Weekend Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 04:58 PM

    What a week!  Nice oversold bounce today…

    [ Edited: 01 August 2012 10:19 AM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:03 PM #1

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:18 PM #2

    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:20 PM #3

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM
    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.

    Thanks for really putting it all in perspective…I needed that right now.  Hope Sammy continues to improve.  Good luck.

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  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:24 PM #4

    iPad - any thoughts here?  I still think it is nothing more than an oversold bounce.  Next week there are some pretty huge meetings (both the ECB and the FED) .... jobs numbers on Friday….end of month also next week.  The commentary from Europe continues to be commentary with no action…I still think AAPL goes lower before we go up ... but to be honest ... nothing makes sense…the world is not a logical place anymore.  Do you disagree? Well you shouldn’t…just look at AMZN’s P/E and price.  It blows me away.  What are your thoughts?  Charts say anything to you?

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:29 PM #5

    Treasury Sec. Geithner to travel to Germany and meet with ECB’s Draghi on Monday evening—- Breaking News flash…

    Does this mean some global coordination?
    Ok - I need to keep all sharp objects away from myself this weekend till I calm down a bit.

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:30 PM #6

    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:20 PM
    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM
    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.

    Thanks for really putting it all in perspective…I needed that right now.  Hope Sammy continues to improve.  Good luck.

    Thanks, Phoebes.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:31 PM #7

    There were order imbalances on the buy side on the bell. I think it was a $1bln buy program.

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  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:32 PM #8

    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:29 PM

    Treasury Sec. Geithner to travel to Germany and meet with ECB’s Draghi on Monday evening—- Breaking News flash…

    Does this mean some global coordination?
    Ok - I need to keep all sharp objects away from myself this weekend till I calm down a bit.

    I’m hoping for a bunch of good news over the weekend. Maybe we get some rally to save some of my OCT 600 calls.. Luckily, that’s smaller part of my account.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:34 PM #9

    Preparing the way for I-TV:

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/07/apple-inc-aapl-files-a-patent-to-control-devices-in-your-home-via-nfc/

    This technology would look wonderful on a mini-IPad, as the controller for Apple TV.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 05:38 PM #10

    will AAPL go lower….

    who knows after this week…..the reasonable man would say yes….but there is that dividend overhang just days away now….has to be playing a factor….

    would love to see a challenge of 595 and then maybe 600 sooner than later…. ok given our ridiculous market multiple maybe TC and PO starts buying back shares sooner than later….give us some solid support…so we can start the path back to 650…

    really when you think about it….any price under 600 is cheap…period.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:39 PM #11

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM
    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.


    sending good thoughts to Sammy…I have a separate cc I keep for those “little”  3k vet/pet emergencies.  It’s worth every penny.

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    “My mind hovers on hummingbird wings.”  D. Eggers

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:43 PM #12

    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:17 PM

    (...)
    I worry about getting caught up in my hopes or in some insane euphoria again and not trading my account appropriately and RATIONALLY. I lightened up a bit…maybe I should have lightened up a little bit more.  I don’t even know anymore…nothing is making sense….I need a drink.  iPad, please start the Weekend thread!

    I sold half of everything.  If we never see this price again, the other half can enjoy the profits.  If we go lower, I can buy everything back cheaper.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 05:48 PM #13

    RG, I’m so sorry about Sammy and hope he’s on the mend ASAP.  Check out pet insurance: http://www.gopetplan.com/

    Fenway’s legs were $4K each…80% covered.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 06:05 PM #14

    oh yes and add to next week the APPL vs. Samsung trial

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 06:07 PM #15

    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:24 PM

    iPad - any thoughts here?  I still think it is nothing more than an oversold bounce.  Next week there are some pretty huge meetings (both the ECB and the FED) .... jobs numbers on Friday….end of month also next week.  The commentary from Europe continues to be commentary with no action…I still think AAPL goes lower before we go up ... but to be honest ... nothing makes sense…the world is not a logical place anymore.  Do you disagree? Well you shouldn’t…just look at AMZN’s P/E and price.  It blows me away.  What are your thoughts?  Charts say anything to you?

    I am assuming it’s an oversold bounce until proven otherwise.  We’re sitting at the 38% retracement of the move from 609 to 570—that’s sufficient retrace for continuation (down).  So we shall see.

    The slope of the weekly MACD-h went negative again, indicating the consolidation period isn’t over.  Often (but not always), a sell-off of this magnitude isn’t over this quickly, nor is it only one leg.  There’s usually an oversold bounce, followed by another leg down.  My targets: 565—> 550—> 535

    Last year, we spent most of the year consolidating.  That 200+ point sprint didn’t change the way this stock trades.  The bulk of the time we are range-bound, then we get short, violent bursts to the upside, forging new ground.

    How many times did we test that 350 area last year?  First half of the year, it was resistance, then it converted to support.  I thought that level would be 580 this year.  Now I think it’s 550. 

    Now, if the SPY goes parabolic (on anticipation or reality of QE), we may (or may not) go along for the ride.

    [ Edited: 27 July 2012 06:15 PM by lovemyipad ]