 PM
    pats - 26 July 2012 11:04 PM

    I would anticipate Beta 6 as a GM candidate before the end of August.  Beta tracker

    Cool tracker. So what is your estimated date for Apple to send out the next event invitation?

    I would say hold the event on last week of August and then launch Friday after labor day.

    I’d like to see a beta 4 or some chatter on how finished iOS 6 currently is first, but I would love to see Apple “turn back the clock” (the way they’re shortening the OS X development cycle) and start launching iPhone with days remaining in the September quarter at least.  Makes sense and Apple does have the resources to shave a couple weeks off the dev schedule here and there, if progress allows.

    History shows that the new iOS will wait for the hardware.  With a massive launch anticipated for iPhone 5, this timing is more likely to repeat itself.  The third week of September is my best guess.

         
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    Posted: 28 July 2012 10:44 PM #28

    Seems to me last year, the hardware waited for the iOS.

    Tim Cook may be better than anyone who has lived or will ever live (in his field of “consumer” electronics, anyway) at shortening the wait for hardware.  Call him the “Conductor” (along with the Living God of SCM).

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    Posted: 29 July 2012 05:34 AM #29

    Drew Bear - 27 July 2012 07:03 PM
    roni - 27 July 2012 02:07 AM

    iPad cannabilizes iMacs,  that is my thesis.

    The smallest iMac is 21” and costs $1199. I don’t think many consumers buy an iPad instead of an iMac. It’s possible someone looking at the 11” MB Air at $999 might consider the LTE iPad for $829 instead. But the main products that the iPad cannibalizes are cheap Windows laptops.

    Maybe the $599 macmini is a bit more of a victim than any other Mac.

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