Samsung copying apple: a brilliant move.

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    Posted: 30 July 2012 01:29 PM #16

    Lstream - 30 July 2012 12:46 PM
    omacvi - 30 July 2012 07:12 AM

    This is about fairness and rule of law.  But as far as damage, that is debatable since Apple sells every iPhone and iPad they can make.

    Apple sold 26M iPhones this past quarter.  They sold 37M and 35M in the preceding quarters.  Clearly they can make more than 26M phones per quarter.  I have never agreed with this “sell everything they can make” argument.  Now we have hard evidence that it is wrong.

    Inventory control and build up and gradual roll out makes it possible to deliver units over a longer period.  Had they been able to build and deliver 98 million iPhones in two quarters they would have done it.  There is a reason they don’t make it available in 100 countries all at once.  Mind you there are 100 more countries waiting for it.

    Demand also fluctuates from quarter to quarter and they must draw down as they transition to new models.  All very complex but the best CEO is on the job doing an incredible job.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 02:13 PM #17

    Trends are trends until they aren’t.

    Apple stopped making all the iPhones it could in fiscal Q1.  Now we’re looking more cyclical. Nothing unreasonable there.

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    Posted: 30 July 2012 02:15 PM #18

    Lstream - 30 July 2012 12:46 PM

    I have never agreed with this “sell everything they can make” argument.

    Apple only claims that for the first few months of a new iPhone or iPad release. They also tell us when supply has met demand. I think TC would prefer making enough product to meet demand sooner rather than later. I bet he grits his teeth when he has to report a supply/demand imbalance for a 2nd quarter.

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 02:35 PM #19

    Drew Bear - 30 July 2012 05:15 PM
    Lstream - 30 July 2012 12:46 PM

    I have never agreed with this “sell everything they can make” argument.

    Apple only claims that for the first few months of a new iPhone or iPad release. They also tell us when supply has met demand. I think TC would prefer making enough product to meet demand sooner rather than later. I bet he grits his teeth when he has to report a supply/demand imbalance for a 2nd quarter.

    That argument has been used in discussions here for quite some time to say that Android has had no material impact on iPhone sales, because Apple was selling every device they can make.  That is what I have never agreed with, not anything that Apple themselves have ever said.  It was used again earlier in this thread to say that Samsung damages are going to be hard to prove, since Apple was selling everything they can make.  I don’t agree, and I think the last few quarters of results proves the point, beyond a shadow of a doubt.  We have a demand issue now, not a supply issue.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 07:00 PM #20

    No one expected iPhone to grow at 100% YOY forever.

    Megatrends are converging.  The multi-year rise of the smartphone.  Saturation in many markets.  Economic worries.  Diminishing returns with adding carries (with a few giant exceptions).

    Lstream, yes you can look at the data in different ways but let me ask you this.  If Apple finishes the fiscal year with around 60% YOY iPhone growth, which it should be able to meet without much difficulty since it only has to match Q4 2011’s unit sales, how would you say Apple did overall?

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  • Posted: 30 July 2012 07:19 PM #21

    Mav - 30 July 2012 10:00 PM

    No one expected iPhone to grow at 100% YOY forever.

    Megatrends are converging.  The multi-year rise of the smartphone.  Saturation in many markets.  Economic worries.  Diminishing returns with adding carries (with a few giant exceptions).

    Lstream, yes you can look at the data in different ways but let me ask you this.  If Apple finishes the fiscal year with around 60% YOY iPhone growth, which it should be able to meet without much difficulty since it only has to match Q4 2011’s unit sales, how would you say Apple did overall?

    60% YOY is clearly outstanding.  But if we just match Q4, 2011, then the YOY trend will look like:

    128%, 88%, 27%, 0%.  That trend line will have the entire blogosphere and financial community howling that the iPhone growth story is over, and the 60% won’t matter, until Q1 possibly rescues us.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 07:26 PM #22

    I don’t see us just matching btw.

    Expectations seem pretty…even-keeled? for Apple right now.  The Sep 21 news getting out is troublesome in the near term, BUT Apple has some levers it could pull if it so chose…like repricing the 4S a little early.

    Now that Tim Cook is furious? aware? raspberry about the Sep 21 launch date being a known quantity, that gives him 7 weeks or so to…motivate? LOL the troops and supply chain to possibly pull off the most epic iPhone launch of all time.  I think that 37M iPhone quarter showed us what he’s capable of.

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    Posted: 30 July 2012 07:44 PM #23

    Lstream - 30 July 2012 10:19 PM

    60% YOY is clearly outstanding.  But if we just match Q4, 2011, then the YOY trend will look like:

    128%, 88%, 27%, 0%.  That trend line will have the entire blogosphere and financial community howling that the iPhone growth story is over, and the 60% won’t matter, until Q1 possibly rescues us.

    I think Mav meant 60% growth over the entire fiscal year, not from quarter to quarter. 72 million in FY2011 to a very conservative ~115 million in FY2012. I think most people realize that the heaviest iPhone sales will be during the first two quarters after launch with sales tapering off the third and fourth quarter. The quarterly comparables are “off” this year because this is the first year after the iPhone started to launch in the fall.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 07:50 PM #24

    There were no misunderstandings.  The Q4 2012 iPhone sales number will be a big question mark for about three months thanks in part to the rumor all-but-confirmation today.

    In a way comparing FY ‘12 to FY ‘13 isn’t 100% comparable either because of pent-up demand, 14 weeks in the quarter, etc.  But it all kinda evens out, sorta, so I’ll keep using YOY.

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    Posted: 31 July 2012 02:04 PM #25

    From a liveblog of the Apple v. Samsung trial:

    25 years covering courts, and haven’t seen big name law firm partner eviscerated in court like that….i think i see an intestine on the court floor

    by hmintz 11:02 AM

    Samsung atty Charles Quinn trying to get judge to rehear an issue, and she just blasts him..“I want you to sit down, please!”

    by hmintz 11:01 AM

    Now, Apple revealing internal Samsung memos after iPhone release…“Easy to copy” said one….no wonder Samsung didn’t want this stuff in….

    by hmintz edited by hmintz 11:52 AM

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    Posted: 31 July 2012 04:07 PM #26

    mySingle email deletion…

    Google advisories…

    Those lookalike products Aople will jump on (3GS-esque Galaxy, USB charger square, charge cable)...

    Trials are incredibly unpredictable (Oracle trial) but this is worth breaking out the popcorn for.

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